MMA Math (no not that kind)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 09-11-18, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Broxbomber

Help me understand the math for this type of scenario comparing props and money lines.

Zabit vs Davis UFC 228 (odds off of memory from Bet365):

1. Zabit Moneyline @ -1400.
2. Zabit ITD @ -163
3. Zabit by Decision @ +163

For Zabit moneyline you bet $1,400 and win $100.

Why not bet Zabit ITD $700 wins $430 and Zabit by Decision $700 wins $1,137. You are still risking $1400 but have a chance to win $430 at a minimum with an upside of $1137 as opposed to only winning $100 on moneyline.

What is the math to figure out how much to bet on ITD and By Decision in comparison to the Moneyline?

Hope this makes sense. I see this sort of thing in boxing all the time as well and the numbers don’t add up to bet on moneyline.

Because you are not actually winning $430 when Zabit ITD hits. If you bet $700 each on the above bets with the above odds you lose $270 when Zabit ITD hits since you are losing your $700 stake on Zabit Decision. Similarly, when you hit Zabit Decision, you profit $437 from your initial $1,137 profit minus your $700 stake on Zabit ITD. Hope this makes sense.

**Wohlford** · 09-11-18, 06:54 PM

Those numbers add up quite well. You can see the odds history here so you don't have to rely on memory. https://www.bestfightodds.com/events...y-vs-till-1530

If you take the 5Dimes closing odds and de-juice them, they imply the following probabilities of each outcome:

Zabit Wins (-1375/+900) = ~90.5%
Zabit ITD (-145/+115) = ~56%
Zabit Dec (+165/-205) = ~35.5%

56% + 35.5% = 91.5% ≈ 90.5%

This is what you would expect.

Beyond that, your math is way off. There is no scenario where you have an upside of $1,137 since if Zabit wins by decision he does not win ITD, so you'd lose the ITD bet, so your upside is only $437. Similarly, if Zabit did win ITD, you'd lose the decision bet, so you would not be up $430; you'd be down -$270. Of course, if Davis won, you'd still be down $1,400 either way.

**Broxbomber** · 09-11-18, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Because you are not actually winning $430 when Zabit ITD hits. If you bet $700 each on the above bets with the above odds you lose $270 when Zabit ITD hits since you are losing your $700 stake on Zabit Decision. Similarly, when you hit Zabit Decision, you profit $437 from your initial $1,137 profit minus your $700 stake on Zabit ITD. Hope this makes sense.

Ok I get what you are saying. I wasn’t putting in the loss of the other side of the bet into the equation.

It just feels like there is a math angle that should show value vs the moneyline.

**Broxbomber** · 09-11-18, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by Wohlford

Those numbers add up quite well. You can see the odds history here so you don't have to rely on memory. https://www.bestfightodds.com/events...y-vs-till-1530

If you take the 5Dimes closing odds and de-juice them, they imply the following probabilities of each outcome:

Zabit Wins (-1375/+900) = ~90.5%
Zabit ITD (-145/+115) = ~56%
Zabit Dec (+165/-205) = ~35.5%

56% + 35.5% = 91.5% ≈ 90.5%

This is what you would expect.

Beyond that, your math is way off. There is no scenario where you have an upside of $1,137 since if Zabit wins by decision he does not win ITD, so you'd lose the ITD bet, so your upside is only $437. Similarly, if Zabit did win ITD, you'd lose the decision bet, so you would not be up $430; you'd be down -$270. Of course, if Davis won, you'd still be down $1,400 either way.

This example is clear to me thanks. Usually I am pretty good with math.