UFC on FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone (December 19, 2015)

[UncleChael]

After Johnson wins, what would be your excuse? You cant say..ohh but he wasnt in shape, because he probably isnt in shape. He didnt look himsellf, well, hes not going to look the same. The diaz for two years ago isnt today.

So whats your excuse?

Hello sir.

[JoshKnows46]

Hello sir.

he cashed on diaz as well, Unc.

[UncleChael]

he cashed on diaz as well, Unc.

Trust me that dude is too hard headed to make a dime off Nate.

[bjpenn85]

Hello sir.

Huge mistake. Made a 180 turn afterwards and betted diaz su and fight going the distance so instead of losing i won a decent chunk which again made me risk even more on dos anjos. This event would had gone horrbly if it wasnt for josh. So no excuses, well done. I was wrong, you were right.

Tried to upload the file with result from my account, i got the message file is to big, tried to change it, but it didnt work out.

[UncleChael]

Huge mistake. Made a 180 turn afterwards and betted diaz su and fight going the distance so instead of losing i won a decent chunk which again made me risk even more on dos anjos. This event would had gone horrbly if it wasnt for josh. So no excuses, well done. I was wrong, you were right.

Tried to upload the file with result from my account, i got the message file is to big, tried to change it, but it didnt work out.

Good day, to you Sir. Like jibbs said early .. I don't like me questioned.. haha WAR DIAZ!!!!
P.S RDA came off a knee injury that didn't make him 100% while Cowboy was red HOT.. and RDA put on his best performance.. lay off theory = myth.

[JoshKnows46]

Good day, to you Sir. Like jibbs said early .. I don't like me questioned.. haha WAR DIAZ!!!!
P.S RDA came off a knee injury that didn't make him 100% while Cowboy was red HOT.. and RDA put on his best performance.. lay off theory = myth.

Rda wasn't out for a long layoff, that's about how often championship fighters take off between fights 6 to 9 months. 9 months isn't long between fights and he had a full training camp. Plus cowboy starts every fight rusty like he is off a long layoff, so the fight was never getting long enough to see rda cardio, which would have been great as 9 months isn't a long lay off. Now Cain Velasquez coming back after a year half fighting above sea level, against a equally skill opp, that's where u can consider a long layoff. You can't take it into account when one fighter is massively more skilled then the other like rda vs cowboy, rda could have had a 2 year layoff, it wouldn't have mattered. Diaz had a long layoff but hardly no one can come into a octagon and think they can out box a diaz brother, plus he was in the best shape of his life, u could see that from pictures. Long layoffs are a great tool to use, but that can't be the bases of your bet solely.

[bjpenn85]

Good day, to you Sir. Like jibbs said early .. I don't like me questioned.. haha WAR DIAZ!!!!
P.S RDA came off a knee injury that didn't make him 100% while Cowboy was red HOT.. and RDA put on his best performance.. lay off theory = myth.

Its crazy, sometimes lay off means something other times not. In this case, with diaz, he has developed his striking for so many years so he had a significant advantage standing, and since MJ wouldnt risk to take him down he was pretty much forced to stand and trade with the better puncher with reach advantage. The layoff was to small anyway, 1 year isnt long enough layoff to cause ring rust most of the times. I think two years are pretty bad. Mcrory had 5 years, before KO ward, but he was that much skilled + reach advantage so every f case need to be weighed with outmost precision. You cant sleep, and i def slept. Afterwards is so obvious as well..who do you go for, the better striker, with the reach advantage, who didnt risk to get taken down @ +400? The mistakes one makes, a never ending story...(although i did adjust at last)

[JoshKnows46]

Its crazy, sometimes lay off means something other times not. In this case, with diaz, he has developed his striking for so many years so he had a significant advantage standing, and since MJ wouldnt risk to take him down he was pretty much forced to stand and trade with the better puncher with reach advantage. The layoff was to small anyway, 1 year isnt long enough layoff to cause ring rust most of the times. I think two years are pretty bad. Mcrory had 5 years, before KO ward, but he was that much skilled + reach advantage so every f case need to be weighed with outmost precision. You cant sleep, and i def slept. Afterwards is so obvious as well..who do you go for, the better striker, with the reach advantage, who didnt risk to get taken down @ +400? The mistakes one makes, a never ending story...(although i did adjust at last)

Yes if Johnson would have taken him down, the fight would have been finished much sooner. To also add it was southpaw vs southpaw. Southpaws have a advantage over orthodox strikers, why u see Johnson diaz mcgregor constantly overwhelm orthodox counter parts. Johnson didn't have that advantage in this fight.

[UncleChael]

Rda wasn't out for a long layoff, that's about how often championship fighters take off between fights 6 to 9 months. 9 months isn't long between fights and he had a full training camp. Plus cowboy starts every fight rusty like he is off a long layoff, so the fight was never getting long enough to see rda cardio, which would have been great as 9 months isn't a long lay off. Now Cain Velasquez coming back after a year half fighting above sea level, against a equally skill opp, that's where u can consider a long layoff. You can't take it into account when one fighter is massively more skilled then the other like rda vs cowboy, rda could have had a 2 year layoff, it wouldn't have mattered. Diaz had a long layoff but hardly no one can come into a octagon and think they can out box a diaz brother, plus he was in the best shape of his life, u could see that from pictures. Long layoffs are a great tool to use, but that can't be the bases of your bet solely.

Okay, I lied. Not a myth. I believe Cain got played.. but this a game of many factors. About the Diaz fight.. he was training wanting a big fight.. and he had been fighting in the UFC longer than MJ has been fighting pro. I love this game. Jan 2, boys! WAR LAWLER!!!

[JIBBBY]

Yes if Johnson would have taken him down, the fight would have been finished much sooner. To also add it was southpaw vs southpaw. Southpaws have a advantage over orthodox strikers, why u see Johnson diaz mcgregor constantly overwhelm orthodox counter parts. Johnson didn't have that advantage in this fight.

I would have liked to see MJ take down Nate because it was clear he wasn't winning the stand up war after a round.. Not a very cerebral fighter is MJ or his corner men for that matter.. MJ was clearly the better wrestler on paper going in and I'm guessing MJ could have taken down Nate when ever he wanted too.. Nate's take down defense is for shiit..

Now whether or not Nate would have sub'd out MJ off his back is something we will never know... Successful take downs and top control scores points especially at the end of rounds.. MJ should have tried for a TD at the end of every round... He may have walked away with the victory in the judges eyes..

[JIBBBY]

Gotta say you're on point with your hedges though Jibs.. Diaz dec and RDA tko.. Good job.

Thanks Miri, about the only thing that was really working for me last night were the hedges in the main card...

I tested the hedge waters really for the first time last night and it really worked to protect bank roll.. I'm gonna do this with every card now when the odds are right for the hedge prop vs straight wager and when it makes sense...

For example - Let's say you bet $200 to win $200 on an even odds straight win bet that you really like.. You then think how the other fighter can win the fight most likely, search out the prop and if it's +400, you then bet $50 to win $200 on that prop.. Your covered most likely both ways now...

So in the end you win $150 rather then $200 but you have the insurance and peace of mind of the hedge going on the other side..

I think it's a smarter way to gamble in MMA... I've seen the light!!!!

[JoshKnows46]

Thanks Miri, about the only thing that was really working for me last night were the hedges in the main card...

I tested the hedge waters really for the first time last night and it really worked to protect bank roll.. I'm gonna do this with every card now when the odds are right for the hedge prop vs straight wager and when it makes sense...

For example - Let's say you bet $200 to win $200 on an even odds straight win bet that you really like.. You then think how the other fighter can win the fight most likely, search out the prop and if it's +400, you then bet $50 to win $200 on that prop.. Your covered most likely both ways now...

So in the end you win $150 rather then $200 but you have the insurance and peace of mind of the hedge going on the other side..

I think it's a smarter way to gamble in MMA... I've seen the light!!!!

Great job last night, be selective like you were tonight with it however, also leaves you open to lose 2 bets if it doesn't go as expected. I wouldn't do it every fight. Picking the method of victory is much harder then picking the side in most cases, keep up the good work.

[JoshKnows46]

Jib, hope u don't mind me pointing out something I noticed, because i almost made the same mistake myself, and maybe u can look for it in the future, and it can help with ur hedges as well. I saw you bet Johnson by decision at -121. I almost did the same as a hedge because I knew that was his only chance to win because of diaz chin and ground game..but I then noticed to go the 3 round distance was very similar in odds at -150, which was basically the same hedge but I didn't have to give back any winnings and could actually profit more if diaz was the one that got the dec. Just something to keep in mind when ur hedging, if you can almost get similar odds like -121 and -150. I just had to risk 300 more, 1500 instead of 1200, and it made a huge diffrence in my final profit.

[TPowell]

I had Johnson by decision myself. Should have took Diaz as well I suppose

[JIBBBY]

Jib, hope u don't mind me pointing out something I noticed, because i almost made the same mistake myself, and maybe u can look for it in the future, and it can help with ur hedges as well. I saw you bet Johnson by decision at -121. I almost did the same as a hedge because I knew that was his only chance to win because of diaz chin and ground game..but I then noticed to go the 3 round distance was very similar in odds at -150, which was basically the same hedge but I didn't have to give back any winnings and could actually profit more if diaz was the one that got the dec. Just something to keep in mind when ur hedging, if you can almost get similar odds like -121 and -150. I just had to risk 300 more, 1500 instead of 1200, and it made a huge diffrence in my final profit.

Yep, I miss those sometimes and they are so very obvious at times after you miss it.. Frustrating.. You can certainly find better odds on a more logical prop with the same basic idea in mind at times.. I pay more attention to that now myself..

I actually did a hedge mistake on the Reem/JDS fight at first glance when the props first came out - The Reem KO prop wasn't out yet at the time, I got impatient and hit this below..

$50.00

$182.00

Win

12/19/15 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1105 Overeem wins inside distance +364* <small>vs</small> Not Overeem inside distance

I then hit the Reem KO prop after as well but was not happy as it was cutting into my profits if JDS would have won.. Not complaining as both props cashed but the KO Reem prop was the best play for value by far....

Gotta pay attention to different prop values for sure Josh.. ..

[bjpenn85]

Great job last night, be selective like you were tonight with it however, also leaves you open to lose 2 bets if it doesn't go as expected. I wouldn't do it every fight. Picking the method of victory is much harder then picking the side in most cases, keep up the good work.

Great point here. I started to do this every event, and found out that all the hedges reduced profit and occasionally you will loose on both bets, which sucks hard. Sometimes you find out later you should bet on KO as a hedge, and then fakk, i need to hedge on submission as well, and then suddenly you break even at best, but loose on almost all outcomes. Its better than to take a step back and think, if i do need hedge, really, how good is this bet, what does it say about my level of confidence?

[JIBBBY]

Great point here. I started to do this every event, and found out that all the hedges reduced profit and occasionally you will loose on both bets, which sucks hard. Sometimes you find out later you should bet on KO as a hedge, and then fakk, i need to hedge on submission as well, and then suddenly you break even at best, but loose on almost all outcomes. Its better than to take a step back and think, if i do need hedge, really, how good is this bet, what does it say about my level of confidence?

Yeah, but some fighters you just know aren't gonna win by submission or lose by submission, and some fighters you know will likely go to decision and not get the KO or get KO'd.. I think it's pretty obvious at times myself..

For example like in the Reem/JDS fight, Reems best chance of winning was to win by KO, JDS has a better gas tank and is a solid striker himself so a Reem decision win was not likely as both have KO power also.. Chances were Reem wouldn't win by Submission either as JDS is a BBJ and is very solid in submission defense..

So the Hedge play for the Reem fight if you were on JDS was Reem winning by KO... Pretty solid hedge I thought anyways..

Hedges have to be very obvious like that or you don't play them I agree...

[bjpenn85]

Yeah, but some fighters you just know aren't gonna win by submission or lose by submission, and some fighters you know will likely go to decision and not get the KO or get KO'd.. I think it's pretty obvious at times myself..

For example like in the Reem/JDS fight, Reems best chance of winning was to win by KO, JDS has a better gas tank and is a solid striker himself so a Reem decision win was not likely as both have KO power also.. Chances were Reem wouldn't win by Submission either as JDS is a BBJ and is very solid in submission defense..

So the Hedge play for the Reem fight if you were on JDS was Reem winning by KO... Pretty solid hedge I thought anyways..

Hedges have to be very obvious like that or you don't play them I agree...

Yes, agreed. Thats exactly what i meant.

[PaperTrail07]

Shoulda Have toSsEd a Hundo On It

Wager Type : Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status : Win Risk / To Win Amount : 15.00 / 736.28(USD)
Accepted : 12/19/2015 2:53PM - PST

Won : 736.28
Amount Paid : 751.28

#1) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MMA Fighting / Game
Selection :	N. Diaz	Time :	12/19/2015 5:35:01PM - (PST)
Line :	+320	Result :	N. Diaz 3 - M. Johnson 0

#2) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MMA Fighting / Game
Selection :	N. Marquardt	Time :	12/19/2015 4:05:01PM - (PST)
Line :	+350	Result :	N. Marquardt 1 - C.B. Dollaway 0

#3) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MMA Fighting / Game
Selection :	T. McCrory	Time :	12/19/2015 3:00:01PM - (PST)
Line :	+165	Result :	T. McCrory 3 - J. Samman 0

[JoshKnows46]

Shoulda Have toSsEd a Hundo On It

Wager Type : Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status : Win Risk / To Win Amount : 15.00 / 736.28(USD)
Accepted : 12/19/2015 2:53PM - PST

Won : 736.28
Amount Paid : 751.28

#1) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MMA Fighting / Game
Selection :	N. Diaz	Time :	12/19/2015 5:35:01PM - (PST)
Line :	+320	Result :	N. Diaz 3 - M. Johnson 0

#2) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MMA Fighting / Game
Selection :	N. Marquardt	Time :	12/19/2015 4:05:01PM - (PST)
Line :	+350	Result :	N. Marquardt 1 - C.B. Dollaway 0

#3) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MMA Fighting / Game
Selection :	T. McCrory	Time :	12/19/2015 3:00:01PM - (PST)
Line :	+165	Result :	T. McCrory 3 - J. Samman 0

Shit, that's boss, nice hit.

[JIBBBY]

Really Nice Paper... GOOD JOB!!!! $15 to win $736 is simply awesome!!

[PaperTrail07]

Only In MMA boys..... Thanks Fellas ----