UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs. Lamas (April 4, 2015)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX Sports 1, 1 p.m. ET
Ricardo Lamas vs. Chad Mendes
Al Iaquinta vs. Jorge Masvidal
Michael Chiesa vs. Mitch Clarke
Milana Dudieva vs. Julianna Pena
Clay Guida vs. Robbie Peralta
Diego Ferreira vs. Dustin Poirier

FOX Sports 1, 11 a.m. ET
Liz Carmouche vs. Lauren Murphy
Gray Maynard vs. Alexander Yakovlev
Shamil Abdurahimov vs. Timothy Johnson
Justin Jones vs. Ron Stallings

[Hollafront]

Mendes via decision. Also liking Masvidal. How's Iaquinta's grappling?

[JIBBBY]

Solid main card and liking this line up for it being a fight night and not a PPV event!!!

Masvidal vs Al Iaquinta is a great match up!! Really have mixed thoughts on how to pick that one????

[Karmaphobia]

Do these fights really start at 11:00 am (est)??? Seems kinda early for a North American card...

[JIBBBY]

Do these fights really start at 11:00 am (est)??? Seems kinda early for a North American card...

Looks that way Karma...


I'm jumping on Alexander Yakovlev at +120 now as he's facing another washed up fighter that's much like KOS in Gray Maynard.. Gray Maynard has been Ko'd in his last 3 fights and at age 35 I don't see him turning it around.. Alexander has been the more active fighter and is very hard to knock out as well..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gray-Maynard-15835

[JIBBBY]

A dog play worth considering gents -

Clay "the Carpenter" Guida is kinda on the down slide losing 4 of his last 6 fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184
Even though he's changed camps recently and is trying to switch things up it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks.. Anyways me tinks there is value in Robbie Peralta at +200...

Clay Guida may get dropped by Robbie standing in this one.. 13 Ko's in 18 fight wins....Clay Guida often gets exposed when standing... 29 year old Robbie is pretty athletic and may not be that easy to take down and grind on are my thoughts anyways going into this scrap....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robbie-Peralta-21339

[Hollafront]

Jibby, I'm gonna bite your rolls

[UncleChael]

Why do you guys like Masdival?

[JIBBBY]

Why do you guys like Masdival?

Cause he's smooth and slick standing, well rounded, and solid on the ground.. 5-1 in the UFC.. Masvidal has a knack for out striking his opponents and winning decisions.. He's also never been KO'd and has twice the pro fight experience as Al Iaquinta as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jorge-Masvidal-7688

I also like Al Iaquinta alot as he's a Chris Weidman prodigy, seems to be getting better with every fight.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Al-Iaquinta-42817

I'm thinking Al has been sub'd out twice in the UFC and that may be where Masvidal might be able to capitalize late in this fight especially if he's out pointing AL and winning the stand up battle which I think he can do.. Masvidal is the taller fighter with reach...

I'm still on the fence with this fight though....

[CaptChaos145]

Cause he's smooth and slick standing, well rounded, and solid on the ground.. 5-1 in the UFC.. Masvidal has a knack for out striking his opponents and winning decisions.. He's also never been KO'd and has twice the pro fight experience as Al Iaquinta as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jorge-Masvidal-7688

I also like Al Iaquinta alot as he's a Chris Weidman prodigy, seems to be getting better with every fight.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Al-Iaquinta-42817

I'm thinking Al has been sub'd out twice in the UFC and that may be where Masvidal might be able to capitalize late in this fight especially if he's out pointing AL and winning the stand up battle which I think he can do.. Masvidal is the taller fighter with reach...

I'm still on the fence with this fight though....

Very good analysis imo. But I am not on the fence with this fight. Masvidal all day. I think Masvidal is a steal at that price. Al has been hot but he will hit a road block here.

[CaptChaos145]

Average ground game. He has a lot of confidence in his hands right now as he should cause he took out Ross Pearson and JLO. Those 2 have a combined 60 fights and neither has been knocked out cold. Al stopped them both as viciously as anyone they've ever fought. Side note JLo has only been stopped 4 times by strikes in 34 fights and Ross has been stopped 3 times by strikes in 25 fights. Al has 2 of those 7 stoppages.

[CaptChaos145]

Looks that way Karma...


I'm jumping on Alexander Yakovlev at +120 now as he's facing another washed up fighter that's much like KOS in Gray Maynard.. Gray Maynard has been Ko'd in his last 3 fights and at age 35 I don't see him turning it around.. Alexander has been the more active fighter and is very hard to knock out as well..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gray-Maynard-15835

And this will be Alexander's debut at 155 after 27 fights.

[Unwritten Law]

Initial leans on Chad "Money" Mendes, Al "Bundy" Iaquinta, and Peralta/Guida over 2.5.

[JIBBBY]

And this will be Alexander's debut at 155 after 27 fights.

Yep, coming down from 170 to 155 should give him the strength to deal with Gray Maynards wrestling if needed hopefully... Regardless he should be a big 155er just like Maynard come fight time.....

[JIBBBY]

Initial leans on Chad "Money" Mendes, Al "Bundy" Iaquinta, and Peralta/Guida over 2.5.

Also on Chad Mendes... The Guida/Peralta O 2.5 seems like it could land if Guida doesn't get dropped before that mid way mark in the 2nd.. Gotta pay to play that at -175..

Good leans Unwritten Law me tinks!!!

I've personally been stinking it up with the O/U round bets lately so I'm taking a back seat to playing those in future cards.. Still can't pull the trigger on Iaquinta/Masvidal just yet either.. May wait til weigh ins to decide..

I'm on Chiesa and Pena for sure.. May slam those 2 in a parlay... Will be looking to play Dustin Poirier as well..

Going with this 5 buck parlay as I always do....

$5.00	$450.50	Pending	9 Team Parlay
				Pending	4/4/15 3:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Chad Mendes -425* <small>vs</small> Ricardo Lamas
				Pending	4/4/15 3:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Jorge Masvidal -130* <small>vs</small> Al laquinta
				Pending	4/4/15 2:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Michael Chiesa -350* <small>vs</small> Mitch Clarke
				Pending	4/4/15 2:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Julianna Pena -285* <small>vs</small> Milana Dudieva
				Pending	4/4/15 1:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Robbie Peralta +205* <small>vs</small> Clay Guida
				Pending	4/4/15 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Dustin Poirier -180* <small>vs</small> Diego Ferreira
				Pending	4/4/15 12:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Lauren Murphy -110* <small>vs</small> Liz Carmouche
				Pending	4/4/15 12:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 Alexander Yakovlev -105* <small>vs</small> Gray Maynard
				Pending	4/4/15 11:30am UFC Fighting 1802 Shamil Abdurahimov -280* <small>vs</small> Timothy Johnson

[Pabst]

Im on the fence of betting some underdog, probably won't pull the trigger and bet them.
I got one bet I REALLY like ;

Clay Guida -275 5.5U to win 2U

Guida still has a chin on him and I'm very confident he will wrestlefuk Peralta to a UD. Hell, the brazilian lost a decision to Akira-fukin-Corassani less then 2 years ago.

Go on Guida Jibby, don't throw that money out of the window like that.

[JIBBBY]

Im on the fence of betting some underdog, probably won't pull the trigger and bet them.
I got one bet I REALLY like ;

Clay Guida -275 5.5U to win 2U

Guida still has a chin on him and I'm very confident he will wrestlefuk Peralta to a UD. Hell, the brazilian lost a decision to Akira-fukin-Corassani less then 2 years ago.

Go on Guida Jibby, don't throw that money out of the window like that.

Best of luck Pabst on that Clay Guida play and thanks for the heads up..

Too late for me as I already placed on Robbie Peralta and there's no turning back now... I'd agree with you that the Clay Guida of 3 to 4 years ago would probably wrestle fock Peralta but today I think he's on the decline, searching and trying for ways to change his game up which is not always a good thing. Guida's 2 wins in his last 6 fights were close decisions wins against Kawajiri and Hioko and that's just not that impressive.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184

Guida comes forward with his chin up fighting and against this kid Robbie Peralta with 13 ko's he's probably gonna get dropped.. That's what I'm banking on anyways.. Peralta is pretty athletic and I expect him to be very light on his feet and evasive in this fight.

Let's see what sticks Pabst? Guida does sport a solid chin like you said and his wrestling hasn't abandoned him just yet either so you never know?

[Pabst]

2 wins in his past 6 fight, look at who he lost to. Benson, Gray (a fight he arguably won), Chad and Bermudez. On the other hand, Peralta is arguably 1-3 in his last four and hasn't fought nearly has good of a competition as Clay.

[JIBBBY]

2 wins in his past 6 fight, look at who he lost to. Benson, Gray (a fight he arguably won), Chad and Bermudez. On the other hand, Peralta is arguably 1-3 in his last four and hasn't fought nearly has good of a competition as Clay.

A few bad losses to very solid guys and I can't argue that.. Good points Pabst...

He did lose to Gray Maynard and in my opinion that's a very bad loss even if it was controversial.. I just don't think Guida can keep Peralta down and keep him there even if he does get him down and or tries to grind on him.. I've never seen him held down in fights and or kept on his back round after round, he's very quick and athletic and packs a good punch does Peralta...

At +200 I just thought it was worth a try anyways since Peralta is coming off a bad loss and in the past responds very well with KO wins.. Besides that he has never lost 2 fights in a row in 23 pro fights... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robbie-Peralta-21339

[mirinquads]

Peralta is getting absolutely wrecked in this fight.

[JIBBBY]

Peralta is getting absolutely wrecked in this fight.

Maybe Miri but like I said before let's see what sticks...

To expand a bit further - Peralta is in his physical prime for MMA at age 29 and has solid UFC experience under his belt going 6-2 while under the Zuffa umbrella.. He needs to win this fight just as bad as Guida.. I think Peralta's fighting style can give Guida fits if Guida can't ground and pound him round after round..

If it stays standing Guida will get stung... Peralta trains out here in California and I can't write him off just like that being that I'm a California guy myself...

[Unwritten Law]

That's why I think Guida/Peralta will go the distance. Clay has never been finished via TKO/KO. Robbie does present some vicious hands but Clay has taken tons of punishment throughout his career and just manages to make it through.

Speaking of Masvidal and Iaquinta, that one may also go to the judges. I haven't been as consistent selecting o/u's but when the odds are fairly even, the o/u may be a better play. Might just take the over instead of Iaquinta.

[PaperTrail07]

Maynard is not washed up lol....faced tough fighters

Looks that way Karma...


I'm jumping on Alexander Yakovlev at +120 now as he's facing another washed up fighter that's much like KOS in Gray Maynard.. Gray Maynard has been Ko'd in his last 3 fights and at age 35 I don't see him turning it around.. Alexander has been the more active fighter and is very hard to knock out as well..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gray-Maynard-15835

[shabang]

sooo torn between the masvidal and iaquinta fight..My heart says raging al takes this..

mendez will win.. I also really like julian pena..laying a lot of juice on her..

[PaperTrail07]

same SHA.....lots of skill on both sides...Raging Al is more hungry it seems

sooo torn between the masvidal and iaquinta fight..My heart says raging al takes this..

mendez will win.. I also really like julian pena..laying a lot of juice on her..

[bjpenn85]

Just think about it for a second JIBBY, guida has fought them all, pettis, dos anjos, maynard, benson etc, peralta would probably loose to them all. Even if he is downhill, which i also believe,I dont think there is anything presently that can prove that he is so far down the hill he should lose to peralta. Peralta has already shown, that he doesnt have any skill that could make him a top 5 or a contender, that separates him from the crowd . Guida developed to become a top 10 fighter primarily based on will and stamina. But he at least had a some qualities about him, like wrestling, like an extreme will to persevere . I dont see anything in peralta beyond a lucky strip of DNA that gave the man some vicious power. Its not enough to have power, if so where is drew mcfedries? That dude had some crazy penetrating power man o man.

The fight may end up by KO, then it def is peralta winning. If not, its probably Guida by dec,or sub. If i were you, i would take Peralta round 1 or TKO, not +200 for a man that has one chance to win...

[imadegen]

masdival baby!

[JIBBBY]

Maynard is not washed up lol....faced tough fighters

Faced via past tense is the key word Paper.. I just refuse to bet on someone age 35 that has been rudely KO'd in his last 3 fights.. It's got Koscheck syndrome written all over it.. Just my opinion.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gray-Maynard-15835

In regards to facing tough fighters Paper - Take a look at who Kos faced - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Koscheck-9418

When you get dropped like Maynard has in his last 3 fights that messes with your confidence and mojo simply said.. Doubt creeps in when that Octagon cage door closes... Being age 35 and PED free now (maybe?) doesn't help either... If not washed up yet GM is certainly flirting with it...

Granted the Russian lost 2 in a row himself but those 2 loses were by decision and that's a big difference..
http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alexander-Yakovlev-10846 He still can hang his head high and get back on it.. Those last 2 decision losses were against solid UFC fighters as well.... Needless to say he's never been KO'd in his MMA career either....

No one has mentioned the Russian Alexander having twice the pro fight experience as Maynard just on a side note.. 8 ko's on his resume as well...

[Unwritten Law]

This is a completely different Gray Maynard we've seen in the past. Not sure what's up but he just seems out of it mentally and his chin is shot. He is now also the underdog.

[JIBBBY]

That's why I think Guida/Peralta will go the distance. Clay has never been finished via TKO/KO. Robbie does present some vicious hands but Clay has taken tons of punishment throughout his career and just manages to make it through.

I remember Guida getting rocked many times in past fights and then going into wrestling mode to survive.. His long hair covered the damage though ... I believe Chad Mendes laid down the wood on Clay Guida's chin but he wasn't out completely like you said..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184

Clay Guida does have a solid chin though no doubt!!!!

[Hollafront]

I've personally been stinking it up in this forum.

We know.

[PaperTrail07]

TRUE --But this HAS TO BE win or go home for Maynard here.....I am thinking he comes in and gets the W...

[mirinquads]

No one has mentioned the Russian Alexander having twice the pro fight experience as Maynard just on a side note.. 8 ko's on his resume as well...

Jibbby stop. Fighting 10 russian mechanics doesn't compare to one Frankie Edgar fight.

[mirinquads]

We know.

[JIBBBY]

TRUE --But this HAS TO BE win or go home for Maynard here.....I am thinking he comes in and gets the W...

I'd actually be shocked if Maynard gets the win to be honest Paper.. I think it's almost a lock that Maynard gets dropped in this fight and is then sent packing into retirement...

Koscheck vs Maynard in Bellator in a future match up maybe???.. LOL..


Patiently waiting for the Yakovlev wins by KO PROP to come out myself.....