In terms of this matchup, Ellenberger doesn't strike me as the type that would likely win by decision over Hieron. Jay is a good wrestler with good BJJ. Ellenberger isn't too likely to have much of an advantage anywhere to take this by decision IMO. His decision wins in the UFC were matchups against BJJ guys where he was able to reverse-wrestle close decisions on his feet, although he was not very impressive in either. He's either gonna lay Hieron out with his dynamite power or he could lose in a number of manners. That's why I'm really liking Ellenberger NOT by decision in parlays. Certainly, Ellenberger inside the distance is good too, but I could see Hieron winning. Realistically, Ellenberger's skillset is limited.
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Don't be so sure
It's a 3 round fight, it will likely go to a decision, both guys are evenly matchedComment -
If it goes 3, wouldn't you favor Hieron, who has the better boxing and likely isn't getting lay and prayed by the limited top game of Jake? Ellenberger's advantage in pretty much every fight is power, not technique. He also has cardio issues.
Hieron also doesn't have the greatest chin. Brent Weedman almost stopped him standing. Not seeing him surviving the 3 if Jake does well enough to theoretically win a decision.Comment -
The last time they fought was in 2006 Heiron won the 3 round decision, it's been 6 years now. I don't know how much each fighter has improved but I remember back then Heiron was on a tear through the IFL. I know that Ellenberger likes to come out hard in the first round, he just throws everything into his punches and by the end of the 1st / half way through the 2nd he loses all his gas. Too close to call IMO it's a no play for meComment -
Jake should be able to get the T/KO. Heiron has never had a good chin and Jake has big power. Jay has looked HORRIBLE recently, aside from his good showing vs Askren. His last fight on HDNet was embarrassing, even though he got a gift win via ref stopping the fight for no reason.
That said, Jake is coming off a KO loss and may fight conservatively. He's never been KO'd before, so you never know how a fighter will perform in their next fight. Not to mention his cardio issues. If he doesn't get the KO within 1.5-2 rounds, it'll liekly be a decision.
Still, "not Ellenberger by decision" seems like a solid play to me if line isn't heavy on the chalk.Comment -
Well, someone liked it, since the line went down big. Not woth it anymore.
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Fri 10/5 1111 Ellenberger wins by 3 round decision +130 9:00PM 1112 Not Ellenberger by 3 round decision -170 Ellenberger wins by 3 round decision has great value. Ellenberger wins inside distance +156 is the pick to make. Not Ellenberger by 3 round decision, bad play.Comment -
I don't really see Hieron winning this fight. Ellenberger will probably stop him. But I wouldn't be shocked if he won a decision.
If you like Hieron why not just bet him?Comment -
Ellenberger's striking really isnt that amazing. Obviously he's very dangerous in first half of fight, but at times he relies on just the big over hand and doesnt throw many combinations. Since working with Cordeiro his overall striking game has improved considerably though...he throws more leg kicks and especially knees now (obviously more muay-thai style due to Cordeiro's influence). BUt if Hieron can survive early onslaught he may be able to steal a round and at least make it to a decision.Comment -
I think this is exactly what happens. Ellenberg will probably fight conservatively, when he actually should be fighting like he normally does. Knocking poeple the penetrate out in the first round. If he choose to pace himself, hieron may actually pick him apart on the feet and win a decision. Hieron moves a lot, and that may sway the judges in the later rounds, especially if ellenberger is flat footed and swinging in the air.Comment -
Jay Hieron can take him down easily, if he plays it smart he will win a 30-27, the odd lines are way off, i think it should be a close to -175/+200. Wouldnt be shocked if hieron won, If it goes deeper then 1 and half rounds i can see hieron taking this fight, as long as he doesnt get blasted.Comment
