WSOF 23: Gaethje vs Palomino 2, Friday September 18th

[Sanity Check]

Opening odds.

[JIBBBY]

Odds came out... Another view of the odds Sanity with the o/u's..

<small>WSOF 23 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Comerica Theatre - Phoenix, Arizona - NBC Sports</small>
Fri 9/18		6001 Luis Palomino		<input id="editx" name="M1_8" size="4"> +415	<input id="editx" name="L1_8" size="4"> o1½ -260
10:00PM		6002 Justin Gaethje		<input id="editx" name="M2_8" size="4"> -635	<input id="editx" name="L2_8" size="4"> u1½ +180
<small>WSOF 23 - Light Heavyweight 5 rounds - Comerica Theatre - Phoenix, Arizona - NBC Sports</small>
Fri 9/18		6101 Teddy Holder		<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4"> +300	<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4"> o1½ +100
10:00PM		6102 Dave Branch		<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4"> -420	<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4"> u1½ -140
<small>WSOF 23 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Comerica Theatre - Phoenix, Arizona - NBC Sports</small>
Fri 9/18		6201 Tito Jones		<input id="editx" name="M1_10" size="4"> +467	<input id="editx" name="L1_10" size="4"> o1½ -190
10:00PM		6202 Timur Valiev		<input id="editx" name="M2_10" size="4"> -800	<input id="editx" name="L2_10" size="4"> u1½ +150
<small>WSOF 23 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Comerica Theatre - Phoenix, Arizona - NBC Sports</small>
Fri 9/18		6301 Roberto Yong		<input id="editx" name="M1_11" size="4"> +190	<input id="editx" name="L1_11" size="4"> o1½ -185
10:00PM		6302 Ben Fodor		<input id="editx" name="M2_11" size="4"> -270	<input id="editx" name="L2_11" size="4"> u1½ +145
Fri 9/18		6401 LaRue Burley		<input id="editx" name="M1_12" size="4"> +110	<input id="editx" name="L1_12" size="4"> o2½ +130
10:00PM		6402 Brian Foster		<input id="editx" name="M2_12" size="4"> -150	<input id="editx" name="L2_12" size="4"> u2½ -170
<small>WSOF 23 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Comerica Theatre - Phoenix, Arizona</small>
Fri 9/18		6501 Krasimir Mladenov		<input id="editx" name="M1_13" size="4"> +135
7:00PM		6502 Clifford Starks		<input id="editx" name="M2_13" size="4"> -175

Combatpress - http://combatpress.com/2015/09/wsof-...d-predictions/

[JIBBBY]

Bloodyelbow predictions - Old prediction to show the first matchup.. I edited... Disregard..

[Unwritten Law]

Old predictions.

[JIBBBY]

Old predictions.

Can throw up some head to head stats.. Tapology is always good for that..

http://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/34025-wsof-23-gaethje-vs-palomino-2

[JIBBBY]

Old predictions.

Decent predictions vid from bloodyelbow.. This is current Unwritten - http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/9/17...lysis-mma-talk

[JIBBBY]

We also have Titan FC on Saturday... I think Rick Hawn has a chance against Pat Heally as a dog play at +125... Desmond Green as well probably gets the win..

<small>Titan FC 35 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Clark County Fairgrounds Event Center - Ridgefield, Washington - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 9/19		8001 Pat Healy		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> -145	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o4½ -165
8:00PM		8002 Rick Hawn		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> +125	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u4½ +145
<small>Titan FC 35 - Featherweight 5 rounds - Clark County Fairgrounds Event Center - Ridgefield, Washington - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 9/19		8101 Desmond Green		<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> -105	<input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4"> o4½ -190
8:00PM		8102 Andre Harrison		<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -115	<input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4"> u4½ +165
<small>Titan FC 35 - Flyweight 5 rounds - Clark County Fairgrounds Event Center - Ridgefield, Washington - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 9/19		8201 Felipe Efrain		<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +290	<input id="editx" name="L1_2" size="4"> o3½ -165
8:00PM		8202 Tim Elliott		<input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -350	<input id="editx" name="L2_2" size="4"> u3½ +145
<small>Titan FC 35 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Clark County Fairgrounds Event Center - Ridgefield, Washington - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 9/19		8301 Austin Springer		<input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> +330	<input id="editx" name="L1_3" size="4"> o1½ -145
8:00PM		8302 Steven Siler		<input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> -450	<input id="editx" name="L2_3" size="4"> u1½ +115
<small>Titan FC 35 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Clark County Fairgrounds Event Center - Ridgefield, Washington - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 9/19		8401 Zane Kamaka		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +250	<input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ -205
8:00PM		8402 Belal Muhammad		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -325	<input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ +165

[Sanity Check]

Thx for that Jibby. Had no idea Titan FC was otw.

Pat Healy has looked like a beast since he started training with Cowboy Cerrone at the BMF (Bad Mother Flucker) ranch. He looks much improved since making the transition. Rick Hawn looks like he might be past his prime and on a decline. I think Hawn is close to 40? "Genghis Hawn" is still one of the best monikers in the business.

Zane Kamaka at +250 is a maybe. He lost the prelim fight to get into the house on TUF, but has to train with Max Holloway and Yancy Medeiros and some decent lvl competition cuz they're all practically from the same town. I might be biased being from hawaii and having to pull for the hometown guy.

Desmond Green looked good in bellator, but his opponent might be better. Not sure on that 1.

Siler and Tim Elliott should be locks, unless something crazy happens.

[JIBBBY]

No problem Sanity as I thought to post up Titan on this thread.....

Pat Healy does impress lately ratting off 3 straight wins and appears to be fighting with toughness and heart, I can't argue that Sanity.. That's Pat Healy though in a nut shell.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Pat-Healy-6246 Healy's not been facing UFC level competition anymore and that surely has helped him look good lately IMO also..

I just think Rick Hawn has the better stand up and might be able to keep this fight at length with his Judo back ground, maybe knock out Pat Healy early on...

It's a tough fight to pick the more I think about it and I agree that maybe Pat Healy could out work, grind and wear down 39 year old Rick Hawn and possibly get a decision win.. Just saw that Rick Hawn as the dog against the slow methodical Pat Healy might be worth the play.. Pat Healy should have the cardio advantage so we see???...

Rick Hawn has won his last 2 fights by decision so I was thinking this will be a close fight either way.. Couple of veterans.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rick-Hawn-42680

[Sanity Check]

Ben Fodor could be fade material. He showed up at weigh ins a few pounds over.

edit - then again, he's dropping from 170 to 155. Its hard to tell whether he missed weight or is just fine tuning his drop to a lower weight class.

WSOF 23 ‘Gaethje vs. Palomino 2’ Weigh-in Results:
Justin Gaethje (154.7) vs. Luis Palomino (154.2)
David Branch (204) vs. Teddy Holder (202.4)
Timur Valiev (135.9) vs. Tito Jones (134.7)
Ben Fodor (161.6) vs. Roberto Yong (157.3)
Brian Foster (155.7) vs. LaRue Burley (154.9)
Vagab Vagabov (184.9) vs. Brian Grinnell (181.9)
Clifford Starks (186) vs. Krasimir Mladenov (185.7)
Matthew Frincu (170.3) vs. Danny Davis Jr. (169.5)
Andres Ponce (137.5) vs. David Nuzzo (136)
Randy Steinke (135.9) vs. Joey Miolla (135)
Benny Madrid (160.3) vs. Jeff Fletcher (154.2)

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/WSOF-23-Weighin-Results-Justin-Gaethje-Luis-Palomino-Cleared-for-Title-Rematch-92541

[Unwritten Law]

I like the over 1.5 Gaethje / Palomino. Both are tough as nails and Palomino refuses to give up and can take tons of punishment. I think coming in Gaethje will respect Palomino more as it should sail over the total.

[JIBBBY]

These are pretty much my picks in a nut shell for tonight.. Good luck fellas..


09/18/2015
09:57 AM

[Ticket #: 225508895] PARLAY (5 TEAMS) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24251] TOTAL o1.5 -175 (LUIS PALOMINO vrs JUSTIN GAETHJE) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24256] DAVE BRANCH -375 (TEDDY HOLDER vrs DAVE BRANCH) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24260] TIMUR VALIEV -1321 (TITO JONES vrs TIMUR VALIEV) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24264] BEN FODOR -255 (ROBERTO YONG vrs BEN FODOR) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24268] BRIAN FOSTER -135 (LARUE BURLEY vrs BRIAN FOSTER)

09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM

MU

[24256] TOTAL u1.5 -130 (TEDDY HOLDER vrs DAVE BRANCH)

[Sanity Check]

I got LaRue Burley and light on Teddy Holder.

[JIBBBY]

Here we go with the televised fights up next!!!

Going with Brian Foster myself..

[JIBBBY]

Brian Foster lit this undefeated chump up!! That was some solid shots he landed.... Very accurate punches.. Sorry for you guys on Burley...

[Sanity Check]

Burley wins the rematch 9/10.

[JIBBBY]

Burley wins the rematch 9/10.

Not sure about that Sanity???.. Alot of experience with Brian Foster and he's fighting very confident right now.. It showed in this fight..

[Sanity Check]

I think as long as it goes the distance Burley wins, he never gets tired, his cardio is off the charts. Foster needed to finish the fight very quickly, that was his only chance of winning and Burley handed it to him on a silver platter. Burley would never do that again in the rematch.

Anywayz, Phoenix Jones!

[JIBBBY]

$40.90	$73.40		Win	2 Team Parlay
									Win	9/18/15 10:00pm WSOF Fighting 6402 Brian Foster -135* <small>vs</small> LaRue Burley
									Win	9/18/15 7:00pm WSOF Fighting 6502 Clifford Starks -165* <small>vs</small> Krasimir Mladenov

Doing ok so far all small stuff though...

[Sanity Check]

That's cool. I like it when people bet opposite of me, at least someone wins no matter the outcome. Tomorrow will be the same with you on Hawn and me on Healy.

Teddy Holder is like a smaller version of Matt Mitrione. Outstanding athlete from a football background. David Branch balloons up in weight and gets fat inbetween fights. If it comes down to cardio and athleticism, I think Holder will win. But Branch could have an advantage in terms of skill.

[JIBBBY]

Edit.. Post fail.. My bad.. Not on Teddy Holder.. Little drunk and got the fighters confused..

[Sanity Check]

I got Teddy Holder and the under.. Let's both get this Sanity!!!

I got Holder in a few budget parlays, hedging on the over. I think the over is Branch's only chance of winning, we will see. Should've hedged LaRue on the under. Hit the over 1.5 on Valiev vs Jones. Clueless on Palomino vs Gaethje.

[JIBBBY]

I got Holder in a few budget parlays, hedging on the over. I think the over is Branch's only chance of winning, we will see. Should've hedged LaRue on the under. Hit the over 1.5 on Valiev vs Jones. Clueless on Palomino vs Gaethje.

Sorry Sanity I'm on David Branch, got confused for second.. Let's see who wins???

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

that was fast...

[JIBBBY]

Branch easy submission and the under hits.. Nice.. Just need the over to hit in this main event and I'm golden tonight..

09/18/2015 @ 08:55 PM	MU	[24251] TOTAL o1.5 -175 (LUIS PALOMINO vrs JUSTIN GAETHJE)
09/18/2015 @ 08:20 PM	MU	[24256] DAVE BRANCH -375 (TEDDY HOLDER vrs DAVE BRANCH)
09/18/2015 @ 07:48 PM	MU	[24260] TIMUR VALIEV -1321 (TITO JONES vrs TIMUR VALIEV)
09/18/2015 @ 07:26 PM	MU	[24264] BEN FODOR -255 (ROBERTO YONG vrs BEN FODOR)
09/18/2015 @ 07:06 PM	MU	[24268] BRIAN FOSTER -135 (LARUE BURLEY vrs BRIAN FOSTER)

[Sanity Check]

Look like you hit both, good job. Holder has no ground game, he's more like Mitrione than I thought. Hahaha.

[JIBBBY]

Look like you hit both, good job. Holder has no ground game, he's more like Mitrione than I thought. Hahaha.

Yep, he looked like a fish out of water and gave up his back and neck like a white belt.. Really bad on the ground..

[JIBBBY]

Had to try Palomino for small last minute as his line jumped to +650 on 5d.. He does have a punchers chance...

Pending9/18/15 11:59pm WSOF Fighting 6001 Luis Palomino +650* <small>vs</small> Justin Gaethje

[Sanity Check]

I made two bargain basement parlays on Palomino and the under 1.5.

If I'm wrong this much, I might as well be wrong on all of em'.

[JIBBBY]

These are pretty much my picks in a nut shell for tonight.. Good luck fellas..


09/18/2015
09:57 AM

[Ticket #: 225508895] PARLAY (5 TEAMS) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24251] TOTAL o1.5 -175 (LUIS PALOMINO vrs JUSTIN GAETHJE) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24256] DAVE BRANCH -375 (TEDDY HOLDER vrs DAVE BRANCH) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24260] TIMUR VALIEV -1321 (TITO JONES vrs TIMUR VALIEV) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24264] BEN FODOR -255 (ROBERTO YONG vrs BEN FODOR) 09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM MU [24268] BRIAN FOSTER -135 (LARUE BURLEY vrs BRIAN FOSTER)

09/18/2015 @ 07:00 PM

MU

[24256] TOTAL u1.5 -130 (TEDDY HOLDER vrs DAVE BRANCH)

Think I hit almost every bet tonight.. Missed maybe one o/u and the small straight on Palomino.. This ended up being a nice night especially with this 5 teamer parlay hit above and that under in the Dave Branch fight.. Next up Bellator..

Sanity thanks for posting tonight and you'll probably nail down Bellator tomorrow.. Like you said it is hit and miss at times..

[Unwritten Law]

Looks like we've had a good night, Jibbby.

I went to YSA (Yamamoto Sports Academy) yesterday in Tokyo and was hoping to catch Kid Yamamoto and Kyoji Horiguchi, unfortunately, they weren't and cute Japanese chick at counter said Kid would be in tomorrow afternoon and Kyoji was training karate at another gym. Was hoping to see how they were doing. Can't wait for next week!

[Unwritten Law]

Lightweight champion Pat Healy weighed in three pounds over the limit for his 155-pound bout with Rick Hawn. As a result, Healy was stripped of the belt, according to Titan FC officials.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/titan-fc-35-results-lightweight-champ-pat-healy-055432219--mma.html

[JIBBBY]

Lightweight champion Pat Healy weighed in three pounds over the limit for his 155-pound bout with Rick Hawn. As a result, Healy was stripped of the belt, according to Titan FC officials.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/titan-fc-35-results-lightweight-champ-pat-healy-055432219--mma.html

Too bad Rick Hawn is automatically awarded the win and all bets on Rick Hawn are cashed already.. I think I already have a 50 spot riding on Hawn... Small stuff..

[Sanity Check]

Lightweight champion Pat Healy weighed in three pounds over the limit for his 155-pound bout with Rick Hawn. As a result, Healy was stripped of the belt, according to Titan FC officials.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/titan-fc-35-results-lightweight-champ-pat-healy-055432219--mma.html

Looking at the size difference, I'd never have guessed Hawn was cutting down from welterweight.

I still think Healy takes this.

Think I hit almost every bet tonight.. Missed maybe one o/u and the small straight on Palomino.. This ended up being a nice night especially with this 5 teamer parlay hit above and that under in the Dave Branch fight.. Next up Bellator..

Sanity thanks for posting tonight and you'll probably nail down Bellator tomorrow.. Like you said it is hit and miss at times..

I did ok on the last UFC card people got skunked on. It might balance out in the end.

[JIBBBY]

^^ They both look depleted and drained.. Rick Hawn should be a better fighter at the lower weight.. Still on Hawn as I'm sure Pat Healy killed himself trying to make that weight cut and then missed it.. Not sure the size is going to matter as Pat Healy doesn't fight tall.. He is a grinder and comes straight forward..

Odds went to even now on the fight..

<small>Titan FC 35 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Clark County Fairgrounds Event Center - Ridgefield, Washington - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 9/19		8001 Pat Healy		<input id="radiox" value="M1_0" name="radiox" type="radio">-110	<input id="radiox" value="L1_0" name="radiox" type="radio">o4½ -160
10:00PM		8002 Rick Hawn		<input id="radiox" value="M2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">-110	<input id="radiox" value="L2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">u4½ +140