Cage Warriors 99 bettable fights startinng in minutes

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  • acquavallo
    SBR Sharp
    • 03-16-18
    • 350

    #1
    Cage Warriors 99 bettable fights startinng in minutes
    Catch on UFC Fight Pass

    Not much. Lousy records, off long layoffs, hard to find stream & results, final fight order doesn't seem finalized or at least clearly reported.

    The only longshot with a chance looks like Rajweski. Speaking of, underdog odds are not sufficiently high enough--although high enough to preclude betting faves. 5 fights offer betting, would need 2 to hit to Net profit. Let's start small--¼ Units with all underdogs and use Rajewski as main bet.


    Cage Warriors 99: Greyson vs. O'Driscoll November 17th








    Last edited by acquavallo; 11-17-18, 04:03 PM.
  • acquavallo
    SBR Sharp
    • 03-16-18
    • 350

    #2
    First fight clicks-- Richardson with the best odds too: +360 To be candid, Richardson looked like a sacrificial lamb entering the ring. And, don't remain sure he would win again in a rematch...can see him getting stopped.
    Gonna divide winnings into 5 piles, minus original stake. This way profit is guaranteed.
    One fifth onto next underdog.
    From here on out we will up bets IF wins continue.

    Jones +232 upcoming...another win. This one looked like the eventual winner prefight. Although, almost got choked out.

    Rajewski +240 next. We're up about 1½ Units. Let's ride ½ Unit here. First Loss. Looked on the way to possible stoppage win early, but....

    OK. Next fight gets ¼ Unit, Kelly +265. IF we lose, we will skip the last fight...as its odds are the worst of the night at only +179 Want to avoid the large(st) bets on the lowest odds.
    When sorting the bankroll columns by bet size, you want to see the largest bets be W's. This is ONLY accomplished by LOWERING bet size after a win:
    A. you NEVER know if a W or L is following, EVEN IF you can guarantee winning more than half your bets.
    B. you want to avoid On Tilt-you don't want to be constantly having dig out of a early hole by double or nothing bets at the end, quadruple or nothing the next morning, octuple or nothing after that, then glory hole at the local rest stop or xxx theater to rebuild bankroll.
    LOSS. And it looked like so entering the ring prefight.
    OK. Done here, skipping main event, booking that 3/4 Unit NET. UFC next....ALTHOUGH don't see any juicy odds to get crazy about.
    Last edited by acquavallo; 11-17-18, 05:36 PM. Reason: in progress
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    • acquavallo
      SBR Sharp
      • 03-16-18
      • 350

      #3
      EPILOGUE
      PS last fight (unbet) underdog, Radcliffe, lost.

      This is about all one can do with fights. Our choice lost AND we had a losing prognosticating record(well, we tied because we skipped the last fight)-- YET we came out positive. You can't bet such steep faves-- 4 wins out of 5 still puts you in the red. And you can't really handicap. You can try, until the cows come home, BUT all it takes is some trouble at home, a bad training camp, bad weight cut, fighting with an unhealed injury, wrong fighting style, a fix, recreational substance abuse, performance-enhancing substance, fight judge incorrect scoring, referee mistake, accidental injury during fight, etc.

      We could've also just Round-Robined the 5 fights-- 10 combos, win 1 for a plus 6 combo NET(two high prices clicked, otherwise win could've been a loss IF two lowest prices clicked). But to be honest, we were just aiming to keep dollar losses to a minimum-- on paper the underdogs looked real underwhelming, odds were NOT that great...and our two wins could easily have been losses.
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