Welterweight Madness

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 02:17 AM

I suspect GSP to open at about -400, Hendricks at -220, Rory at -180. Though there is potential for Rory to open a bit higher, in any case, the higher the better. These 3 are going to penetrating annihilate this card.

MD · 12-16-12, 09:59 AM

The Hendricks/Ellenberger fight is irritating for two reasons: 1) Ellenberger gets KO'd by Kampmann -> Kampmann gets KO'd by Hendricks -> Hendricks vs Ellenberger? 2) For how undeserving he is of this fight, Ellenberger has a legitimate chance of pulling out the upset.

**BIGDAY** · 12-16-12, 10:16 AM

Agreed. Ellenberger actually presents problems for Hendricks.

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 10:25 AM

Could not agree more

GSP will embarrass Diaz for 5 rounds
Rory unanimous decision
Hendricks KO

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 11:29 AM

Hendricks is really getting ****** over here big time. Which is a shame, because he seems like a legitimately nice guy, and is absolutely deserving of the title shot.

That being said if you have listened to his interviews since KOing Kampmann, all he has done is whine and bitch. Can't be scoring him many points in the good graces of DW.

Agreed that of the 3, Ellenberger/Hendricks has the biggest chance of an upset, but depending on the line I'm still willing to throw down on Hendricks.

Contemplating a 3 month mega parlay on the side once the lines for this card come up...

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Hendricks is really getting ****** over here big time. Which is a shame, because he seems like a legitimately nice guy, and is absolutely deserving of the title shot.

That being said if you have listened to his interviews since KOing Kampmann, all he has done is whine and bitch. Can't be scoring him many points in the good graces of DW.

Agreed that of the 3, Ellenberger/Hendricks has the biggest chance of an upset, but depending on the line I'm still willing to throw down on Hendricks.

Contemplating a 3 month mega parlay on the side once the lines for this card come up...

No point parlaying these plays unless you feel the odds will change against you and you want to lock them in early. Otherwise you are just tying up money for no reason when you can simply reinvest your winnings shortly before each event.

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 11:38 AM

I was referring to more of a half unit invested on five or six picks in addition to my regular plays.

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 11:43 AM

Hey up to you mate, just thinking you might be able to wait for the best odds and shop around a little on each rather than locking plays in on one book at one time and potentially losing some value.

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 11:52 AM

Hey speaking of line shopping, how are you liking Paddy? I'm contemplating opening an account there after I open one at Pinnacle, that will give me a total of 4 books to work with.

MD · 12-16-12, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Hey speaking of line shopping, how are you liking Paddy? I'm contemplating opening an account there after I open one at Pinnacle, that will give me a total of 4 books to work with.

Quick to limit winners, terrible lines, but sometimes they release clearly incorrect lines that are easy to profit off of, especially when they're openers. For example, Mike Swick +150 and Erick Silva by KO, which I got at +400, but I believe opened at +550.

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 11:59 AM

Honestly I like it.

It's super easy to use and you can deposit instantly and withdraw to your bank account in a day or 2 without any fees, charges, ID etc. They randomly post lines for fights which are months away, sometimes not even particularly big fights, and the odds for these are often awesome.

They also generally have bets on KO/Sub/Fight of the night for numbered UFC events.

They usually have a 'double chance bet' option. For example to win by KO or sub, or KO or points etc. It's great if a striker is taking on a BJJ expert- he's probably not getting the sub, but betting on KO or points is better odds than playing straight.

I opened a pinnacle account and use this almost exclusively now as the lines for the bets I want to make are generally slightly better, especially near fight time, (although JDS is still better at Paddy). Pinnacle doesn't allow MMA parlays so I use Paddy for those.

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 12:02 PM

Probably warrants at least a small investment then, thanks.

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Probably warrants at least a small investment then, thanks.

They'll match your first bet up to something like £50 if you're a new customer. Might as well open an account and throw £50 on JDS, no brainer since they also have the best odds for JDS currently I believe.

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 12:10 PM

Bodog did something similar when I opened there as well, just threw it down as extra dough on Bendo.

I'll scope it out this week and get it set up.

**gabe** · 12-16-12, 01:54 PM

If you don't think Diaz can submit (and even KO) GSP then you's slippin'

GSP bess beware what he wishes for, ynawmsayn?

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 02:01 PM

There's a chance of submission, but Georges will be in control of where the fight takes place- I personally feel KO is completely out of the question.

Diaz has nothing for GSP, I actually think it's going to be funny.

**gabe** · 12-16-12, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by ShotgunRua

There's a chance of submission, but Georges will be in control of where the fight takes place- I personally feel KO is completely out of the question.

Diaz has nothing for GSP, I actually think it's going to be funny.

Diaz will probably lose, but he'll do better than Condit did.

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 02:36 PM

Condit actually managed to put up a hell of a lot of resistance from his guard, and was throwing up non stop submission attempts. In addition, I also gave him the 3rd round due to the head kick.

By contrast, Nick Diaz will have nothing to offer GSP. Its going to be a clinic, and an embarassing one at that. It will be extremely funny to watch him get picked apart for twenty five minutes.

**PunisherIND** · 12-16-12, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by MD

The Hendricks/Ellenberger fight is irritating for two reasons: 1) Ellenberger gets KO'd by Kampmann -> Kampmann gets KO'd by Hendricks -> Hendricks vs Ellenberger? 2) For how undeserving he is of this fight, Ellenberger has a legitimate chance of pulling out the upset.

speaking of undeserving, diaz is probably more undeserving. lose to condit + get suspended = title shot?

**Vaughany** · 12-16-12, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

speaking of undeserving, diaz is probably more undeserving. lose to condit + get suspended = title shot?

yeah almost as bad as Sonnen gettin a title shot....at least UFC are being consistent about it!

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

speaking of undeserving, diaz is probably more undeserving. lose to condit + get suspended = title shot?

Yeah I really don't know what this guy has accomplished to justify this title shot. Champion in a smaller organisation? Great, can't wait for Tom Kong Watson Vs Anderson Silva. Diaz was lucky to get a number 1 contender fight, and even if he'd won that he was unable to control his drug issues so it would still have been a NC.

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yeah almost as bad as Sonnen gettin a title shot....at least UFC are being consistent about it!

Ha ha Yeah......

Next LHW title shot- Sonnen (2 straight losses)
Next WW title shot- Diaz (lost last fight)
Next FW title shot- Edgar (2 straight losses)

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 03:07 PM

You could almost make an argument for Edgar getting the title shot, but I dont know what the hell the UFC is doing with thier title shots.

**ShotgunRua** · 12-16-12, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

You could almost make an argument for Edgar getting the title shot, but I dont know what the hell the UFC is doing with thier title shots.

Yeah, you can argue that Edgar is pretty much evenly matched with the current LW champ based on their 2 recent fights. He's definitely the least ridiculous of the 3.

MD · 12-16-12, 03:22 PM

The problem with the Edgar title shot is, while he does definitely deserve it, he has lost his last two fights. Were he to lose this fight, and then lose his return match, he'd be on a four-fight losing streak. How do you cut a former champion and company man for losing his first fight after losing to the champion, and how do you not cut a fighter for losing four straight fights? We don't need any more Dan Hardy's.

**Broxbomber** · 12-16-12, 05:47 PM

Welterweight Picture

GSP will dominate Diaz with his GNP. It is a clear path for victory that Diaz won't be able to do a thing about.

I expect Rory to beat Condit, but it will be competitive. Rory won't blow his load and gas this time.

Hendricks will beat Ellenberger as his chin has been broken and he won't have the endurance / gas to last.

From there GSP will move up to middleweight permanently and fight Anderson Silva. This will also solve the issue of GSP vs Rory. Rory will fight for the vacant title against Hendricks and everyone will be happy.

**Sacrelicious** · 12-16-12, 06:11 PM

And everyone will live happily ever after.

The end.

**Broxbomber** · 12-16-12, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

And everyone will live happily ever after.

The end.

Its all about making $$$. Dana would be happy because:

1. UFC makes $$ on GSP vs Diaz (major PPV match up and easy to hype).
2. UFC Makes huge $$ on Silva vs GSP fight.
3. UFC gets fresh new match ups for GSP which = more $$$
4. UFC gets fresh new match ups for Welterweight Division and a new star with winner of Rory vs Hendricks.