The Calculator's MMA Analysis

[Vaughany]

I have a 2 unit play on Siler straight @ +150. I believe there is value in Parke @ -200 or better. 2 units on Parke vs Santos Over 2.5 @ -200. 10 units on Brandao straight @ -320. 33 units Markes straight @ -590. 3.75 units Ferriera vs Dollaway Over 1.5 @ -185. 7.3 units Taisamov straight @ -265. 10.3 units Ferriera straight @ -210. Other 1 & 2 unit plays as well. Mostly Overs. Good Luck All!

Not enough chalk brah, ur slippin

Nah red shoes. It's just right. And yes I will be reminding you after it cashes.

Lol

[TheCalculator]

I don't have time to do a bunch of write ups. So I'll just do 1 of them.

Barboza versus Cowboy


Striking: They're both 2 the best kickers in the division. However I think Barboza kicks a bit harder, a little faster and as a little more variety. Cowboy does have an advantage with his hands. Overall I would give a slight edge to Barboza.

Wrestling: Cowboy. If he wants to use his wrestling he will have an advantage. However this isn't much of a factor cause most of the time he won't use it. I think Barboa has enough anti-grappling skills to keep it standing.

Cardio: Barboza. Cowboy does have a good cardio. But Barboza has a little bit more gas in his tank.

Weigh in: Barboza. Cowboy looked like shit yesterday. He lost muscle, looked flat and he looked drained.

Psychological edge: Barboza all day long. Cowboy fights amazingly well when he believes he is superior. When he faces somebody who really brings the fight to him without fear he seems to fall apart psychologically. I expect to see that today.

Overall: based on current circumstances I think Barboza would win 60-65% of the time.

Also I do believe there's good value on the UNDER. I will be surprised if it goes the distance. I think there would be a finish 55% to 60% of the time.

[Skel]

I don't have time to do a bunch of write ups. So I'll just do 1 of them.

Barboza versus Cowboy


Striking: They're both 2 the best kickers in the division. However I think Barboza kicks a bit harder, a little faster and as a little more variety. Cowboy does have an advantage with his hands. Overall I would give a slight edge to Barboza.

Wrestling: Cowboy. If he wants to use his wrestling he will have an advantage. However this isn't much of a factor cause most of the time he won't use it. I think Barboa has enough anti-grappling skills to keep it standing.

Cardio: Barboza. Cowboy does have a good cardio. But Barboza has a little bit more gas in his tank.

Weigh in: Barboza. Cowboy looked like shit yesterday. He lost muscle, looked flat and he looked drained.

Psychological edge: Barboza all day long. Cowboy fights amazingly well when he believes he is superior. When he faces somebody who really brings the fight to him without fear he seems to fall apart psychologically. I expect to see that today.

Overall: based on current circumstances I think Barboza would win 60-65% of the time.

Also I do believe there's good value on the UNDER. I will be surprised if it goes the distance. I think there would be a finish 55% to 60% of the time.

Barboza's TDD looked excellent in the Castillo fight, as did his toughness and submission defense. I think he's the hungrier guy here and will come out on top. This isn't an easy fight to predict, though.

[Sykes]

Barboza does be doing rounds with Edgar while Cerrone is 'training' on his snowmobile. I think he is a good bet and a good one to add to one of the other good favorites for a nice + odds bet.

[fitguy67]

how doew silva's face not look like ketchup

[fitguy67]

never seen someone eat so many HARD elbows & knees and still keep standing, and looking pretty

[fitguy67]

damn, never knew Silva had such a chin...made of cement

[fitguy67]

how is Silva still standing, even looking fresh...i've seen sanchez get beat up like that but looks like he went thru a meat grinder

[TheCalculator]

Best night of my life.

And I had an insane parlay that almost cashed.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/kojywa8btmerwug/Screenshot%202014-05-11%2000.10.19.png

I did a mistake and took some unnecessary risk with the Wineland fight (inside distance was almost the same as Wineland ITD). Same thing with Koch (ITD was the right play) and Costa should of been played straight up.

Would of 2Xed my bankroll if it would of hit.

Ah well...

[TheCalculator]

Thoughts on: Barao vs. Dillashaw

I think there's SLIGHT value on Dillashaw. GOOD value on Barao ITD. And good value on under 4.5.

First the safest bet:
I think this fight does NOT go past 4.5 round 70%-80% of the time.

Both of those guys could get the finish. Dillashaw has KO power plus subs and so does Barao.

Barao ITD:
Much better value than straight up. I think he would win ITD: 65% to 75% of the time.

Dillashaw: I think he could win 20% of the time.

I think the way to beat Barao is TD and beat him up. Barao is insanely elusive -- however with a good blend of striking he can possibly set up some TDs and either win by decision or get a submission.

[MD]

Barao by decision, Dillashaw straight for me.