akasars' UFC Picks

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-27-16, 12:58 AM

Seems you like dogs or "pick 'ems". Care to explain your reasoning for your picks?

**akasars** · 07-27-16, 05:56 PM

Ellenberger vs. Brown

On paper this might seem like a lock for Brown, and while I still expect Brown to pull out the win, I think the line is a bit lopsided here. Brown's had some trouble with wrestlers in the past, and if Ellenberger can get this fight to the ground he has a decent chance of getting a sub or grinding out a couple of rounds to a decision victory. If Ellenberger gets into a swinging exchange with Brown, that could be trouble.

Rivera vs. Perez

Rivera is a guy who's shown in his recent fights, although he's lost a couple now, that he can swing with the best of em. He had some very back and forth exchanges with both Lineker and Pickett. The key to this fight is whether or not Perez can take Rivera down. I expect Rivera to cut angles effectively and keep this one on the feet, where he'll drop a KO on Perez.

Benoit vs. Serrano

Serrano was a middling guy on TUF Latin America, don't think there's anything special about him. Benoit has solid stand-up game and is still on the rise as he's 10 years younger than Serrano. Remember Benoit knocked out Sergio Pettis last year, I'm expecting another KO here.

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-27-16, 09:58 PM

Thanks for the explanation. Overall, I have a hard time seeing the logic to your bets. I think if you want to be the best, you need deeper analysis. If you expect Brown to win, why bet on Ellenberger? That's just gambling. I feel like Benoit vs Serrano is a tossup, Serrano is an olympic wrestler and he hits hard. He knocked out Bently Syler cold. Other bettors reallize that Benoit KOed Pettis, that should show up in teh betting line. Rivera looked stiff in his fight against Pickett, although he does have more KO power than Perez.

I'm not saying your bets are wrong, could easily workout, but i don't see the edge.

**Vaughany** · 07-28-16, 06:08 AM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Thanks for the explanation. Overall, I have a hard time seeing the logic to your bets. I think if you want to be the best, you need deeper analysis. If you expect Brown to win, why bet on Ellenberger? That's just gambling. I feel like Benoit vs Serrano is a tossup, Serrano is an olympic wrestler and he hits hard. He knocked out Bently Syler cold. Other bettors reallize that Benoit KOed Pettis, that should show up in teh betting line. Rivera looked stiff in his fight against Pickett, although he does have more KO power than Perez.

I'm not saying your bets are wrong, could easily workout, but i don't see the edge.

depends how much he expects Brown to win. If he thinks Brown wins but only wins 65% of the time (for example) then playing Ellenberger at +255 is logical

**bjpenn85** · 07-28-16, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

depends how much he expects Brown to win. If he thinks Brown wins but only wins 65% of the time (for example) then playing Ellenberger at +255 is logical

Do you have any bets locked in for this weekend V?

**GoBlue77** · 07-28-16, 10:07 PM

I'm the goat here.

good luck with your dart chucks there

**Ty$** · 07-28-16, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by GoBlue77

I'm the goat here.

good luck with your dart chucks there

What's your favorite plays on this card ?

**akasars** · 07-31-16, 03:55 AM

Nice results today, will post next week's picks shortly.

Overall: 2-1, +2.66 units

**akasars** · 07-31-16, 03:56 AM

UFC FN 92:

Caceres @ 3.50
Camozzi @ 2.69

**dhristov211** · 07-31-16, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by akasars

UFC FN 92:

Caceres @ 3.50
Camozzi @ 2.69

I tail

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-31-16, 10:06 AM

Good pick on Ellenberger. Although he didn't win the way you predicted.

**akasars** · 07-31-16, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Good pick on Ellenberger. Although he didn't win the way you predicted.

Haha, you're right about that! I think that's the first time Brown's been finished by strikes... superb performance from Ellenberger last night. That being said, I still stand by my rational for betting on Ellenberger even though I thought Brown was the favourite, the odds seemed lopsided (V touched on this point earlier). I personally find it much easier to gain an edge when capping just the ML in MMA, and that's reason I don't usually place bets on method of victory as anything can happen.

Originally posted by dhristov211

I tail

Good luck buddy! Thanks for the points.

**akasars** · 08-06-16, 10:09 PM

Adding for tonight: Ponzinibbio @ 1.934

Line has moved heavily against this guy, I think there's value here

**akasars** · 08-08-16, 01:02 AM

Overall: 3-3, +1.59 units

Early plays for UFC 202:

McGregor @ 1.75
Texeira @ 2.80
Story @ 2.40

**akasars** · 08-12-16, 09:59 AM

lots of opportunities on this card, adding the following:

Magny @ 1.81
Mizugaki @ 5.00
Avila @ 2.02

**bjpenn85** · 08-12-16, 10:23 AM

1 unit per bet?

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-12-16, 12:11 PM

Akasars, I like your picks, you seem to think outside the box. Like your bet on Ellenberger was really good. I'd like to see your thoughts behind the picks. In particular, Mizugaki who's a gigantic +400 underdog.

**akasars** · 08-13-16, 03:31 AM

Yep all bets are 1 unit.

Alright, here's a short recap of why I chose each pick:

McGregor: the reason he lost his first fight was not because of poor cardio, but because he was mentally defeated when Diaz would not go down to his first round punches. You gotta think if you are Conor, and you've made your living so far on early round KOs, you are going to be surprised when your opponent does not get as badly hurt. This time around, he'll be more prepared for what Diaz has to offer. Diaz may withstand his initial barrage, but he'll keep pressing forward and maybe land a 2nd/3rd rd KO.

Texeira: I still think Rumble is kind of a one-trick pony. Glover has a nice clinch and better ground game than Rumble, so as long as he avoids the huge punches and is able to get a body on him, he should take the W.

Story: Yeah Cerrone looked good against Cote in his welterweight debut, but Rick Story is on a different level from Cote. Cerrone will get worked hard.

Magny: Same reason as above, he is just a whole level above Lorenz Larkin right now.

Mizugaki: here's an interesting one. We've all seen recently how devastating Cody's hands can be. He's lightning fast, and hits with very good power for his division. However, I think people are seriously underestimating Mizugaki right now. I calculated Cody to have ~65% win chance in this fight, so Mizugaki +400 is a great deal opportunity

Avila: Artem Lobov sucks

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-13-16, 08:36 AM

Thanks. Not a deep analysis, but we'll see if your intuition is right!

Originally posted by akasars

Yep all bets are 1 unit.

Alright, here's a short recap of why I chose each pick:

McGregor: the reason he lost his first fight was not because of poor cardio, but because he was mentally defeated when Diaz would not go down to his first round punches. You gotta think if you are Conor, and you've made your living so far on early round KOs, you are going to be surprised when your opponent does not get as badly hurt. This time around, he'll be more prepared for what Diaz has to offer. Diaz may withstand his initial barrage, but he'll keep pressing forward and maybe land a 2nd/3rd rd KO.

Texeira: I still think Rumble is kind of a one-trick pony. Glover has a nice clinch and better ground game than Rumble, so as long as he avoids the huge punches and is able to get a body on him, he should take the W.

Story: Yeah Cerrone looked good against Cote in his welterweight debut, but Rick Story is on a different level from Cote. Cerrone will get worked hard.

Magny: Same reason as above, he is just a whole level above Lorenz Larkin right now.

Mizugaki: here's an interesting one. We've all seen recently how devastating Cody's hands can be. He's lightning fast, and hits with very good power for his division. However, I think people are seriously underestimating Mizugaki right now. I calculated Cody to have ~65% win chance in this fight, so Mizugaki +400 is a great deal opportunity

Avila: Artem Lobov sucks

**akasars** · 08-21-16, 12:26 AM

lol what a shyt night for my picks. 1-5 for a total of -4.25u

Overall: 4-8, -2.66 units

Fade me if you want but I'll be back on track in no time