UFC heavyweights

MD · 04-22-13, 04:29 PM

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**TheCrow** · 04-25-13, 11:01 PM

Not nelson inside the distance is my official bet for this fight. I am very confident in this bet enough not to worry about the weigh ins. kongo will utilize his long reach advantage coming off the long layoff to get his injured shoulder to 100%. Kongo's fight iq should be smart enough to keep this standing. During the interview with ariel helwani, he had mentioned how he will be the one in control of where the fight happens and being able to take roy nelson down but i'm banking on him being smart enough not to go this route. I do however see him utilizing knees in the clinch similiar to what fabricio werdum did vs roy nelson. There's no doubt in my mind that kongo will try this. If kongo can clinch with travis browne then i most certainly feel that he can have success with roy nelson in the clinch, especially being taller by 4 inches.

cheick kongo is a very bad matchup for nelson in my opinion, i actually feel that kongo has a shot at winning this fight but there's no way that he will be dumb enough to get susceptible to the roy nelson right hand. With pat barry, kongo had to worry most about kicks but not with roy nelson. A kickboxer with a 9 inch reach advantage has the advantage over a shorter guy with no kicks, and no wrestling takedowns. Kongo will be quicker and he will be smart enough not to go to the ground with roy nelson. Even if he can get top position, he keeps this fight standing. Don't forget that nelson has even been knocked out before by andrei arlovski, but i won't be greedy.

**Vaughany** · 04-26-13, 02:49 AM

Why would it not be smart to put Nelson on his back. He may be a blackbelt, but he's going to struggle to offer any threat there, do you seriously see Nelson locking on a triangle off his back or something?

**PunisherIND** · 04-26-13, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Why would it not be smart to put Nelson on his back. He may be a blackbelt, but he's going to struggle to offer any threat there, do you seriously see Nelson locking on a triangle off his back or something?

triangle or gogoplata maybe.

**Beelzebubzy** · 04-26-13, 08:16 AM

The crow is brad Ross Gellar
that is my pick

**pouyasophy** · 04-26-13, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

The crow is brad Ross Gellar
that is my pick

What is the girl in ur avatar from again?

**Vaughany** · 04-26-13, 09:41 AM

It's one of many fluzzies that Gaberz has nailed thanksz to his notoriety from the LA comedy scene

**Beelzebubzy** · 04-26-13, 10:11 AM

Malin Ackerman
sex scene in Heartbreak Kid
also in The watchmen

**Beelzebubzy** · 04-26-13, 10:12 AM

I'm a fan on Elzabeth Banks too

**Crassus** · 04-26-13, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Why would it not be smart to put Nelson on his back. He may be a blackbelt, but he's going to struggle to offer any threat there, do you seriously see Nelson locking on a triangle off his back or something?

More likely he pulls a sweep, from there it's not a good time for Kongo.

**Vaughany** · 04-26-13, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

More likely he pulls a sweep, from there it's not a good time for Kongo.

I dont see his fat ass sweeping somebody with the base that a huge guy like Kongo has.

**Crassus** · 04-26-13, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I dont see his fat ass sweeping somebody with the base that a huge guy like Kongo has.

I don't recall Kongo having particularly great top game

**gabe** · 04-26-13, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

I don't recall Kongo having particularly great top game

clearly you've never fukd him

**TheCrow** · 04-26-13, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Why would it not be smart to put Nelson on his back. He may be a blackbelt, but he's going to struggle to offer any threat there, do you seriously see Nelson locking on a triangle off his back or something?

because kongo is not versed enough in jiu jitsu defense, yes he's got the greco roman wrestling background but he'll probably only use a takedown to try and "steal" a round if it's towards the end. Im not a coach but i have got to believe i would be telling kongo to stay within kickboxing range of roy nelson, utilize the cardio, and it's gravy if you can get a big shot to land. Roy nelson might not gas out in terms of the cardio situation but i don't think he'll have the power he needs come say the 3rd round.

i feel that kongo can land a big shot just like he did with cain at ufc 99. it might not stop roy nelson but the big gamble here is that kongo is not injured. last time he fought was july 2012, he's not even with a good training camp. How hard has cheick kongo trained for this fight? i don't think he needed to train that hard for this fight, he just really needed the let his injuries heal.

**Vaughany** · 04-26-13, 02:50 PM

KOngo said he's 100% for this fight in interview with Helwani

**TheCrow** · 04-26-13, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

KOngo said he's 100% for this fight in interview with Helwani

exactly, right after i saw that interview, i knew i was going to bet this without worrying about the weigh ins. A lot of fighters will lie but i don't think he's lying when it's been 10 months since his last fight. Kongo can fight a very safe fight, making sure he doesn't get stopped because he has the tools to do so in this match.

**mirinquads** · 04-26-13, 08:30 PM

Why would you bet Not Nelson ITD at like evenish, when you believe Kongo got the advantage in the fight? You really think Nelson is going to get a decision over Congo with the reach advantage and size advantage? If Kongo where to lose, it would likely be a counter cross over his jab, where he likes to keep his chin up in the air and not cover his chin with the shoulder. This is Nelsons most powerful punch and he is good at covering distance, and Kongo is orthodox = bad news. This is his most likely way to victory. Im hoping Kongo is aware of this, and just grinds Nelson on the cage and kicks him in the legs. Dont see how Nelson sweeps him either if he gets it on the ground.

**TheCrow** · 04-26-13, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Why would you bet Not Nelson ITD at like evenish, when you believe Kongo got the advantage in the fight? You really think Nelson is going to get a decision over Congo with the reach advantage and size advantage? If Kongo where to lose, it would likely be a counter cross over his jab, where he likes to keep his chin up in the air and not cover his chin with the shoulder. This is Nelsons most powerful punch and he is good at covering distance, and Kongo is orthodox = bad news. This is his most likely way to victory. Im hoping Kongo is aware of this, and just grinds Nelson on the cage and kicks him in the legs. Dont see how Nelson sweeps him either if he gets it on the ground.

i'm on the river with the feel that kongo plays a safe fight with the possibility this goes to a judges decision. I like kongo in the clinch because roy nelson is dumb enough to stay in there for an extended period of time unlike mark hunt. This evenish bet is not that easy to make with kongo coming off a ko loss 2 fights ago to mark hunt who has a similiar stature and reach of roy nelson. But that's why it's a bet and i'm going against that outcome.

it has looked so easy to a lot of people that that kongo gets stopped, NOT nelson inside distance is now +133. If the odds went the other way around i'd be a little worried for my own personal bet despite getting a better line. In other words i don't mind betting too early when it turns out that i should have bet later to get a better line although i might put another unit just before the fight starts. I do find comfort going against what the public is doing but if you think nelson is going to finish, it will probably be in the first round at +225 odds. 4 out of nelson's last 5 finishes have come in the first round with the lone exception being that of to crop cop in the 3rd.

**mirinquads** · 04-27-13, 10:42 AM

Well that was a lot of words, but I still dont see how youd play that if you can get kongo at +210~ and more on him by Dec.

**Beelzebubzy** · 04-27-13, 10:55 AM

**Beelzebubzy** · 04-27-13, 10:56 AM