UFC 94 Breaded
Win or lose, I will always remember UFC 94 as the event with no pink hamsters. Well, just one – Jake O’Brien – buried deep on the undercard. Does that count? No. So I’m left with a hamster-less pay-per-view with two of my most anticipated bouts of the year: GSP-Penn and Diaz-Guida. I say win or lose, but I really just mean win. I was undefeated on the last UFC with my wagers, and hoping that continues here.
Georges St-Pierre -175
BJ Penn +155
The rematch of the decade headlines the evening. As most know, it was St-Pierre (17-2-0) winning that first meeting in 2006 via split decision. There were many questions that remained, the main one being “How long until the rematch?” Well look no further MMA fans, tonight is your night.
Both come into this fight riding impressive win streaks. Penn (13-4-1) has disposed of Pulver (vengeful choke out), Stevenson (murderous choke out), and Sherk (straight beatdown). GSP has laid the smackdown on four straight: Koscheck (man vs. boy), Hughes (man vs. grandpa), Serra (vengeful whooping), and Fitch (any more questions?)
Both fighters come in on top of their game and at the peak of their careers. Penn’s Jiu-Jitsu, boxing and wrestling skills, combined with his amazing flexibility, have him primed to take the belt from the champ. BJ Penn is a whack job, no doubt. That’s a good trait to have in a fighter. GSP has been dominating with his well-rounded game as well. Given the talent level of both fighters, one might be inclined to wager on Penn for the value. I have one problem with that.
Penn has no respect for St-Pierre. He has been dogging him for some time. I realize that he has the chops to back up his nastiness, but why even go there? GSP is a champion, and conducts himself as one. Penn’s trash talking is going to come back to haunt him. The last guy to openly disrespect his upcoming opponent like this was Wanderlei Silva with “Rampage” Jackson. I was leaning towards GSP anyway. Penn’s behavior made my play even easier. Enjoy what could possibly be the fight of the year.
I love this picture
Lyoto Machida -270
Thiago Silva +230
Upset alert upset alert!! Rarely do you get two guys at this stage of their careers both undefeated. Identical 13-0-0 records clash and only one fighter shall remain unblemished. The UFC is high on Machida. He seems to get a lot of favorable coverage. He recently beat down Tito Ortiz like he was his little brother. That sounds great to the casual fan, but people who follow MMA know that Tito’s goose has been cooked for some time now.
Silva is a beast. He is a well-rounded talent in his own right, and I feel that he has as good a chance, if not better, to take this match. At +230, I’m wondering what I’m missing. Machida being pushed as the next big thing? What else could it be? I’m not scared. I’m also jumping on a prop wager for Silva to win the fight inside the three rounds at +426 at 5dimes.
Stephan Bonnar -165
Jon Jones +145
I’ve disliked Bonnar (14-4-0) ever since the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. I really have. My disdain has grown for this goofball every time he does something dopey. Whether it’s testing positive for veterinary horse steroids, or dubbing himself as the “American Psycho”, or listing his hero as Hugh Hefner, or describing his favorite technique as “the punch to the face”, or having a major role in what might be the worst movie ever filmed, it’s just all bad for this clown.
Jon Jones (7-0-0) is a quick, athletic exciting fighter. He is 10 years younger than Bonnar. He’s undefeated and he’s hungry. So I’m all over him, right? Wrong. Everything about this fight SCREAMS for me to jump all over Jones. I lose those fights all the time. Jones’ day is coming, but the more experienced Bonnar will be able to pull out this one, mere months before he begins his inevitable soft porn career.
Karo Parisyan -270
Dong Hyun Kim +230
The Armenian Cartel is in full swing as Parisyan (26-5-0) joins his cousin Manny Gamubryan on the UFC 94 card. Parisyan is no joke. His only UFC losses have come at the hands of GSP, Diego Sanchez and Thiago Alves. Dong Hyun Kim (11-0-1) is undefeated. To be honest with you, I could study styles and stats all night long, but for me, this fight comes down to this – the Armenian Cartel is far more impressive than the Asian Invasion in the UFC. I need to find some numbers on the records of Asian fighters. I know for a fact I make money betting against them, and I hope to do the same on this fight.
Vic Mackey doesn’t like Armenians, but I do tonight
OK, I admit, that was pretty weak reasoning. That’s why I am also betting on the fight to go the full three rounds at -215. In the UFC, Parisyan has had eight fights go to the judges, compared to just four early finishes. Kim is coming off a split decision victory over Matt Brown. He had a string of impressive KO’s while fighting in Japan, but the caliber of his opponents has been raised. The percentages favor a full three rounds, and this is my strong play for this fight.
Nate Diaz -120
Clay Guida +100
Will tonight be the night? Are you out there, sweet justice? Sadness thy name be Gamburyan, Assuncao, Robinson, Pellegrino and Neer. I have been rooting and betting (and losing) against the cerebral wonder known as Nate Diaz (10-2-0) since we first met on the 5th season of TUF. Is it more personal than professional? Of course it is! I can’t stand this guy! Stick bug Nate has a great game plan. He endures a bit of a beating, ends up on his back, where his opponent will think they have the upper hand. That is when Nate “What did he say?” Diaz goes to work. He is more impressive on his back than Jenna Jameson - Tito and I both agree. These guys just need to learn to stay out of his spider web-like leg locks. Enter Clay Guida.
In Guida I trust
Guida (24-6-0) is one of my favorite fighters. He is exciting puts on good shows in the Octagon. The last time he fought a fighter I didn’t like (Mac Danzig) I actually was talked into betting against him. That didn’t work out well in my favor. Guida dominated Danzig and Bread learned a lesson. Never bet against one of your favorite fighters against a guy you can’t stand. If anything, just leave it alone. On this night, I will make back that loss and more. Because tonight is the night that it finally happens.
I will leave you with this thought-provoking quote from Mr. Nate Diaz, contemplating his ensuing battle with Mr. Clay Guida. Enjoy.
“He better put it on me if he wants to win he better…you know…he better go hard and, and finish hard and go hard if he want to do anything cause I got that pace too!”
God bless you Nate Diaz.
There are going to be some drunk sons a' bitches at that bar.
