Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen 👊
Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Fight Island is in full swing, and this Saturday's card marks the midpoint between two big pay-per-views in Abu Dhabi. The winner of this week's main event will enter a small but tangled bantamweight title picture behind current champion Petr Yan.
Depending on whether Henry Cejudo stays retired or Aljamain Sterling gets a near-term shot, either Marlon Moraes or Cory Sandhagen will have something to say about who's next if they earn a post-fight victory speech.
Prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday.
Main event: Marlon Moraes (+120) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-140)
Tale Of The Tape
Moraes (No. 2 in ESPN's men's bantamweight rankings) opened as a +110 underdog. The early action was heavily on Sandhagen (No. 6) despite a recent loss, pushing him to a -175 favorite, with Moraes topping out at +155. Since last weekend, as the market has evolved further, the odds have reverted to near the original split.
We can see why the market is leaning toward Sandhagen. He's younger but has already faced some of the same opponents as Moraes. Sandhagen has a much rangier frame with a switch stance, which could present Moraes with physical challenges that are rare in this division.
While standing, Sandhagen has a big edge in accuracy. Combined with the long reach differential and a pace of activity that is nearly double that of Moraes', Sandhagen should have the advantage in round-to-round striking. However, should Moraes get close and find his target, he's the more powerful striker on a per strike basis.
On the ground, Sandhagen again has the edge in activity and control, while Moraes is likely the bigger finishing threat, with better grappling credentials.
Wherever this fight goes, it feels like Sandhagen by scores or Moraes by a finish. At the current odds, and in this division, that makes it nearly a coin flip.
E+ recommends: Pass at current odds. Should the odds get further apart, I'd consider a small bet on a Moraes upset. I'd consider Sandhagen only at even or better.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The co-main event could be a fun scrap between two featherweights outside the bubble, both in need of a rebound. Edson Barboza (-270) has long been a contender at lightweight and just recently moved to featherweight. That makes us pause when the numbers see value on Makwan Amirkhani (+220).
Barboza has faced more elite talent but primarily at a heavier weight class. Amirkhani has upset potential as a slick finisher, but if he's truly outclassed and outsized, Barboza should cruise to a striking finish. That means finishing potential on both sides.
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Amirkhani
The only other veteran pairing on this card is between heavyweights Ben Rothwell (-160) and Marcin Tybura (+135). As with the fights discussed above, this is a small underdog or pass situation. The ingredients for a Rothwell KO are clearly there, but Tybura has been able to use more dominant ground control, which could stifle (and exhaust) Rothwell's biggest weapon.
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Tybura
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Fight Island is in full swing, and this Saturday's card marks the midpoint between two big pay-per-views in Abu Dhabi. The winner of this week's main event will enter a small but tangled bantamweight title picture behind current champion Petr Yan.
Depending on whether Henry Cejudo stays retired or Aljamain Sterling gets a near-term shot, either Marlon Moraes or Cory Sandhagen will have something to say about who's next if they earn a post-fight victory speech.
Prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday.
Main event: Marlon Moraes (+120) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-140)
Tale Of The Tape
| Last fight weight class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Age | 32 | 28 |
| Height | 66 | 71 |
| Reach | 66.5 | 71 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Analyzed minutes | 65 | 48 |
| Stand-up striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 4:1 | 2:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| Head jab accuracy | 21% | 27% |
| Head power accuracy | 32% | 42% |
| Total stand-up strike ratio | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 70% | 70% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 99% | 100% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Takedown accuracy | 25% | 50% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 9 | 11 |
| Takedown defense | 67% | 27% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 46% | 75% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.40 | 0.17 |
We can see why the market is leaning toward Sandhagen. He's younger but has already faced some of the same opponents as Moraes. Sandhagen has a much rangier frame with a switch stance, which could present Moraes with physical challenges that are rare in this division.
While standing, Sandhagen has a big edge in accuracy. Combined with the long reach differential and a pace of activity that is nearly double that of Moraes', Sandhagen should have the advantage in round-to-round striking. However, should Moraes get close and find his target, he's the more powerful striker on a per strike basis.
On the ground, Sandhagen again has the edge in activity and control, while Moraes is likely the bigger finishing threat, with better grappling credentials.
Wherever this fight goes, it feels like Sandhagen by scores or Moraes by a finish. At the current odds, and in this division, that makes it nearly a coin flip.
E+ recommends: Pass at current odds. Should the odds get further apart, I'd consider a small bet on a Moraes upset. I'd consider Sandhagen only at even or better.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The co-main event could be a fun scrap between two featherweights outside the bubble, both in need of a rebound. Edson Barboza (-270) has long been a contender at lightweight and just recently moved to featherweight. That makes us pause when the numbers see value on Makwan Amirkhani (+220).
Barboza has faced more elite talent but primarily at a heavier weight class. Amirkhani has upset potential as a slick finisher, but if he's truly outclassed and outsized, Barboza should cruise to a striking finish. That means finishing potential on both sides.
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Amirkhani
The only other veteran pairing on this card is between heavyweights Ben Rothwell (-160) and Marcin Tybura (+135). As with the fights discussed above, this is a small underdog or pass situation. The ingredients for a Rothwell KO are clearly there, but Tybura has been able to use more dominant ground control, which could stifle (and exhaust) Rothwell's biggest weapon.
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Tybura