Best bets for UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 👊
Best bets for UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The third matchup between Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic feels bigger than your typical heavyweight championship fight. In fact, UFC president Dana White has said the winner will be the greatest heavyweight in UFC history.
Miocic (the current champ) and Cormier each have one TKO victory over the other, and will now face off again -- almost exactly one year after their most recent meeting. Cormier has said he intends to retire after this, and Miocic is also entering his twilight years.
The trilogy will be complete with Saturday's fight. And it should be a highly competitive one, at least according to the odds.
Prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Heavyweight championship: Miocic (-105) vs. Cormier (-115)
Tale Of The Tape
Having won the most recent meeting, Miocic opened as an ever-so-slight favorite over Cormier, but the odds have since flipped. It should stay close to a pick 'em, and either man could close as the favorite. We're unlikely to see much steady line movement one way or the other.
What makes this matchup so close is the pairing of capable hands with a strong wrestling base, which each man possesses. Both have damaged the other while on their feet, but so far their wrestling skills have mostly canceled each other out. Neither landed more than one takedown in either of their prior fights. That could change, however, with at least Cormier hinting he may employ a more wrestling-focused attack. But that's not yet a proven strategy against Miocic, who has spent 90% of his ground time to date in control.
One year ago, we leaned toward Miocic for the upset stoppage and he came through. But a highly motivated Cormier, wanting to leave MMA on a high note, means we should see him at his most focused. And when at his best, Cormier has the edge in a matchup that could turn into the type of grinder he welcomes.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Cormier, pending weigh-ins.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
John Dodson used to be a guy always on the cusp of a title, a ball of energy who just needed an extra bit of luck or focus to be elite. But he's now pushing 36 years old, and ranked outside the top 10. And here comes Merab Dvalishvili, who is still under 30 and has recently pushed his way into the rankings, looking for a signature win.
Dodson spends only 4% of his total octagon time on the ground, as he's one of the feistiest counter-wrestlers in the division. He'll definitely have the better hands in this matchup, but Dvalishvili displays a relentless pressure game that might benefit from the small cage. He'll look to wrestle early and often (as he always does), and even when he can't get the fight to the ground, he'll weigh heavily in the clinch along the fence to tire Dodson out.
E+ recommends: Money-line play on Dvalishvili (-220).
Livinha Souza is a seasoned Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, with a variety of submission wins in her career. She's facing a wrestler and grinder in Ashley Yoder, whose only finishes have come by way of submission much earlier in her career against lesser grapplers. Yoder won't be able to finish Souza that way, but Souza will be a constant threat against Yoder's top game if any opportunity opens up.
E+ recommends: Lean, but potential pass on Souza (-155) assuming she remains a clear favorite.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The third matchup between Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic feels bigger than your typical heavyweight championship fight. In fact, UFC president Dana White has said the winner will be the greatest heavyweight in UFC history.
Miocic (the current champ) and Cormier each have one TKO victory over the other, and will now face off again -- almost exactly one year after their most recent meeting. Cormier has said he intends to retire after this, and Miocic is also entering his twilight years.
The trilogy will be complete with Saturday's fight. And it should be a highly competitive one, at least according to the odds.
Prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Heavyweight championship: Miocic (-105) vs. Cormier (-115)
Tale Of The Tape
| Last fight weight class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Age | 41 | 38 |
| Height | 71 | 76 |
| Reach | 71 | 80 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orrhodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 236 | 170 |
| Standup striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 4:4 | 6:3 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| Head jab accuracy | 41% | 38% |
| Head power accuracy | 36% | 41% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 71% | 64% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 99% | 98% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| Takedown accuracy | 48% | 38% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 33 | 15 |
| Takedown defense | 76% | 73% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 97% | 90% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.21 | 0.00 |
What makes this matchup so close is the pairing of capable hands with a strong wrestling base, which each man possesses. Both have damaged the other while on their feet, but so far their wrestling skills have mostly canceled each other out. Neither landed more than one takedown in either of their prior fights. That could change, however, with at least Cormier hinting he may employ a more wrestling-focused attack. But that's not yet a proven strategy against Miocic, who has spent 90% of his ground time to date in control.
One year ago, we leaned toward Miocic for the upset stoppage and he came through. But a highly motivated Cormier, wanting to leave MMA on a high note, means we should see him at his most focused. And when at his best, Cormier has the edge in a matchup that could turn into the type of grinder he welcomes.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Cormier, pending weigh-ins.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
John Dodson used to be a guy always on the cusp of a title, a ball of energy who just needed an extra bit of luck or focus to be elite. But he's now pushing 36 years old, and ranked outside the top 10. And here comes Merab Dvalishvili, who is still under 30 and has recently pushed his way into the rankings, looking for a signature win.
Dodson spends only 4% of his total octagon time on the ground, as he's one of the feistiest counter-wrestlers in the division. He'll definitely have the better hands in this matchup, but Dvalishvili displays a relentless pressure game that might benefit from the small cage. He'll look to wrestle early and often (as he always does), and even when he can't get the fight to the ground, he'll weigh heavily in the clinch along the fence to tire Dodson out.
E+ recommends: Money-line play on Dvalishvili (-220).
Livinha Souza is a seasoned Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, with a variety of submission wins in her career. She's facing a wrestler and grinder in Ashley Yoder, whose only finishes have come by way of submission much earlier in her career against lesser grapplers. Yoder won't be able to finish Souza that way, but Souza will be a constant threat against Yoder's top game if any opportunity opens up.
E+ recommends: Lean, but potential pass on Souza (-155) assuming she remains a clear favorite.