UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira (November 12, 2022)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira (for middleweight title)
Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili (for strawweight title)
Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez
Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano
Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann
Erin Blanchfield vs. Molly McCann
Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Silvana Gomez
Michael Trizano vs. Seungwoo Choi
Julio Arce vs. Montel Jackson
Carlos Ulberg vs. Nicolae Negumereanu

[agendaman]

why not. frankie edgar at plus 188.

[GunShard]

[Brandt Moat]

Got him on my 2 leg Upset parlay with Spann. He is a fookn dog. One more time Frankie. Let's Go!

why not. frankie edgar at plus 188.

[Brandt Moat]

I am rolling with a bunch of + $ on this card. Got Chandler with Petroski on a parlay. I am on Pereira flat for 500 at +145. Let's get em boys! We got a card to get excited about. Get the fook off your azz' and get some!

[Allure]

Agreed. This card has dogs barking written all over it.

Chandler, Pereira ITD, Puelles, Frevola are must plays.

Poirier beating washed up grandpa Conor doesn't mean shit. Every Top 10 if not 15 in LW can beat Conor. Chandler has been more active and odds on Poirier are a joke.
Pereira since I hope he beats that clown. Watch out for Adesanya wrestling and running for 5 rounds. If it goes the distance Adesanya wins no matter what, Uncle Dana will make sure of that. So hope Pereira finishes him thus ITD. ITD is the only chance Pereira has so don't bother taking the moneyline, ITD much better value.
Hooker is a punching bag that shouldn't be favored to anyone. Frevola just because Ottman hasn't fought in ages after that weird shit he pulled during Covid and was cut afterwards. Hadn't lit the world on fire prior to that either tbh.

Only fav I feel 100% comfortable is Weili. Weili ITD a must play as well.

More plays may follow who knows.

Good luck everyone.

[GunShard]

Chandler can only win when he finishes the fight like he did against Ferguson.
I say Gaethje and Poirier can only defeat Chandler by decision.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups - MMA MANIA






155 lbs.: Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar

Upsets of Jalin Turner and Luis Pena gave way to a lengthy layoff for Matt Frevola (9-3-1), followed by losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Terrance McKinney. “The Steamrolla” ultimately righted the ship in Jan. 2022, pounding out fellow Contender Series graduate, Genaro Valdez, in a three-minute slugfest.
He’s submitted three professional foes and knocked out two others.
Ottman Azaitar (13-0) entered the Octagon on a three-fight knockout streak, then made it four with a vicious one-punch wipeout of Teemu Packalen. He did much the same to Khama Worthy just one year later, overpowering him just 93 seconds into the fight for his second consecutive “Performance of the Night” bonus.
He fights for the first time in 27 months.
This boils down to whether Frevola can keep his cool. The man loves to slug it out, and while he’ll definitely want to get Azaitar’s respect, he can’t rush things. “Bulldozer” hits hard enough to spark him the way Polo Reyes and the aforementioned McKinney did, but he’s coming off a long layoff and has faded down the stretch before. In other words, Frevola has to push a hard pace without leaving himself open to a one-hitter quitter.
I think he’s got what it takes. He’s a considerable step up from Azaitar’s previous opponents and it’s hard to overlook the rust, drug test and other out-of-cage issues dogging Azaitar. If he can avoid the instantaneous wipeout, “Steamrolla” runs over “Bulldozer” with a late finish.
Prediction: Frevola via third round technical knockout
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115 lbs.: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (13-7) went from opening her UFC career 5-2, those losses coming to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha, to losing five straight. She finally snapped a nearly four-year winless streak in June 2022, finishing Felice Herrig via rear-naked choke.
She surrenders one inch of reach to “La Malvada.”
Grappling issues cost Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-4) in her first two UFC appearances, resulting in armbar defeats to Lupita Godinez and Vanessa Demopoulos. The trend wasn’t to last, as she subsequently crushed armbar special Liang Na in just 82 seconds.
That victory marked her seventh by knockout and ninth finish overall.
Kowalkiewicz looked a lot like her old self against Herrig, overwhelming “Lil’ Bulldog” with constant combination punching and tearing her up with knees inside. She also showed off her old tendencies to stand bolt upright with her chin exposed, which you may recall from the time Jessica Andrade knocked her block off. Gomez Juarez is a sufficiently powerful puncher to recreate that disaster and more than fast enough to catch Kowalkiewicz when she leaves herself exposed.
I’m not saying Kowalkiewicz can’t overwhelm her with volume or bully her into an ill-advised grappling exchange, but the former’s willingness to engage and the amount of damage she’s accumulated over the years suggests that she’ll end up on the wrong end of Gomez Juarez’s right cross before she can get any real attrition going.
Prediction: Gomez Juarez via first round technical knockout
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145 lbs.: Mike Trizano vs. Seung Woo Choi

Two years after suffering his first professional loss to Grant Dawson, The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27 winner, Mike Trizano 10-3), returned in a big way by upsetting the highly touted Ludovit Klein. He’s yet to recapture that success, falling short in 2022 battles with Hakeem Dawodu and Lucas Almeida.
He faces a 3.5-inch reach disadvantage and a one-inch height disadvantage.
Seung Woo Choi (10-5) shook off a winless (0-2) UFC start to win his next three, most notably stopping Alex Caceres in just 97 seconds. A comeback submission loss to Alex Caceres followed, after which he dropped a split decision to Joshua Culibao.
“Sting” has scored six knockouts as a professional.
The real intrigue here lies in how their flaws will interact. Trizano is the better technician, but can be far too reluctant to let his hands go. Choi is the faster of the two and the heavier hitter, but extremely defensively porous and one-note with his combinations. It’s a question of whether Trizano can pull the trigger to exploit the openings Choi leaves while attacking.
I’ll bite the bullet and say, “Yes.” Choi isn’t nearly as versatile an eight-limb striker as Klein, Dawodu nor Almeida, which should make Trizano less hesitant to find a home for his counters. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Choi blitz him to death, but Trizano will land enough clean counters to earn the win.
Prediction: Trizano via unanimous decision
Related
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135 lbs.: Julio Arce vs. Montel Jackson

Julio Arce (18-5) knocked out Peter Petties to earn a UFC berth, then made the most of it by dominating Dan Ige and Daniel Teymur. That would prove to be his last win streak to date because he has alternated losses and wins in his current 3-3 stretch.
The 10 professional finishes for Arce are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
The Montel Jackson (11-2) knockout of Rico DiSciullo on Contender Series didn’t earn him a UFC contract, but he soon stepped up on short notice to meet Ricky Simon at UFC 227. Though he fell short in that fight, “Quik” has since won five of six, two of them inside the distance.
He stands three inches taller than Arce and will have a nearly half-foot reach advantage.
Arce is an absolute joy to watch. He’s a gatekeeper in a non-derogatory way; however, if you’ve neglected your technical striking in favor of raw aggression or an “unconventional” approach, he’ll make you look downright stupid. He can be overpowered by heavier hitters, though, and that’s a bad sign for his chances here. Jackson is one of the biggest Bantamweights on the roster and packs the punching power to match, so while his stand up may lack the depth of Arce’s, he’s got the physical abilities to make up for it.
The only real answer to Jackson seems to be taking him down, which Arce ostensibly lacks the means to do. Arce still has an outside chance of threading the needle and pot-shotting his way to victory, but odds are that Jackson levels him with a straight left down the pipe.
Prediction: Jackson via first round technical knockout
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205 lbs.: Carlos Ulberg vs. Nicolae Negumereanu

Carlos Ulberg (7-1) crushed Bruno Oliveira on Contender Series to earn a UFC berth, only to fall to Kennedy Nzechukwu in their UFC 259 “Fight of the Night.” After cruising past Fabio Cherant to get back in the win column, he took just 65 seconds to knock out fellow Contender Series graduate, Tafon Nchukwi, in June 2022.
“Black Jag” stands four inches taller than Nicolae Negumereanu (13-1), but gives up one inch of reach.
“Nicu’s” UFC career started on the wrong foot, as he dropped a decision to Saparbeg Safarov before spending two years on the sidelines. He’s perfect (4-0) since, including knockouts of Ike Villanueva and Ihor Potieria.
His 11 stoppage wins include eight by form of knockout.
For as dangerous as he can be when he gets going, Negumereanu is often a test of composure more than anything else. He’s not that fast, not that technical a striker, and not that effective a wrestler, but he is absolutely relentless. Prior foes like Aleksa Camur have gotten caught up in teeing off on his unprotected face and allowed “Nicu” to steadily wear them down, and if Ulberg falls into the same trap he did against Nzechukwu, it’s not hard to envision him suffering a similar fate.
That said, Ulberg’s win over Fabio Cherant showed that he can stink out the joint with a keep-away approach if needed. There’s not much Negumereanu can do to him if Ulberg takes a conservative approach, constantly circling and picking away with jabs and check hooks. So long as Ulberg minds his P’s and Q’s and doesn’t try to force a finish, he’ll cruise to victory.
Prediction: Ulberg via unanimous decision


155 lbs.: Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano

Brad Riddell (10-3) opened his UFC career perfect (4-0), scoring post-fight bonuses for his absolute wars with Jamie Mullarkey and Drew Dober. Subsequent efforts proved less successful, as “Quake” fell victim to a third-round wheel kick from Rafael Fiziev and a 45-second guillotine choke from Jalin Turner.
He faces a four-inch height disadvantage and a one-inch reach disadvantage.
After consecutive defeats to Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung sent Renato Moicano (16-5-1) from Featherweight to Lightweight, he worked his way into contention with three submission victories in four appearances. Then came a last-minute main event against Rafael dos Anjos, who overpowered Moicano over five rounds to leave him 3-4 in his last seven.
Nine of his professional wins have come by submission.
If Riddell can take this into deep waters, or even just the second round, he’ll bury Moicano in pressure and power. As tough as Moicano is, he’s been overwhelmed on multiple occasions, even in fights where he had height and reach advantages.
Unfortunately, I don’t think “Quake” lasts that long. He’s been a slow starter throughout his Octagon career, struggling to either get his striking going or stop opponents’ takedowns until the end of the first. Moicano is not shy about implementing his wrestling as quickly as possible, and while Riddell generally survives the early struggle, Moicano is easily the most accomplished submission artist Riddell has yet faced. In the end, Moicano either taps him quick or gets bludgeoned down the stretch ... and I’m guessing it’ll be the former.
Prediction: Moicano via first round submission
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205 lbs.: Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann

Six consecutive UFC victories earned Dominick Reyes (12-3) a crack at then-champion, Jon Jones, who handed “The Devastator” his first professional defeat via controversial decision. A second title shot saw him stopped by Jan Blachowicz, after which he succumbed to a Jiri Prochazka spinning elbow in a 2021 “Fights of the Year” candidate.
He fights for the first time in 18 months.
Ryan Spann (20-7) battled his way to a mint (4-0) UFC start, scoring finishes of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Devin Clark along the way. “Superman” now sits at 2-2 in his last four with performance bonuses for his first-round finishes of Misha Cirkunov and Ion Cutelaba.
Seventeen of his wins have come inside the distance, including 12 via submission.
This is a wellness check for Reyes. Spann’s incredible physical gifts are hamstrung by poor durability and a tendency to fall apart in the face of adversity, which should hypothetically make him a prime target for a sniper like Reyes. In addition, Reyes’ historically stout takedown defense also figures to take Spann’s dangerous submission game off the table, and the way “The Devastator” kept pace with Jiri Prochazka suggests that Spann can’t just blitz him.
This is all assuming Reyes is still in peak condition after two brutal knockout losses, though. I’ll be optimistic and say the rest does him some good, allowing him to catch Spann with a straight left for an early finish.
Prediction: Reyes via first round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Erin Blanchfield vs. Molly McCann

Erin Blanchfield (9-1) put together a 5-1 record in Invicta — the sole loss coming to Tracy Cortez — en route to the Octagon. She’s proven similarly successful in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, winning three straight and most recently choking out J.J. Aldrich.
She’ll enjoy a six-inch reach advantage over “Meatball.”
Molly McCann (13-4) bounced back from an unsuccessful UFC debut by winning three straight, but proved unable to keep the momentum going against Taila Santos and Lara Fritzen. Undaunted, she went on to win another three fights and secure “Performance of the Night” bonuses for her spinning elbow finishes of Luana Carolina and Hannah Goldy.
All six of her professional stoppages have come by knockout.
The last couple times McCann stepped up to this level of competition, things went poorly for her. A big part of that is her wrestling; though she’s developed some decent takedown chops, her defense has consistently failed her at the highest levels. That’s a massive issue against a ground artist as decorated as Blanchfield, who has a history of mauling opponents on the mat.
Though McCann does have her aggressive stand up to lean on, Blanchfield’s no slouch there, either, and the persistent threat of a level change figures to narrow that gap even further. With enough striking skills to hold her own in McCann’s wheelhouse and the option to take it to the mat whenever things get hairy, expect Blanchfield to dominate.
Prediction: Blanchfield via unanimous decision
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185 lbs.: Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman

Andre Petroski (8-1) — Team Ortega’s top Middleweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 29 — saw his run cut short in the semifinals thanks to a Bryan Battle guillotine. He’s since found his footing with three straight UFC stoppages, among them a 76-second submission of Nick Maximov.
His eight professional finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Wellington Turman (18-5) struggled his way to a 1-3 UFC start, highlighted by knockout losses to Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva. He subsequently returned to the win column with a narrow decision over Sam Alvey, then tapped Misha Cirkunov with a bonus-winning armbar for his first Octagon finish.
“The Prodigy” gives up one inch of reach to Petroski.
With all due respect to Turman, I’m just not seeing how he wins this. He’ll struggle mightily to impose his grappling on a wrestler of Petroski’s caliber, and the latter has also shown off the technical striking needed to bring his considerable power to bear. Turman can often rely on being the superior athlete to make up for his shortcomings, an advantage he decidedly does not have in this matchup.
Turman’s best chance lies in tapping Petroski off of his back, but that assumes Petroski won’t physically overwhelm him from the top like Bruno Silva did or just keep it on the feet. Having said that, odds are that Petroski just blasts him into oblivion in the first two minutes.
Prediction: Petroski via first round technical knockout

[JIBBBY]

Few other thoughts -

Brad Riddell (+100) vs. Renato Moicano (-120)

I’d recommend not betting on this one — Moicano’s got some series defensive issues lately and Riddell has a habit of starting slow. There are better betting opportunities.

Dominick Reyes (-205) vs. Ryan Spann (+175)

It’s rare that I’ll lean toward a man on a three-fight losing streak, but I really like the lines on Reyes. Though impressively powerful and opportunistic with his submissions, Spann tends to fall apart whenever things go wrong and has a shaky chin to boot. Reyes’ accuracy and ability to keep his wits about him should allow him to find the mark with a game-changing shot before long, and all that’ll be left afterward is cleanup.

Erin Blanchfield (-390) vs. Molly McCann (+320)

Blanchfield is by far the toughest opponent McCann has faced since her last defeat and she has the same sort of grappling prowess that gave “Meatball” fits in her three UFC losses. She’s levels above McCann on the ground and can hold her own on the feet, so don’t be afraid to slot her into some parlays.

Andre Petroski (-195) vs. Wellington Turman (+165)

Petroski strikes me as undervalued. Though his UFC competition has been limited, he’s shown steady improvements in every area, and I absolutely like his chances against someone who barely eked out a win over Sam Alvey last year. His power and wrestling chops are a huge stylistic issue for Turman, making him a quality investment.

Ottman Azaitar (-115) vs. Matt Frevola (-105)

Be very careful about putting down a lot of money here. I’ve been vocal about not liking to bet on fights where one fighter’s coming off a big layoff, but it’s hard to pass up Frevola. He’s shared the Octagon with far, far stiffer competition than Azaitar, whose history of gassing is a bad sign against Frevola’s punishing pace.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-120) vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez (EVEN)

Look, if I keep recommending underdog women, one of them’s got to hit eventually, right?
In all seriousness, Gomez Juarez has a serious edge in power and hand speed that should carry her past the similarly aged, but far more weathered, Kowalkiewicz. “La Malvada’s” biggest issues lie on the ground and Kowalkiewicz has never been a consistent takedown artist, so Gomez Juarez should get the striking battle she needs to win.

Seung Woo Choi (-165) vs. Michael Trizano (+140)

I’d avoid this because Choi leaves huge openings when he attacks, but Trizano can be too hesitant to actually exploit them. I feel like watching this with money on the line is just begging for a headache.

Montel Jackson (-200) vs. Julio Arce (+170)

Bet on Jackson, though not a whole lot. As marvelous a technician as Arce is, he’s facing a massive size disadvantage and has been buckled by heavy hitters in the past. Grinding wrestlers are what tend to trouble Jackson and Arce does not fit that bill.
Plus, Arce alternates wins and losses and he’s coming off a decision over Daniel Santos.

Carlos Ulberg (-120) vs. Nicolae Negumereanu (EVEN)

Definitely give me Ulberg here. Negumereanu’s straightforward, plodding approach works against opponents who get caught up trying to match his pace or punish his exposed-but-indestructible chin. Ulberg, however, showed against Fabio Cherant that he can play a boring keep-away game for 15 minutes, and his counters were on point in his last match with Tafon Nchukwi. In short, place a moderate bet on “Black Jag.”

[Thor4140]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">conor mcgregor seeing a fan cardboard cut out. <a href="https://t.co/YXPJY9c15r">pic.twitter.com/YXPJY9c15r</a></p>&mdash; Dovy�� (@DovySimuMMA) <a href="https://twitter.com/DovySimuMMA/status/1589306893310128128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >November 6, 2022</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[209 Life]

I am rolling with a bunch of + $ on this card. Got Chandler with Petroski on a parlay. I am on Pereira flat for 500 at +145. Let's get em boys! We got a card to get excited about. Get the fook off your azz' and get some!

Only thing you rolling is brown bammer weed. You broke dikk

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Brandt Moat]

Cheeta Piss, Grape Cake, Ice Cream Cake and I can't remember the other strain because I'm so stoned from the 4 different kinds of kind bud I have. What I can't afford is the time to argue with a 209 Low Life fook.

Only thing you rolling is brown bammer weed. You broke dikk

[209 Life]

Cheeta Piss, Grape Cake, Ice Cream Cake and I can't remember the other strain because I'm so stoned from the 4 different kinds of kind bud I have. What I can't afford is the time to argue with a 209 Low Life fook.

You smoke piss? Makes sense now

[JIBBBY]

My bets - mostly prop bets to beat the odds and a few hedges based on + prop odds going both ways.

I feel like sharing today after capping every fight. Let's see what sticks fellas?

GL everyone!



1) Ulberg Dec/ hedged Nicole Neg ITD prop
2) Jackson - Dec
3) Mike Trizano - Straight and by Dec
4) Silvana Gomez Jaurez - ITD
5) Azaitar - Straight and by KO
6) Andre Petroski - ITD
7) Erin Blanchfeild - Dec/ hedged MCcann KO prop
8) Reyes - ITD
9) Riddell -ITD/ hedged Moicano - SUB prop
10) Gutierrez - ITD
11) Michael Chandler - Straight.. (not confident but taking a shot at those odds, Chandler always comes to fight)
12) Esparza - Dec (hoping her wrestling kicks in for a lay and pray dec)
13) Israel - Straight (paying the HEAVY odds and playing to close out the event strong)

[Brandt Moat]

Can't wait. Gotta get a few things done and it's TIME. Let's go! With ya Jib on Petroski. Lost some value on Chandler. I had to take him at +150 last week when at casino. Lost $125 on my $500 bet on Pereira(if he wins) as it stands now.Enjoy another stacked card!GL

[Brandt Moat]

Petroski ITD is money. Wish I woulda got in on some of that.

[Brandt Moat]

What do you think the most likely path of victory for Izzy? Dec,?

[JIBBBY]

What do you think the most likely path of victory for Izzy? Dec,?

Probably wins by decision. I paid the price to play the straight myself as I didn't want to take any chances.

[Brandt Moat]

That's what I think would be the path. I hope Pereira gets up in there and wins the clinch. Works some elbows. Everybody talking bout Pereira with 4oz. gloves. I'm concerned because he took so many shots before he KOed Izzy. Pereira can get stretched by Izzy. Should be interesting. Possible war!

[Brandt Moat]

Good Luck Jib. Getn ready and going to friends to watch.

[JIBBBY]

Good Luck Jib. Getn ready and going to friends to watch.

Thanks same to you! Let's win some money on this bitch!

[209 Life]

Good Luck Jib. Getn ready and going to friends to watch.

Thanks same to you! Let's win some money on this bitch!

Good Luck Jib. Getn ready and going to friends to watch.

Sounds like you both want to fukk each other

[JIBBBY]

Sounds like you both want to fukk each other

I want to fukk you..

[JIBBBY]

Trizano was on a mission. Dropped Chow Young Phat! Wow, good fight.

[209 Life]

I'll drop Jibby & Brandt at same time. 2 Broke dikks from Ohio

[JIBBBY]

I'll drop Jibby & Brandt at same time. 2 Broke dikks from Ohio

Watch the tough guy. I'm from Cali but own property in Ohio. Get it straight..

[209 Life]

Watch the tough guy. I'm from Cali but own property in Ohio. Get it straight..

No you outed yourself you live in Dayton Ohio you lying fukk.

[JIBBBY]

Shit Azaitar you got dropped

[JIBBBY]

No you outed yourself you live in Dayton Ohio you lying fukk.

Get a 209 Life pal. Watch the fights and go play with someone else on the forums. I don't lie, cheat or steal.

[209 Life]

Get a 209 Life pal. Watch the fights and go play with someone else on the forums. I don't lie, cheat or steal.

You talk all the shit about Nate & Nick let's see you talk where I live pussy boy.

[JIBBBY]

You talk all the shit about Nate & Nick let's see you talk where I live pussy boy.

Nate and Nick Diaz are pure trailer trash ghetto tough guys. If not for MMA both would be cooking meth in their stolen trailers. No telling what you are doing in your ghetto hood? Real contribution TONY!!

[JC2008]

Holy f uck no wonder this forum's dead. Keyboard fighting. Fresno State can suck a dick.

[209 Life]

Holy f uck no wonder this forum's dead. Keyboard fighting. Fresno State can suck a dick.

Sure thing community college dropout.

[JIBBBY]

Stockton, California can suck a dick! Shit hole.