Bjpenn85 knows his UFC 198 (Last thread had an error)

**JIBBBY** · 05-11-16, 10:44 AM

^^ BJ keep up the winning and postings for a few months and you can grab an SBR fan base and go tout just like Josh and make millions...

...

I like your bets except for your Shogun and Little Nog long shots... Hey but you bet those small.. One might land since this is in Brazil as those 2 fighters might just fight out of their minds...

**bjpenn85** · 05-11-16, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^ BJ keep up the winning and postings for a few months and you can grab an SBR fan base and go tout just like Josh and make millions...

...

I like your bets except for your Shogun and Little Nog long shots... Hey but you bet those small.. One might land since this is in Brazil as those 2 fighters might just fight out of their minds...

I have Cummins in a parlay as you can see. The Corey Anderson is just pure risk. I rather have me some shogun which can either sub, tko or win a faulty dec in Brazil @+200. Can Anderson justify a -200 position with his horrible defence? Absolutely not, huge liability. The variety or inconsistency in a -200 bet, the range of value you get is pretty wide. You can get Trinaldo @-200 with no risk of medeiros finishing him or you can get Corey Anderson who can loose on all methods and the likelyhood at least from experience is high for an upset here.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-11-16, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I have Cummins in a parlay as you can see. The Corey Anderson is just pure risk. I rather have me some shogun which can either sub, tko or win a faulty dec in Brazil @+200. Can Anderson justify a -200 position with his horrible defence? Absolutely not, huge liability. The variety or inconsistency in a -200 bet, the range of value you get is pretty wide. You can get Trinaldo @-200 with no risk of medeiros finishing him or you can get Corey Anderson who can loose on all methods and the likelyhood at least from experience is high for an upset here.

Didn't you have a bet on Anderson originally or was that someone else?

**bjpenn85** · 05-11-16, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Didn't you have a bet on Anderson originally or was that someone else?

Thats correct, i first had 1,3 units on corey, i made an adjustment. So no its 0.3 units on shogun to win 0,6 units.

Corey may win, but theres to many issues with the pick. He doest finish fights, he usually doesnt KO people, so unless he tkos shogun on the ground, which is difficult as shoguns guard is quite good, how does the fight go? Fight goes to decision likely, and the brazilian judges are so biased that shogun only needs to win one round and not look horrible in the 2.round and then he probably can win a home cooked decision. At -200 Corey Anderson is far away from a solid bet. Its bet haunted by risk and question marks, why bother? Why bother when you got a lot of other fighters with the same price tag without those question marks.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-11-16, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Thats correct, i first had 1,3 units on corey, i made an adjustment. So no its 0.3 units on shogun to win 0,6 units.

Corey may win, but theres to many issues with the pick. He doest finish fights, he usually doesnt KO people, so unless he tkos shogun on the ground, which is difficult as shoguns guard is quite good, how does the fight go? Fight goes to decision likely, and the brazilian judges are so biased that shogun only needs to win one round and not look horrible in the 2.round and then he probably can win a home cooked decision. At -200 Corey Anderson is far away from a solid bet. Its bet haunted by risk and question marks, why bother? Why bother when you got a lot of other fighters with the same price tag without those question marks.

I agree with that. Trinaldo and Cummins are both way safer for the same price. Did you cancel the Anderson bet somehow or just bet Shogun so that you had a net of .3 units on him?

**bjpenn85** · 05-11-16, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I agree with that. Trinaldo and Cummins are both way safer for the same price. Did you cancel the Anderson bet somehow or just bet Shogun so that you had a net of .3 units on him?

A bookie will never cancel a bet after your request. I simply bet shogun so it overlapped for 0,3 units., so yes.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-11-16, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

A bookie will never cancel a bet after your request. I simply bet shogun so it overlapped for 0,3 units., so yes.

That's what I figured.

**bjpenn85** · 05-11-16, 02:58 PM

Adding:

3,6 units on Trinaldo (1.45), Cyborg Justino TKO or decision (1.22) @ 1.77 - 2,8 units

**Rich Benjamins** · 05-14-16, 12:05 PM

The change of the line to -160 on Anderson is a gift, I put more on him. Anything can happen in a fight, but Anderson is quick and likley wont' get hit with a lucky punch by Shogun. He'll be able to take Shogun down at will and GnP. Shogun has become a can, he's on his way out while guys like Anderson are on their way up. He's only 26, and improving every fight.

**bjpenn85** · 05-14-16, 10:18 PM

Got lucky there, but the line was originally to wide. Fight was closer than the odds suggested.

**bjpenn85** · 05-14-16, 11:11 PM

Event result: +1,3 units
Total result from 7.5.2016: +12.4 units aka +1240 dollars

Dreadful night. My parlay buster Alves was quite suprising. Given how difficult Barbarena struggled with Sage Northcut i thought the level between Norhtcut and Alves was a lot larger than it actually was. For some reason all judges was severely biased through most of the event except in the only fight i really needed them to be.Thats MMA betting in a nutshell.

**Rich Benjamins** · 05-14-16, 11:36 PM

Corey got robbed, no way he lost the 2nd round. Oh well. I ended the night with a small loss. I should've just bet on Cyborg and Jacare, the easy ones lol.

**JIBBBY** · 05-16-16, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Event result: +1,3 units
Total result from 7.5.2016: +12.4 units aka +1240 dollars

Dreadful night. My parlay buster Alves was quite suprising. Given how difficult Barbarena struggled with Sage Northcut i thought the level between Norhtcut and Alves was a lot larger than it actually was. For some reason all judges was severely biased through most of the event except in the only fight i really needed them to be.Thats MMA betting in a nutshell.

Just checking this thread now.. You didn't lose and that's good.. I break even in a lot of the events like this no biggie.. Stay in the green bud..

I always thought you were a good capper BJ..

**bjpenn85** · 05-16-16, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Just checking this thread now.. You didn't lose and that's good.. I break even in a lot of the events like this no biggie.. Stay in the green bud..

I always thought you were a good capper BJ..

Spanks! I was one judge away from 1500 dollars, pretty unforgiven sport sometimes.

**JIBBBY** · 05-17-16, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Spanks! I was one judge away from 1500 dollars, pretty unforgiven sport sometimes.

It often comes down to one big fight in the end for me as well when killing it or breaking even with an event..

I'm crazy though as I bet on every fight with every event.. I simply want to be entertained when watching more then anything else. Horrible rule of gambling and I know, I don't recommend anyone trying what I do....

I do go the extra mile though and bust my ass capping all the fights so I have a fighting chance to win in the end... I bet heavier on the fights I like and feel good about and bet less or look for massive prop value on the ones I don't.. I'll also try to hedge when I see a clear pathways to victory for each fighter..

Odds have to work out though on all bets...

**Rich Benjamins** · 05-17-16, 06:08 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

It often comes down to one big fight in the end for me as well when killing it or breaking even with an event..

I'm crazy though as I bet on every fight with every event.. I simply want to be entertained when watching more then anything else. Horrible rule of gambling and I know, I don't recommend anyone trying what I do....

I do go the extra mile though and bust my ass capping all the fights so I have a fighting chance to win in the end... I bet heavier on the fights I like and feel good about and bet less or look for massive prop value on the ones I don't.. I'll also try to hedge when I see a clear pathways to victory for each fighter..

Odds have to work out though on all bets...

It's good to diversify. But I don't agree with betting on every fight. If you don't think you have an edge, then you should avoid that fight. That's the rule of thumb anyways, but rules can be broken.

**bjpenn85** · 05-17-16, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

It often comes down to one big fight in the end for me as well when killing it or breaking even with an event..

I'm crazy though as I bet on every fight with every event.. I simply want to be entertained when watching more then anything else. Horrible rule of gambling and I know, I don't recommend anyone trying what I do....

I do go the extra mile though and bust my ass capping all the fights so I have a fighting chance to win in the end... I bet heavier on the fights I like and feel good about and bet less or look for massive prop value on the ones I don't.. I'll also try to hedge when I see a clear pathways to victory for each fighter..

Odds have to work out though on all bets...

If i had some numbers maybe i would totally changes my strategy. The one play for the night really confident in, like trinaldo, playing only that bet would have saved me a lot of sweat and tears.

**JIBBBY** · 05-17-16, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

If i had some numbers maybe i would totally changes my strategy. The one play for the night really confident in, like trinaldo, playing only that bet would have saved me a lot of sweat and tears.

Yeah, just betting heavy on one or two fights that you are most confident at -odds should pay off for most strong MMA cappers with every event.. Josh was good at that..

What fun is it if you are a true fan of the sport and really enjoy watching all the fights with action riding? It's a rush and I love it with each UFC event...

I just can't do the 1 or 2 best plays for each event.. Doesn't work for me anyways.. I find myself winning alot on fights that I'm not that confident on and then playing great prop odds and or hedging for profit both ways..

MMA is a tricky sport to gamble on because one good punch or kick could throw capping logic right out the window..

You need to be good and lucky IMO...