Future Underdog value

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  • firekillex
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-18-13
    • 6420

    #1
    Future Underdog value
    Just looking at some of the odds for future UFC cards and i see a lot of value on the main card underdogs


    Barao +125
    looked bad last fight after he got caught, i think this will be a different fight.. still a close on to call
    Gegard mousasi +270 ( beat souza before) is a top fighter, souza probably better not but at almost 3x money id bet on a top 5-7 level fighter anyday..
    Andrei Arlovski +245 has looked pretty bad lately but still has knockout power, and bigfoot can get dropped, anything can happen in a heavyweight fighter, if silva gets AA down or a big punch on AA hell be dead, but Arlovski still has technical boxing and big power
    Roy Nelson +140 he has a way better ground game then Mark hunt, if this stays standing up its Hunts fight, but if nelson fights smart he can definitely pull this one out with his experience
    Dustin Poirier +180 a really tough game fighter, great everywhere basically.. Conor Mcgregor has looked really good but he has a ton of hype behind him, he still hasnt got the top 5 level fight yet and this is the fight where well see what level he is at, ill go with the more ufc experienced and well rounded fighter at +180..
    Rick Story +205 A very skilled, experienced fighter, has a W over johnny hendricks. Hasnt really been looking great lately, but gunnar nelson has a ton of hype around him, and well see how he competes against a more top level fighter then is experienced and good everywhere.
    Fabricio Werdum +350 this line right now is just crazy to me... Cain is a beast dont get me wrong but this is heavyweight and Werdum has very improved striking and is one of the best heavyweights in Jits, 5 round fight anything could happen

    wouldve took vitor before he looked like a little boy... and id consider taking GIL over pettis but Pettis is one of my favourite fighters and i dont want to bet against him

    Basically all these underdogs i feel have some value, you dont even have to win half of these to make profit in the end
  • firekillex
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-18-13
    • 6420

    #2
    nobody showing love to barao or gegard mousasi at those odds??
    Comment
    • PunisherIND
      SBR MVP
      • 02-24-11
      • 4980

      #3
      With you on mousasi and poirer
      Comment
      • MD
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-31-12
        • 9728

        #4
        Not even Poirier would bet on Poirier against the Notorious. It's literally impossible that he wins.
        Comment
        • marzwoody
          SBR MVP
          • 01-03-14
          • 3902

          #5
          Im on mousasi are you joking? guyz a stud.
          Comment
          • MD
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-31-12
            • 9728

            #6
            Originally posted by marzwoody
            Im on mousasi are you joking? guyz a stud.
            And he trains with Gaberz Gaberzyan.
            Comment
            • Beelzebubzy
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 06-06-11
              • 6995

              #7
              JLau.
              Comment
              • PunisherIND
                SBR MVP
                • 02-24-11
                • 4980

                #8
                Originally posted by MD
                And he trains with Gaberz Gaberzyan.
                and his name is pronounced GayHard
                Comment
                • MD
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 01-31-12
                  • 9728

                  #9
                  Originally posted by PunisherIND
                  and his name is pronounced GayHard
                  Just a cheap rip-off of my boi Hard Gay.


                  (1:19, since Youtube apparently doesn't want to prefetch times for embedded videos)
                  Comment
                  • firekillex
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-18-13
                    • 6420

                    #10
                    not going to lie mcgregor is one of my favourite up and coming fighters but porier is definitely no slouch, its way more of an even fight then oddsmakers are making it out to be i think, guess well see in time


                    im thinking about locking in mousasi right now at +285, im not sure if the line will go up anymore
                    Comment
                    • Unwritten Law
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-31-13
                      • 2532

                      #11
                      Add DC/Gus vs Jones as well. Currently DC+140 and Gus previously was +200.

                      Odds are off with Mousasi, he shouldn't be that big of an underdog, was expecting more like a Pick'em here, so solid value there.

                      Barao +125, call it a fluke or whatever you want, but there will be a trilogy if he claims his title back. I see it happening.

                      Nick Diaz should get more respect and at +350, I'll gladly take my chances against A. Silva.

                      Agree with Werdum and the +360.
                      Comment
                      • GunShard
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 03-05-10
                        • 10027

                        #12
                        I'm still betting on Dillashaw and McGregor to win their fights.
                        Gunnar Nelson did expose some weakness in his previous fight, so I wouldn't be surprised if he lost to Story.
                        Comment
                        • Sacrelicious
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 11-29-12
                          • 5984

                          #13
                          Originally posted by firekillex
                          Just looking at some of the odds for future UFC cards and i see a lot of value on the main card underdogs


                          Barao +125
                          looked bad last fight after he got caught, i think this will be a different fight.. still a close on to call
                          Gegard mousasi +270 ( beat souza before) is a top fighter, souza probably better not but at almost 3x money id bet on a top 5-7 level fighter anyday..
                          Andrei Arlovski +245 has looked pretty bad lately but still has knockout power, and bigfoot can get dropped, anything can happen in a heavyweight fighter, if silva gets AA down or a big punch on AA hell be dead, but Arlovski still has technical boxing and big power
                          Roy Nelson +140 he has a way better ground game then Mark hunt, if this stays standing up its Hunts fight, but if nelson fights smart he can definitely pull this one out with his experience
                          Dustin Poirier +180 a really tough game fighter, great everywhere basically.. Conor Mcgregor has looked really good but he has a ton of hype behind him, he still hasnt got the top 5 level fight yet and this is the fight where well see what level he is at, ill go with the more ufc experienced and well rounded fighter at +180..
                          Rick Story +205 A very skilled, experienced fighter, has a W over johnny hendricks. Hasnt really been looking great lately, but gunnar nelson has a ton of hype around him, and well see how he competes against a more top level fighter then is experienced and good everywhere.
                          Fabricio Werdum +350 this line right now is just crazy to me... Cain is a beast dont get me wrong but this is heavyweight and Werdum has very improved striking and is one of the best heavyweights in Jits, 5 round fight anything could happen

                          wouldve took vitor before he looked like a little boy... and id consider taking GIL over pettis but Pettis is one of my favourite fighters and i dont want to bet against him

                          Basically all these underdogs i feel have some value, you dont even have to win half of these to make profit in the end
                          You are forgetting about Castillo +205
                          and Baszler +120
                          and Nijem +175
                          and Jackson +100
                          and Larkin +100
                          and Jorgenson +160
                          and Potts +170
                          and Birchak +100
                          and Carrizosa +100
                          and Rothwell +335
                          and Mitrione +110
                          and Lauzon +130
                          and Cariaso +900
                          and Blachowicz +170
                          and Corissani +365
                          and Wilkinson +350
                          and DC +150
                          and Diaz +365


                          Tons of live dogs.
                          Comment
                          • Wilbo86
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 01-22-14
                            • 753

                            #14
                            Most of them should get better as well. Not sure about Barao, Story or Nelson though.
                            Comment
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