UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann (September 18, 2021)

**PaperTrail07** · 09-09-21, 12:20 PM

Good Stuff.....Loaded Card 15 fights wowza....

**magpie878** · 09-09-21, 12:46 PM

Smith by sub is always live

**Sanity Check** · 09-11-21, 12:08 AM

Early start time.

But not as early as the previous event.

**JIBBBY** · 09-15-21, 03:55 PM

I'm not that confident anymore betting on Smith but this seems like a fight he should win in the main.

**JIBBBY** · 09-16-21, 10:00 AM

MMA mania writeups - Prelims

135 lbs.: Montel Jackson vs. J.P. Buys

Montel Jackson (10-2) rebounded from his UFC debut loss to Ricky Simon with three consecutive wins, only to fall just short against veteran Brett Johns in July 2020. Undaunted, “Quik” returned to the win column in March 2021 with a two-minute knockout of Jesse Strader.
He stands five inches taller than J.P. Buys (9-3) and will have an 8.5-inch reach advantage.
Three years after falling to Joby Sanchez in his first “Contender Series” bid, Buys redeemed himself with a contract-winning performance against Jacob Silva. Four months later, he made his UFC debut against Bruno Silva, who handed “Young Savage” his third professional defeat midway through the second round.
He steps in for Danaa Batgerel, who ran into **** issues, on just under one month’s notice.
What struck me about Buys’ loss to Silva wasn’t that he came up short, but that he seemed terrified to even attempt a takedown. Even when Silva had thoroughly proven his superiority on the feet, Buys just went on trading with him. He’d be in trouble against Jackson even if I could trust him to execute his gameplan, as “Quik” is one of the biggest and heaviest-handed Bantamweights on the roster. Knowing that he’s every bit as likely to screw himself over again is just icing on the cake.
Buys theoretically has the skills to win this, as Jackson has struggled with persistent takedown artists in the past. Between the size difference, Jackson’s punching power, and Buys’ seeming inability to fight to the best of his abilities, though, that strikes me as a pipedream. Jackson puts him down with heavy strikes in the first round.
Prediction: Jackson via first round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Erin Blanchfield vs. Sarah Alpar

Erin Blanchfield (6-1) won her first three professional fights, including a majority decision over current UFC standout Kay Hansen, before narrowly falling to Tracy Cortez. “Cold Blooded” has since won three straight, among them a head kick finish of Victoria Leonardo.
This will be her first fight in over a year, as a planned April debut against Norma Dumont fell through when the latter badly missed weight.
Sarah Alpar (9-5) brought the LFA Bantamweight title into the Contender Series, where she choked out Shanna Young to earn herself a UFC contract. After one year on the sidelines, “Too Sweet” made her Octagon debut proper against Jessca-Rose Clark, who stopped her with strikes late in the third round.
She has knocked out and submitted two professional opponents apiece.
Blanchfield is a legitimately excellent prospect, a top-notch ground artist whose striking and wrestling are quickly catching up. I was impressed enough to pick her against Dumont despite the late notice and Dumont’s enormous size advantage, and while she didn’t get a chance to prove me right, I like her to make a triumphant debut here.
Alpar generally relies on her well-credentialed wrestling to compensate for her limited standup, and while her cut from Bantamweight to Flyweight should make that strategy more effective, it puts her in a lose-lose situation here. Blanchfield’s both the superior kickboxer and the more lethal jiu-jitsu specialist, meaning Alpar’s only shot at victory is to grind her out against the cage or from guard. That doesn’t sound particularly plausible to me, so expect Blanchfield to find the finish around the midway point.
Prediction: Blanchfield via second round submission
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170 lbs.: Impa Kasanganay vs. Carlston Harris

Impa Kasanganay (9-1) went undefeated (2-0) on “Contender Series” before beating Maki Pitolo on an 18-day turnaround in his Octagon debut. While he came up short against Joaquin Buckley his next time out, he made a successful Welterweight debut in April 2021 by choking out Sasha Palatnikov.
“Tshilobo” gives up one inch of height and reach to “Mocambique.”
Guyana’s Carlston Harris (16-4) kicked off 2021 by choking out Saygid Izagakhmaev on Dana White’s “Lookin’ for a Fight,” earning himself a UFC contract in the process. Four months later, he dispatched Christian Aguilera with a bonus-winning anaconda choke to improve his current run to 8-1.
He has submitted five foes and knocked out another four.
Though Kasanganay has the potential to ultimately eclipse Harris, he’s not quite there yet. Beyond his edge in professional experience, Harris is the harder puncher, the more proven wrestler, and the more dangerous submission artist. Kasanganay can’t lean on his takedowns the way he did against Palatnikov and I’m not sure he hits hard enough to keep “Mocambique” from marching into the clinch and turning on his customary grind.
Again, Kasanganay is still young and extremely gifted, so I won’t be surprised if he’s already fixed the issues Harris looks poised to exploit.. I just have to lean towards the more proven product, especially since Kasanganay’s most recent gameplan plays right into Harris’ hands. In the end, Harris finds his neck early.
Prediction: Harris via first round submission
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135 lbs.: Gustavo Lopez vs. Alatengheili

Five months after an unsuccessful ultra-short-notice UFC debut against Merab Dvalishvili, Gustavo Lopez (12-6) clubbed-and-subbed Anthony Birchak for his first-ever Octagon victory. His efforts earned him a fight with another top prospect in Adrian Yanez, who stopped Lopez with a vicious counter right early in the third round.
He has ended all but one of his professional victories inside the distance, six of them by submission.
Alatengheili (14-8-1) started his UFC career strong with decisions over Danaa Batgerel and Ryan Benoit, the former of which earned him “Fight of the Night” honors. “The Mongolian Knight” couldn’t quite keep the momentum going against Casey Kenney, showing admirable heart but ultimately falling short in Oct. 2020.
He has scored seven stoppage wins as a professional.
While his one-sided loss to Kenney showed Alatengheili’s ceiling, I actually like his chances here. Strong wrestling and sharp right hands have vexed Lopez in his two UFC losses, and Alatengheili’s got both in spades alongside some impressive durability.
There is, however, the question of volume. Alatengheili is a remarkably low-output striker, so even if he can take Lopez’s best shot and stay standing, there’s a very real possibility that Lopez rides his superior output to victory. With enough power to keep Lopez honest and the takedown skills to offset the numbers differential with top control, though, I like Alatengheili to narrowly seize his third UFC victory.
Prediction: Alatengheili via split decision

205 lbs.: Mike Rodriguez vs. Tafon Nchukwi

Mike Rodriguez (11-6) made quick work of Jamelle Jones on “Contender Series,” stopping the future PFL competitor with a flying knee just over two minutes into the first round. Things haven’t gone quite as well for him in the UFC, where he’s gone 2-4 with one No Contest.
“Slow Mike” is the taller man by four inches and boasts a 5.5-inch reach advantage.
Having dispatched all three of his amateur foes and his first four professional opponents by knockout — including Al Matavao on “Contender Series” — Tafon Nchukwi (5-1) proved he could last the distance in a UFC debut win over Jamie Pickett.
All four of his professional knockouts came within two rounds.
It’s become clear that Rodriguez’s grappling just isn’t UFC-caliber. He’s stopped a measly 41 percent of the takedowns that have come his way, failing to stay on his feet against a standup specialist in John Allan and an undersized, shopworn Ed Herman. Anyone with the skills and willingness to shoot a double-leg is going to have a field day with him.
It’s a good thing, then, that Nchukwi is a striker. And a flawed one, at that. In fact, despite Rodriguez’s nickname, I actually think he’s the faster of the two by a decent margin. Nchukwi’s complete inability to deal with Park’s jab bodes ill against someone with this sort of reach advantage, and if he does try to bully his way inside to get those body shots going, Rodriguez’s knees and elbows are lethal. Nchukwi did show a willingness to attempt takedowns against Park, so he could just grind Rodriguez out, but I think he eats something unpleasant at range or the pocket before that happens.
Prediction: Rodriguez via first round technical knockout
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135 lbs.: Pannie Kianzad vs. Raquel Pennington

Despite fighting her way to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 Finale, Pannie Kianzad (15-5) struggled out of the UFC gate with two consecutive defeats. Subsequent efforts proved more successful, and she enters the cage this weekend having won four straight.
She gives up 1.5 inches of reach to “Rocky.”
A 5-1 run that saw her beat Jessica Andrade, Bethe Correia and Miesha Tate carried Raquel Pennington (11-8) to a title shot. Though she wound up dropping that bout and two of her next three, she got back in the win column in June 2020 with a decision over Marion Reneau.
This will be her first fight in nearly 15 months.
I’ll admit a bit of bias toward Kianzad. That’s because I get legitimately sad when fighters fail to live up to their potential, and watching her go from hyped prospect to afterthought to contender has been quite the ride. While I don’t think she’s championship material, I do think she’s got the goods to win this, largely thanks to her much-improved takedown defense and ability to get up off of her back. She’s the cleaner and more active boxer by a decent margin, meaning Pennington’s in trouble if she can’t get a proper grind going.
Pennington’s grit isn’t to be underestimated, and it wouldn’t be too outlandish to see her plant Kianzad against the cage and control her way to an ugly decision. Still, Kianzad’s looked solid enough in recent outings to earn my confidence. She controls the standup at range to claim a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Kianzad via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Nathan Maness vs. Tony Gravely

Just two fights after losing his TKO Bantamweight title to UFC veteran Taylor Lapilus, Nathan Maness (13-1) out-lasted grappling ace Johnny Munoz Jr. to claim his first Octagon victory. Then came Luke Sanders, whom Maness tapped midway through the second round with a “Performance of the Night”-winning rear-naked choke.
“Mayhem” will have five inches of height and three inches of reach on Tony Gravely (21-6).
Gravely — the CES Bantamweight champion — earned a UFC contract and extended his finishing streak to seven by stopping Ray Rodriguez on “Contender Series.” Though he suffered a submission loss to Brett Johns in his Octagon debut, he’s since gotten back on track with consecutive wins over Geraldo de Freitas and Anthony Birchak.
He has knocked out nine professional foes and submitted another three.
So long as Gravely’s gas tank holds up, he’s a problem for virtually any Bantamweight below the Top 10. Indeed, he’s a spectacular wrestler with dangerous submissions and, as we saw against Birchak, some deceptively solid stand up. If he’s got the motor to go 15 minutes, he’s too much for Maness, who struggled early with Munoz’s grappling before the late-notice debutante began to fade.
While Gravely’s narrow escape from de Freitas was cause for concern, the stylistic clash is favorable enough to assuage my worries. In the end, relentless chain-wrestling and high-level scrambles will carry him to a third consecutive UFC victory.
Prediction: Gravely via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Dakota Bush vs. Rongzhu

Less than three months after a 57-second head kick finish of Austin Clem, Dakota Bush (8-3) stepped up on short notice to meet Austin Hubbard at the APEX. Though Bush started well, Hubbard’s pressure ultimately resulted in the former’s first loss since 2019.
“Hairy” will enjoy one inch of height and two inches of reach on Rongzhu (17-4).
Rongzhu — who cut his teeth in China’s ** Lin Feng promotion — put together a 10-fight win streak and claimed its Lightweight title en route to UFC. His debut proved a disappointing one, turning in an uncharacteristically tepid performance in a losing effort against “Kazula” Vargas.
His 15 finishes include 11 by form of knockout.
What’s so frustrating about this match up is that if both men fought to the best of their abilities, Rongzhu would dominate. He’s the cleaner, more dangerous puncher and sports more than enough wrestling chops to keep Bush from dragging him to the mat. Thing is, he threw away a very winnable matchup against Vargas by simply refusing to attack; Vargas out-landed him more than two to one despite fading down the stretch.
If Rongzhu sleepwalks through this match up in similar fashion, Bush will out-work him. Maybe it’s an attempt to cover my ass after hyping the Chinese youngster up before his debut, but I think he’ll learn from this. I’m willing to chalk that debacle up to Octagon jitters, as he’s historically much more aggressive, and just a slight uptick in output should be sufficient to earn him a sprawl-and-brawl win.
Prediction: Rongzhu via unanimous decision

**magpie878** · 09-16-21, 12:46 PM

I'll have a little money on Smith ITD and Smith by submission.

**Sanity Check** · 09-16-21, 08:46 PM

LeMartin picks

Arroyo +170
Lipski -120

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 09-17-21, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by magpie878

I'll have a little money on Smith ITD and Smith by submission.

Any -10000 plays?

**magpie878** · 09-17-21, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Any -10000 plays?

Ha! DK had Barkley over 0.5 rushing yards last night and I didn't take it. Should have!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 09-17-21, 09:27 AM

Hey all, I'll be out of town camping for this one so won't have a chance to post any picks. Hopefully can get back to that next week. Best of luck!

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 09-17-21, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Hey all, I'll be out of town camping for this one so won't have a chance to post any picks. Hopefully can get back to that next week. Best of luck!

Have a nice peaceful time out in the wild!

**hankcream** · 09-17-21, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Hey all, I'll be out of town camping for this one so won't have a chance to post any picks. Hopefully can get back to that next week. Best of luck!

Have fun camping Buddy

. Make sure you are around on 10/30, I think the Funkmaster will have a few tricks up his sleeve for your boy Yan.

**hankcream** · 09-18-21, 09:25 AM

Let”s make some coin on this bitch:
3 units Tafon -118 why is Rodriguez still in the UFC
3.8 units Blancfield -380, hate the juice but it should be -600
2 units Tsaritsyn ITD +150
3.6 units Gravely -180
1 unit parlay Buckley & Cutelaba +138
1 unit Spann + 150

BOL everyone

**dawg58kahn** · 09-18-21, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by hankcream

Let”s make some coin on this bitch:
3 units Tafon -118 why is Rodriguez still in the UFC
3.8 units Blancfield -380, hate the juice but it should be -600
2 units Tsaritsyn ITD +150
3.6 units Gravely -180
1 unit parlay Buckley & Cutelaba +138
1 unit Spann + 150

BOL everyone

i put a bazooka on gravely mate.....

**dawg58kahn** · 09-18-21, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Hey all, I'll be out of town camping for this one so won't have a chance to post any picks. Hopefully can get back to that next week. Best of luck!

can u post them tomorrow

**Thrilla** · 09-18-21, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Hey all, I'll be out of town camping for this one so won't have a chance to post any picks. Hopefully can get back to that next week. Best of luck!

Guess we have to resort to Jibbby now? Fuk

**frankieunits2685** · 09-18-21, 03:28 PM

Lopez said he was going to be coming forward a lot more this fight. He has failed to do that so far.

**dawg58kahn** · 09-18-21, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by Thrilla

Guess we have to resort to Jibbby now? Fuk

lmao fade jibby he is so shit

**dawg58kahn** · 09-18-21, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I'm not that confident anymore betting on Smith but this seems like a fight he should win in the main.

fading your ass lmao

**hankcream** · 09-18-21, 04:55 PM

Go balls to the wall on Tsarukyan ITD he’s got a bug up his ass about Dan Hooker
4 more units +124

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 09-18-21, 05:58 PM

good evening gentlemen

**Kermit** · 09-18-21, 07:19 PM

Arman better get a finish here.

**dawg58kahn** · 09-18-21, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by dawg58kahn

i put a bazooka on gravely mate.....

oh no

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 09-18-21, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by Kermit

Arman better get a finish here.

he did

**Kermit** · 09-18-21, 07:23 PM

Nice. That is what a -910 favorite is supposed to do.

**Sanity Check** · 09-18-21, 07:39 PM

Trying SBG ireland Mandy Bohm fade for teh lols.

**hankcream** · 09-18-21, 07:42 PM

Good night so far, pound away on Cutelaba
3 more units -160

**Sanity Check** · 09-18-21, 07:51 PM

Bohm carrying her arms low.

Those knees and punches to the body Lipski is landing are hurting her.

**Kermit** · 09-18-21, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by hankcream

Good night so far, pound away on Cutelaba
3 more units -160

I got him ITD to finish off a 3 fight parlay.

**hankcream** · 09-18-21, 07:57 PM

Finally The Queen of Violence wins plus she’s pretty hot

**Sanity Check** · 09-18-21, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Trying SBG ireland Mandy Bohm fade for teh lols.

SBG ireland john kavanagh fade money maker.

**Kermit** · 09-18-21, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by hankcream

Finally The Queen of Violence wins plus she’s pretty hot

Yeah, considering most of these Brazilian girls in the UFC look like Gila monsters.

**hankcream** · 09-18-21, 08:04 PM

Clark doesn’t like to get punched in the face, Cutelaba loves it

**Kermit** · 09-18-21, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by hankcream

Clark doesn’t like to get punched in the face, Cutelaba loves it

I think that he dislocated his teeth.

Need this main event to finish quick to make something out of this night.