EDIT: college basketball running late, catch prelims on Fox Sports App and/or UFC.TV
Let's take a semi-hedge+reverse shot at a payoff on first bout-- the Georgees fight.
LOSS, loser a late fill-in, winner moving up in weight only for this fight. 1. Under 2½ Rounds -112(DSI) / Georgees +450 / Georgees Win Inside Distance +1050 %67/23/11 respectively OR divide your stake into 3 piles, 2 on Under, remaining pile subdivide into 3 piles-- 2 go on Geo, last on Geo ID
IF we're wrong and he gets outclassed like the odds suggest, we'll still clear @27% as long as Ismugalov blasts him out. We will get middled out on Ismugalov Decision Win...but for both it's their initial UFC fight, so both should be trying to impress.
May use second and third fights:
LOSS( Cutting this bet amount in half 2. Hirota +320 & Fight Does NOT Go To Decision +215 Risky bet-- both fighters are not good enough to be in UFC, and to boot have lousy finishing percentages. BUT...the saving grace could be both need to show something or get dropped from UFC.
LOSS Cutting betting amount in half yet again, to ¼ 2-5 Ratio respectively 3. Garcia +330(BOL) & Fight Won't Start Round 3 -121 Giving Garcia another chance.
LOSS not much to do when heavy faves win only by decision...Back up in amount to ½ Unit. 4. Nakamura fightUNDER 2½ +221. Touahri has a chance here, but +160 not great odds. LET'S AUDIBLE-- FIGHT DOES NOT GO TO DECISION +175
LOSS trend continues still...Back down to ¼ amount...these are just shots to get back some of the losses....5. Reis-Nguyen Won't start Round 2 +350 & Won't Start Round 3 +170 1-2 Ratio, or 30-70 respectively
Loss, running total -3½ Units 6. 1 Unit-- Mokhtarian +480 & Fight Starts Round 2 -137 Ratio 1-3 or 23-77
WIN 1½ Units 7. 1 Unit -- Matthews-Martin Fight Does Not Go To Decision +150(WH)
LOSS 8. 1 Unit Hunt-Willis No Decision -185
WIN both main bet & Hedge +1.55 units (Running Total -1.45 Units) 9. 1 Unit Shogun +435 & Fight Starts Round 2 -134 2-7 ratio very possible Rua doesn't even make it out of 1st round, but nothing else available....
A possibility to get ahead for the night was to Dutch Cygano Inside Distance & Tuivasa Inside Distance for @28% Net. This would've required risking Friday's win / possibly and possibly middling out, ergo big loss for both days. Same reason for not betting more each of the last three fights.
more to follow...
EPILOGUE: TALE OF TWO POLAR-OPPOSITE NIGHTS
Friday(same system, plays not posted here) yielded almost a 6 Unit Win(won first two bets and never looked back--enough underdogs won and/or enough fights didn't go to decision), Saturday an almost 1½ Loss due to an improbably long streak of heavy fave decision-only wins(Our 7 underdogs went 1-6 with 5 decision losses. In order to be in the black all we needed was for one more of them to either win or get stopped early)
Our 2-7 record came within a hair of being anywhere between 1-8 to 7-2. Bets 1 thru 4 we almost got early win(for scalp win bet + hedge) AND almost got stopped early(for at least hedge throwing small net) #6 was wrongly stopped early. And our win on the co-main event was almost a double loss.
In fact, both co-main events will end up reversed 9 times out of 10.
Let's take a semi-hedge+reverse shot at a payoff on first bout-- the Georgees fight.
LOSS, loser a late fill-in, winner moving up in weight only for this fight. 1. Under 2½ Rounds -112(DSI) / Georgees +450 / Georgees Win Inside Distance +1050 %67/23/11 respectively OR divide your stake into 3 piles, 2 on Under, remaining pile subdivide into 3 piles-- 2 go on Geo, last on Geo ID
IF we're wrong and he gets outclassed like the odds suggest, we'll still clear @27% as long as Ismugalov blasts him out. We will get middled out on Ismugalov Decision Win...but for both it's their initial UFC fight, so both should be trying to impress.
May use second and third fights:
LOSS( Cutting this bet amount in half 2. Hirota +320 & Fight Does NOT Go To Decision +215 Risky bet-- both fighters are not good enough to be in UFC, and to boot have lousy finishing percentages. BUT...the saving grace could be both need to show something or get dropped from UFC.
LOSS Cutting betting amount in half yet again, to ¼ 2-5 Ratio respectively 3. Garcia +330(BOL) & Fight Won't Start Round 3 -121 Giving Garcia another chance.
LOSS not much to do when heavy faves win only by decision...Back up in amount to ½ Unit. 4. Nakamura fight
LOSS trend continues still...Back down to ¼ amount...these are just shots to get back some of the losses....5. Reis-Nguyen Won't start Round 2 +350 & Won't Start Round 3 +170 1-2 Ratio, or 30-70 respectively
Loss, running total -3½ Units 6. 1 Unit-- Mokhtarian +480 & Fight Starts Round 2 -137 Ratio 1-3 or 23-77
WIN 1½ Units 7. 1 Unit -- Matthews-Martin Fight Does Not Go To Decision +150(WH)
LOSS 8. 1 Unit Hunt-Willis No Decision -185
WIN both main bet & Hedge +1.55 units (Running Total -1.45 Units) 9. 1 Unit Shogun +435 & Fight Starts Round 2 -134 2-7 ratio very possible Rua doesn't even make it out of 1st round, but nothing else available....
A possibility to get ahead for the night was to Dutch Cygano Inside Distance & Tuivasa Inside Distance for @28% Net. This would've required risking Friday's win / possibly and possibly middling out, ergo big loss for both days. Same reason for not betting more each of the last three fights.
EPILOGUE: TALE OF TWO POLAR-OPPOSITE NIGHTS
Friday(same system, plays not posted here) yielded almost a 6 Unit Win(won first two bets and never looked back--enough underdogs won and/or enough fights didn't go to decision), Saturday an almost 1½ Loss due to an improbably long streak of heavy fave decision-only wins(Our 7 underdogs went 1-6 with 5 decision losses. In order to be in the black all we needed was for one more of them to either win or get stopped early)
Our 2-7 record came within a hair of being anywhere between 1-8 to 7-2. Bets 1 thru 4 we almost got early win(for scalp win bet + hedge) AND almost got stopped early(for at least hedge throwing small net) #6 was wrongly stopped early. And our win on the co-main event was almost a double loss.
In fact, both co-main events will end up reversed 9 times out of 10.