My UFC 171 Picks

[Skel]

Here are my plays for tomorrow night. I've done well so far, including 23 units last weekend so I'm confident enough to bet a lot of my original bankroll here.

10 units on Lawler at +260 to win 26 units
3 units on Story at +140 to win 4.2 units
2 units on Hettes at +210 to win 4.2 units
6 units on Not Hendricks inside distance at -120 to win 5 units
5 units on Sanchez wins by 3 round decision at +295 to win 14.25 units
23 units on Sanchez/Jury over 2.5 rounds at -230 to win 10 units

Parlays:
Scoggins+Jury/Sanchez starts round 2+Not shields inside distance+Not Story inside distance 5 units to win 3.96 units
Not Jury inside distance+Not Shields inside distance+OSP/Krylov doesn't go to decision 5 units to win 4.39 units
Not Woodley by decision+Not Shields inside distance+Not Jury inside distance 5 units to win 3.97 units
Scoggins+Lombard 5 units to win 4.07 units

[Skel]

Ended up +11.39 units for the event. I'm actually disappointed as I thought Lawler deserved the nod, in which case I would have been up 47.39 units. I also made a couple of impulsive last-minute underdog plays on Story and Hettes (based largely on the weigh-ins) which I shouldn't have. Almost all the picks I put time into were good: my parlays all hit and my prop bets were excellent. I'm still new to this and I'm gonna learn from my mistakes here and come back stronger next time.

[MD]

Good job. If I could give you some criticism, it would be that I think you're potentially overbetting. That said, +11.39u is a pretty good night, nicely done.

Welcome to the forum, by the way.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Ended up +11.39 units for the event. I'm actually disappointed as I thought Lawler deserved the nod, in which case I would have been up 47.39 units. I also made a couple of impulsive last-minute underdog plays on Story and Hettes (based largely on the weigh-ins) which I shouldn't have. Almost all the picks I put time into were good: my parlays all hit and my prop bets were excellent. I'm still new to this and I'm gonna learn from my mistakes here and come back stronger next time.

If you increased your bank roll by +11.39 % then you had a good night Skel. If you're playing with $10,000.00 then you just made $1,139.00. Not bad. Not bad at all.

[Skel]

Good job. If I could give you some criticism, it would be that I think you're potentially overbetting. That said, +11.39u is a pretty good night, nicely done.

Welcome to the forum, by the way.

Thanks brother. I know I bet a lot of my initial investment but that's because I'm confident in my picks. I don't bet nearly as much in absolute terms as some on this site, though, as I'm just a college student. It would hurt a lot if I lost every play but that's very unlikely with the picks I make. I've experienced the regret of making great plays and barely making any profit because I was too timid with my wagers and that's not a good feeling either.

[MD]

Are you familiar with Kelly bet sizing? I would recommend it for you, or anyone for that matter.

[Skel]

Are you familiar with Kelly bet sizing? I would recommend it for you, or anyone for that matter.

I hadn't heard of it but I'm looking into it now. Thanks.

[Wilbo86]

Actual knowledge being shared on SBR...? Tis a strange day indeed

[Vaughany]

Kelly schmelly...just pick winnerz dawwwg