Originally posted on 01/30/2018:


For the Thunder it Becomes “Our Dinner Without Andre”…Did you notice that the Wizards just ran through a wall without Wall…Why the depth and talent of the Eagles DL matters so much…

Point Blank – January 30, 2018

We are a day closer to Super Bowl 52, and as promised in the Monday edition there will be a Game Inside the Game take each day this week, something for you to chew on in putting your own handicap together. But for today the biggest story is on the hardwoods, with the betting markets finally seeing a “hot” Oklahoma City team as the Thunder roll to eight straight wins, only to have seen any real hopes for a post-season run disappear with the loss of Andre Roberson.

OK, so you’re thinking, “Wait, Roberson doesn’t mean that much, does he?” He does, and the numbers are striking.

Before I get to that let’s plug in the jukebox, the focus this week on music that came from the Boston area as part of the run-up to the Patriots/Eagles clash, and naturally if that city is to be on display there needs to be an Aerosmith moment. But for me their only needs to be one – I found their music to be a little too crafted, and whereas so many of the performers that make the jukebox have done so because of the way they can evolve their songs live, Aerosmith on stage was rather formulaic. Except for this one…




I’ll get to why the underdog Eagles have a genuine reason for believing that they can Dream On to the Lombardi Trophy, but first let’s have some fun with numbers by sorting through the impact that losing Roberson may have for the Thunder


Item: As OKC prepares for “Our Dinner Without Andre”…

Does “My Dinner With Andre” still resonate as a cultural reference? It should, an example of substance through subtlety, and a reminder of the elegance that can come from something being genuine. And while it is mostly a play on words as the set-up here, it does connect to the point at hand, which is how much Andre Roberson had already meant to the Thunder, and how difficult the remainder of the season may become without him. It is also a time to use numbers to show what should have been seen, but likely wasn’t, through the first part of the season as eyes easily get focused elsewhere when this team plays.

Roberson is the best OKC defender, and one of the best in the NBA. He can guard the best threat from the opposition at either the Point Guard/Shooting Guard/Small Forward positions, which brings a lot of flexibility to Billy Donovan’s defensive rotations. And for this particular team it is also important that he is content on offense to play without the ball.

It is easy to see some of his defensive impact with the simplest of measures, the team when he was on the court, compared to when he was not:

Def +/-
In 96.4 +10.0
Out 108.6 -0.7



That only begins to tell the story. In terms of net impact we need to begin looking at the gap between Roberson and those that will be replacing him. To do that the focus will be on the 5th cog when it is Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, Paul George and Steve Adams manning the other four positions, and so far it has been mostly Terrance Ferguson and Alex Abrines. Based on PP100, the gap is substantial:

Min +/-
Roberson 539 +14.2
Ferguson 161 -5.4
Abrines 103 -4.1

Blame some of that on chemistry, blame some of it on ability, and blame some of it on the style of play the replacements bring. But also appreciate what that +14.2 means. How good were the Thunder on defense with their preferred starting five on the floor? Let's compare those numbers to the best full-team ratings from the season:

OKC5 95.9
1. BOS 100.0
2. SA 100.9

How about offense:

1. GS 113.8
2. HOU 112.3
OKC5 110.1

How about rebounding:

OKC5 57.4
1. PHI 52.4
2. DEN 52.2

Fascinating, isn’t it? OK, there is the usual caveat when rating only one unit because there are the issues of who they are up against when they are playing, but when it is the starting five you can have more confidence in the numbers because they will usually be up against the starters from the opposition.

Suppose we do a comparison of the OKC starters with Roberson, vs. the Golden State rotation of Curry/Thompson/Green/Durant/Pachulia (while over time this group may be better with Andre Iguodala instead of Pachulia, that has not been the case so far this season), and the Houston rotation of Paul/Harden/Ariza/Anderson/Capela:

GS +16.0
OKC +14.2
HOU +7.7

You didn’t expect to see that, did you? Not from a team that has seemed to stumble through inconsistency in opening 30-20. It shows how good they had been when all hands were on deck, also contrasting with how bad they have been without Roberson (in the 11 games he has missed so far they lost four times outright as favorites of -7.5 or more), and also one of the problems of shelling out $$$ to bring in the likes of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony – the bench production has been lacking.

There are big adjustments for Donovan to make going forward, albeit with limited resources, and there are also significant adjustments for the shrewd handicapper to perform – the betting markets may not appreciate just how good the Thunder had become with their prime rotation intact (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five games Roberson started), nor how far off they could fall.

Of course putting any of that into play tonight won’t be easy because we have to deal with the Wizards again…


Item: The Wizards ran through a wall when playing without Wall…

I won’t get redundant in detailing the recent struggles of the Wizards because it has been a talking point on multiple occasions here recently, except to note that fascination attached to their 129-104 rout of Atlanta on Saturday in the rare game played without John Wall. Instead of suffering without his playmaking ability the offense was crisp and fluid, a Tomas Satoransky/Tim Frazier PG tandem helping lead the way to 40 assists, the most in a game for the franchise since 1992.

From Scott Brooks, in the aftermath, naturally aware that the quote would get back to Wall: “One-on-one dribbling, it’s hard to score consistently when you do that. But the passing for 40 assists, I wasn’t expecting that. I like the way we were playing. Regardless if we made shots or not, we were playing with an extra pass in our mind.”

It was against the struggling Hawks, of course, so take it with a grain of salt. But it does shed more light on the mood of a troubled locker room.


Item: Understanding the Philadelphia pass rush

Now time for a little Super Bowl 52. Some of this will help in terms of handicapping the Side/Total, but also file it away for props. And I needn’t go too deep here because the concept will not a new one to regular readers.

If you are going to slow down the Patriots you need to be able to: A. Get pressure on Tom Brady so that he is not in his comfort zone in the pocket; and B. If at all possible get that pressure from the DL, without having to resort to blitzes. Blitzing Brady allows his poise and expertise to turn that pressure inside-out, especially given the ability to throw the ball to the RBs that is an integral part of the New England offense.

For the handicapper the process becomes a familiar one in breaking this matchup down because the Eagles are so close to the Jaguars in terms of their pass rush – they have so much depth and talent in the DL that they don’t have to resort to blitzes, Jim Schwartz rarely having to dial them up (82.9 percent of their sacks came from the DL).




Unlike the Jaguars, who were #2 in Sack%, the Philadelphia pass rush won’t jump off the page at you – the Eagles were only #22, getting the QB to the ground 5.9 percent of the time. But what happens when that rush comes without blitzing? Your coverage schemes remain intact, which is why Philadelphia allowed 6.5 yards per pass attempt, with only the Jaguars and Vikings better (there were five teams that rounded to 6.5, the Eagles at #6 in the NFL when you go to the next digit).

The gist is that the Philadelphia pass rush was more effective this season than Sack% will call it, because of how the talent in the DL consistently allowed seven defenders to remain in coverage, and depth absolutely played a part. Let’s look at the rotation both for the full season, and those playoff wins vs. the Falcons and Vikings:

Team 976 ATL (63) MIN (67)
Graham 663 57 53
Cox 607 57 53
Curry 576 47 36
Long 496 20 31
Jernigan 493 29 27
Barnett 424 16 33
Allen 423 26 24
Vaeao 231 0 11

Keeping pass rushers fresh is a major tool to have.

On Thursday when the focus shifts to props I will use some of this to break down the specific ways that the Patriots may attack, and you can see some of it coming out of the NE win over Jacksonville. Because the Jaguars didn’t blitz often their LBs were positioned well in coverage of the RBs, holding Dion Lewis and James White to just 54 yards on their 10 receptions. Where the work was done was Brady connecting to his WRs, Amendola/Cooks/Hogan/Dorsett catching 16 passes for 235 yards (some of that distribution was because Rob Gronkowski did not play the full game, which will be factored in to the thought processes as the week unfolds).

Overall the Jacksonville defense played well enough to win the game, allowing 344 yards at 5.6 per play. It has proven to be the best way to try to counter Brady in the past – keep your defense basic, get pressure from the front four, and don’t leave openings via gambles that he can exploit. The best way to have a chance at beating a chess master is reduce the board to checkers, which is something in the natural makeup of the Philadelphia defense.


In the Sights, Tuesday NBA…

Trends are always a bit tricky any time that the Spurs are involved because of who is in or out of the lineup for a given game, but the pattern vs. Denver has been a consistent one the past two seasons – it has been a 4-0 SU and ATS run in which Gregg Popovich and whatever players available that night have beaten the market expectations by a significant 58 points. I believe tonight’s setting calls for that to continue, and I will split a ticket on #514 San Antonio (8:35 Eastern) into First Half (you should be able to find a -3.5) and Full Game (value at -7 or less).

Pops and the Spurs will be well-set, this being the third consecutive home game that had a day off to hit the practice courts in between, and that can mean a sharpness in the rotation that was evident against Sacramento in Sunday’s 113-98 win, but would have been missed by folks only looking at the scoreboard. San Antonio controlled the boards 52-34 and had 33 assists vs. only seven turnovers, but the margin was not more decisive because the Kings had some improbable shooting from 3-point range, De’Aaron Fox going 6-6 and Vince Carter 5-7.

The Nuggets won’t bring that kind of spark, put in the rare spot of having to travel and play after a home game at altitude, and the setting gets exasperated because there was a major intensity level against the Celtics last night. Will Barton (43:37), Jamal Murray (38:44), Gary Harris (36:11) and Nikola Jokic (35:16) all logged major minutes, and they will be without Mason Plumlee, who suffered a calf injury and will not be able to play.

It is tough enough taking on the Spurs when rested and ready; the Nuggets will be worn down and without tactical prep time, and the recent series history has shown that their X’s and O’s haven’t even been close to being able to compete in this matchup. And with Denver having major home showdowns vs. the Thunder (Thursday) and Warriors (Saturday) on deck, Michael Malone could easily choose to wave a white flag if this one starts to get away.


If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as in unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.