Penn +230

[Vaughany]

It's been pretty obvious for a while now that Shogun is the most inconsistent fighter on the planet. Giving a bad performance doesn't increase his odds of having a bad performance in his next fight. Remember the second Coleman fight? People said he was past it after that fight, and that was basically a mirror of the Vera fight, in terms of context and ending. Same with the first Griffin fight. I assumed everyone knew this.

ha only just read this after my post above saying pretty much same thing

[Rubber Guard]

People were saying the same thing when he fought Machida though...."Oh didnt you see the Griffin and Coleman fights...this isnt the same guy that was tearing it up in Pride....Machida is going to pick him apart easily"

This. I mean he didn't look good vs. Vera...or that good and he is washed up. After he destroyed Forrest and Machida he was "back" and dangerous. And Hungry. People hang on to the last fight they saw.

That isn't saying Shogun is still a stud. He is just inconstant I think almost +200 is a good spot to see if Shogun has a good outing.

[bogbat]

Rory isnt as much of a threat with double-leg and single-leg takedowns as a GSP, he will probably look to do same as he did against Diaz and just body lock and throw/suplex BJ around! Probably for MacDonald is that these kind of takedowns make it easier for an opponent to bounce right back up or at least get to their knees like Diaz kept doing. It doesnt automatically lead to a top position in guard unlike a single leg or double so this could aid BJ in getting back to his feet who has amazing balance, although obviously Rory would still be showing "octagon control" and looking good in judges eyes.

This logic infuriates me, if Rory takes down BJ but he springs right back up, according to the official rules this would be an example of BJ dictating octagon control because he is keeping the fight where he wants it. However, depending on specific take-down, it still may be worth something because the take-down itself can do damage. Will MMA judges ever become more reliable?

[DirtyX]

Rory Mac over BJ Penn - This fight is one of the easiest to call all year imo, well maybe the easiest fight to call since Penn vs Nick Diaz. Rory is going to smash here, I predict an absolute streamrolling by the Canadian. I think a lot of people are over looking BJ's gas tank, or lack thereof. If he can't catch Rory in the first three minutes, he gases. As soon as Rory is in top control, reigning down elbows, Penn will give up mentally, and if he survives into the second round, he will have gassed, blowing his load in the first trying to get the KO. This fight will not be competetive at all imo. It will be a one sided beat down by the Canadian. Anyone who is betting on BJ should be playing ITD. No way BJ win a decision here. I'll say TKO by Rory Mac via Elbows in round 2.

Gustafson over Shogun - I agree with what others have said about Shogun in some people's minds, as still being this 22 year old Shogun from the Pride days. The sport has evolved so much since those days (fighters improving all around), and Shogun has been through some real wars since those days. Gustafson is fresh, has the reach advantage, and is going to put on a stand up clinic here me thinks. I don't really like Gustafson any higher odds than -200, but he pulls off an easy UD here, possibly a KO if he catches Shogun standing. Again this fight won't be close or competitive at all imo. UD 30-27.

Diaz over Bendo - This is prob a no play for me. Obviously I think, correction I hope Diaz wins, but that is what my heart is telling me, not my brain. I am biased here, so I can't really make an accurate guess without clouding my judgement... But, at the current odds, I'd have to say the value is on Bendo. If he fights smart which I expect him to do after his last performance, using his kicks and wrestling, he should win. I just can't bet against Diaz. I am a huge fan for one, the kid is improving every fight, and looks unstoppable. No play for me here boys, but if I had to lay $ at the current odds, it would be on Bendo. I will prob play fight goes the distance depending on the odds.

Siver over Phan - Waiting for odds to come out, so I won't speculate too much, but Siver is better everywhere me thinks.

[Digo]

I dont know how anybody can say Shogun has no chance when Gustaffsson keeps his hands by his waste 90% of the time. Thiago Silva caught him late in their fight and he is a slow plodder who'd just come back from injury. Shogun has caught guys like Chuck and Machida through uncoiling and exploding forward and catching them unaware as they move forward. If Shogun can catch an elusive fighter like Machida then I dont see why he can't catch Gustaffsson. It's nice to see guys using different styles and emulating their Alliance figurehead Cruz's style of constant movement/angles with hands low but it is easier for him to get away with it because he's fighting small guys who don't offer as much of a one-punch knockout threat. I can't help but think eventually somebody like Gustaf who is fighting big guys with legit power is gonna get caught out with that style. You could argue that we've already seen it happen to Travis Browne (although obviously the injury played a big part in him getting finished). I do believe the line is about right at this point just because of the whole "new breed" vs "old breed" aspect and the questions about Shogun's cardio and desire to keep fighting and trying to improve and desire/ability to keep taking punishment after the wars he's had. The Vera fight of course is very concerning as he just didnt look that good.

I agree with you but i think the only way Shogun can win this fight is by tko/ko, there is no point to bet Shogun ML.

[rocky16]

Rory Mac over BJ Penn - This fight is one of the easiest to call all year imo, well maybe the easiest fight to call since Penn vs Nick Diaz. Rory is going to smash here, I predict an absolute streamrolling by the Canadian. I think a lot of people are over looking BJ's gas tank, or lack thereof. If he can't catch Rory in the first three minutes, he gases. As soon as Rory is in top control, reigning down elbows, Penn will give up mentally, and if he survives into the second round, he will have gassed, blowing his load in the first trying to get the KO. This fight will not be competetive at all imo. It will be a one sided beat down by the Canadian. Anyone who is betting on BJ should be playing ITD. No way BJ win a decision here. I'll say TKO by Rory Mac via Elbows in round 2.

Gustafson over Shogun - I agree with what others have said about Shogun in some people's minds, as still being this 22 year old Shogun from the Pride days. The sport has evolved so much since those days (fighters improving all around), and Shogun has been through some real wars since those days. Gustafson is fresh, has the reach advantage, and is going to put on a stand up clinic here me thinks. I don't really like Gustafson any higher odds than -200, but he pulls off an easy UD here, possibly a KO if he catches Shogun standing. Again this fight won't be close or competitive at all imo. UD 30-27.

Diaz over Bendo - This is prob a no play for me. Obviously I think, correction I hope Diaz wins, but that is what my heart is telling me, not my brain. I am biased here, so I can't really make an accurate guess without clouding my judgement... But, at the current odds, I'd have to say the value is on Bendo. If he fights smart which I expect him to do after his last performance, using his kicks and wrestling, he should win. I just can't bet against Diaz. I am a huge fan for one, the kid is improving every fight, and looks unstoppable. No play for me here boys, but if I had to lay $ at the current odds, it would be on Bendo. I will prob play fight goes the distance depending on the odds.

Siver over Phan - Waiting for odds to come out, so I won't speculate too much, but Siver is better everywhere me thinks.

Penn can easily win a decision. He's a 1st round monster. He wins the 1st IMO or even finishes in the first. He'll start to gas towards the end of the 2nd but he could easily take that round too. The 3rd will be BJ trying to survive and he will. This fight could easily be damn close on the cards.

I'm playing the dogs on this card. I don't see the value on Gus and Rory at all. Taking Diaz too.

[DirtyX]

Penn can easily win a decision. He's a 1st round monster. He wins the 1st IMO or even finishes in the first. He'll start to gas towards the end of the 2nd but he could easily take that round too. The 3rd will be BJ trying to survive and he will. This fight could easily be damn close on the cards.

I'm playing the dogs on this card. I don't see the value on Gus and Rory at all. Taking Diaz too.

I see Value in Shogun at +200ish... I can't knock anyone for playing that. With Shogun, I just think it's a situation of out with the old and in with the new. Shogun has been through too many wars whereas Gustafson is fresh, almost green. I am banking on his age and ever improving standup to carry him through here.

Diaz I see value in but Bendo has so many paths to victory imo.. I don't know if I can pull the trigger.

Regarding BJ, we are just going to have to agree to disagree because I think Rory is going to absolutely embarrass Penn, even a so called "motivated" Penn in that Cage next Saturday. Seriously. But that is just me.

[Sacrelicious]

Agreed on BJ. The fact that we have to sit and attempt to discern whether or not BJ Penn is going to be "motivated" enough to actually put up a fight given his dysmal showing in the last couple years is reason enough not to bet on him against someone as good as Rory.

[dodge71]

No question in my mind Rory will destroy bj.. I am betting this heavy.. also like the under 2.5 +135 currently at Pinny

[rocky16]

I see Value in Shogun at +200ish... I can't knock anyone for playing that. With Shogun, I just think it's a situation of out with the old and in with the new. Shogun has been through too many wars whereas Gustafson is fresh, almost green. I am banking on his age and ever improving standup to carry him through here.

Diaz I see value in but Bendo has so many paths to victory imo.. I don't know if I can pull the trigger.

Regarding BJ, we are just going to have to agree to disagree because I think Rory is going to absolutely embarrass Penn, even a so called "motivated" Penn in that Cage next Saturday. Seriously. But that is just me.

I agree with your thoughts on the Gus-Shogun fight. 1 thing I'll say about Gus is he tends to leave his hands down. You don't want to do that against a guy like Shogun.

On the Diaz fight, I actually think Diaz has more paths to victory. He can wear down benson with his high volume striking and he can most def sub Benson. I know Benson is damn near impossible to sub but Nate is a guy that can. Whether its a triangle from bottom or a crushing guillotine. On the other hand I think there is no way in hell Benson wins by TKO or sub. I just cannot wrap my head around that. If I was playing Benson I would just play him by Decision prop.

I think people are overlooking Penn. His last two fights he fought Diaz, who I consider a top 4 or 5 WW in the world, beat him in the 1st round, gassed and got beaten up in the last two rounds. He fought Fitch, who is still one of the top WW's in the world to a draw. Having said that, its more about the stylistic matchup. Penn has way better boxing than Rory. Rory was getting tagged by Che Mills in their fight. Penn will box Rory's ears off. He is not taking Penn down in the first round. Its just not happening. So Rory will have to avoid getting rocked in round 1. Rory will have to get Penn tired in round two, then work for takedowns and ground and pound.

Rory can def win the last two rounds and win a decision but I think people are nuts to think he steamrolls Penn.

[stefan084]

I agree with your thoughts on the Gus-Shogun fight. 1 thing I'll say about Gus is he tends to leave his hands down. You don't want to do that against a guy like Shogun.

On the Diaz fight, I actually think Diaz has more paths to victory. He can wear down benson with his high volume striking and he can most def sub Benson. I know Benson is damn near impossible to sub but Nate is a guy that can. Whether its a triangle from bottom or a crushing guillotine. On the other hand I think there is no way in hell Benson wins by TKO or sub. I just cannot wrap my head around that. If I was playing Benson I would just play him by Decision prop.

I think people are overlooking Penn. His last two fights he fought Diaz, who I consider a top 4 or 5 WW in the world, beat him in the 1st round, gassed and got beaten up in the last two rounds. He fought Fitch, who is still one of the top WW's in the world to a draw. Having said that, its more about the stylistic matchup. Penn has way better boxing than Rory. Rory was getting tagged by Che Mills in their fight. Penn will box Rory's ears off. He is not taking Penn down in the first round. Its just not happening. So Rory will have to avoid getting rocked in round 1. Rory will have to get Penn tired in round two, then work for takedowns and ground and pound.

Rory can def win the last two rounds and win a decision but I think people are nuts to think he steamrolls Penn.

agree about diaz and penn--i know benson has tough sub d but if nate puts his high elbow guillotine on him that's a rap for anyone-especially w/ nates long limbs. i agree that bj has superior stand up but what about rorys 6" reach advantage? another kind of strange factor this time is that bj looks physically stronger and actually pretty fit this time. i have an overwhelming hunch that bj will go for the takedown in rd 1 sim. to the fitch fight and i think there is a good chance he takes rd 1,however if he doesn't finish rory(which will be tough) does he gas out again in 2 and 3? i've been a penn fan for a long time and learned never to bet him for or against

[rocky16]

agree about diaz and penn--i know benson has tough sub d but if nate puts his high elbow guillotine on him that's a rap for anyone-especially w/ nates long limbs. i agree that bj has superior stand up but what about rorys 6" reach advantage? another kind of strange factor this time is that bj looks physically stronger and actually pretty fit this time. i have an overwhelming hunch that bj will go for the takedown in rd 1 sim. to the fitch fight and i think there is a good chance he takes rd 1,however if he doesn't finish rory(which will be tough) does he gas out again in 2 and 3? i've been a penn fan for a long time and learned never to bet him for or against

Reach could play a factor but Penn has outboxed guys with larger reach than him before. He outboxed GSP who I believe also had a 6 inch reach advantage. He outboxed guys like Florian and was outboxing Diaz in the 1st round prior to gassing. Rory is green in this aspect of MMA. Its something Penn could take advantage of. It would also not shock me if Penn looked to take Rory down and test his BJJ. As you said he did it to Fitch and was able to take Fitch's back and get hooks in. Fitch is a top notch grappler and was able to work himself out of it but could Rory do the same? If Penn gets him in the same situation I kind of doubt Rory is not getting RNC'd. At what point in round 2 will Penn gas? Or will he gas at all? We've seen him go 5 rounds no problem at 155 but he was in fantastic shape against guys like Florian and Sanchez and even in the 1st Edgar fight. This fight will simply come down to what kind of shape Penn is in. If he's in great shape he can easily take 2 rounds or even finish Rory, if he's not in good shape he probably gasses in the 2nd and gets ground and pounded in the last two rounds. I personally think there is value in Penn at +240 and threw .75 units on it. I'm a huge Rory fan, but at -300 I just don't see the value in it, especially against a guy with heavy hands, an iron jaw, great takedown defense, and world class jitz.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I think Penn will outbox Rory in the first round but somewhere along the line Penn is going to get bulldozed through and once penn gets beat up he quits

Diaz i think can easily outbox Benson henderson, I think Benson will be using a lot of tae kwon do in this fight moving around and mixing up strikes from a distant trying to frustate Diaz by moving around the fight rather than directly fighting but I think eventually something will happen and Diaz will win.

Shogun vs Gustafson, Personally no offense but I think Gustafson has been hyped up too much, I think he's overrated, I think the fight will come down to which shogun shows up, the shogun who fought machida/chuck or the shogun who fought jones/griffin. One was super motivated quick and to the point while the other one was lacking focus, looked sloppy and disorganized.

Personally I think Shogun is a better talent than Gustafson even if Gustafson wins there is 0 percent chance he beats Jones