Why is Gunnar Nelson a big favorite vs. Alan Jouban?

[KushMoney]

Nelson isn't that good... wtf.

Jouban is pretty good and has a much higher fight IQ than Nelson, IMO.


What am I missing?


If Nelson wins it's by close decision.


-300 NEGATIVE EV AS FUKK.

[Sanity Check]

Nelson isn't that good... wtf.
What am I missing?

Watch Jouban's fight with Belal Muhammad.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I love Jouban but I think this a bad matchup for him. Nelson has good TDs and a very stifling ground game if he can get you down. He passes quickly to Full Mount and drops short elbows. He is also a great submission finisher. If Jouban can keep it on the feet, he can easily win a decision on volume. He could also knock Gunnar out since his striking defense is below average. There might be some value on a straight bet on Jouban ML (+270) but I favor Gunnar to get the win the majority of the time.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Jouban also looked much better at weigh-ins

[KushMoney]

Yeah Jouban looked solid at weigh ins.

Gunnar, coming off an injury. Dull. Bland. Grappler. Decent striking.

Jouban, upbeat good guy. More active fighter. Sharp. Exciting style.


I'm in Vegas. At Southpoint. Hitting money line parlays like crazy on NCAAB games. My bracket is near perfect. Up $2000 making hundred dollar bets. Feeling myself.... talk me out of Jouban bet.


Ill bet 500 on it. Ill do it. If I lose, martingale back my losses on -900 triple G. Big boy bet

I also like Wisconsin +6 tomorrow if anyone is betting ncaab

[firekillex]

youre extremely wrong on gunnar nelsons fight IQ and skill level it seems ....

[KushMoney]

Oh well.

I got a lot of drink tickets and a bet slip to take $1850.

I'm stoned.

Imma play poker 1/2 for a while.

Good luck to anyone who bets on this event.

[Bad Tattoo]

i had the same initial reaction...I think Gunnar could be overvalued ... I have lost interest in UFC since Conor has left...I do remember Nelson's striking looking like trash against Rick Story..but will Jouban get dominated on the ground?? Don't know.. Jouban way more active though. I'd do more research but I have other plays to look at - good luck brah

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Now you know...