Philadelphia Flyers -110


Philadelphia Flyers are a desparate and an experienced team. Usually these types of teams know how to win critical games. Being at home, where the Flyers are 9-1 this postseason and 7-0 their last 7 games, gives them a huge advantage. On the season the Flyers were 24-14-3, outscoring their opponents by almost a goal per game (3.2 goals vs 2.4)

As good as the Blackhawks have looked on offense, their defense/goaltending (primarily defense) hasn't looked very good. In the last 3 games, Chicago has given up 4 goals in each of them, giving Niemi a fairly mediocre 86% save %-age (12 goals on 89 shots). A lot of those goals were due to Chicago's slopy play on defense more so than Niemi's play. This was evident in the first 2 games in Philadelphia. Giving up pucks in their own zone, passing the puck to the wrong team, and playing undisciplined hockey -- the pressure was definitely getting to them. I expect the same kind of pressure and intensity in today's game. Hawks know that the Flyers will come at them hard in the first 10 minutes. Sustaining that pressure will be key. Either way, it should be a closer and a tighter game than game 5. Usually these are the kinds of games that Flyers thrive on.

Leighton will rebound from his poor showing last game, Flyers will increase their intensity and effort, and a desparate home team with a 9-1 home playoff record is too much value to pass up at -110 odds.


UNDER 5.5 (+115)

4 out of 5 games have flown way over the posted total in this series, but the value is on the UNDER in today's matchup.

First of all, this could be the last game of the series. These types of games involve tighter coverages, more focus on cross-checking, and overall emphasis on defense.

Second of all, the OVER/UNDER is 6-9 in games when Chicago plays off 2 days rest and 9-20 after Philly allows 4+ goals in a previous game. These trend tell me 2 things: Chicago losses a bit of its momentum when there's a longer layover, and Flyers really step up defensively after playing like crap the game before.

Not sure how many of your remember but the series between Detroit and Pittsburgh last year, looks eerily similar to the Chicago/Philly series this year: (see below)

Detroit Red Wings 3–1 Pittsburgh Penguins
Detroit Red Wings 3–1 Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins 4–2 Detroit Red Wings
Pittsburgh Penguins 4–2 Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings 5–0 Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins 2–1 Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings 1–2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Red Wings won both games at home, then the Penguins took 2 on their home ice. After getting blown out by the Redwings on the road, Pittsburgh came home, increased their intensity, and squeeked out a 2-1 victory.

Hawks blew away the Flyers in game 5 and now they're traveling to Philly for game 6. Will history repeat itself? I think so and I do expect a low scoring win for the Flyers even though the whole world is on the OVER.