Originally posted on 02/07/2015:

I tend to focus on travel, previous pitch counts, bp usage, and overall team trends--there's going to be periods where a team's bats are on fire or are ice cold. I'd consider myself a qualitative handicapper, who believes that a shallow, quantitative approach does not generate meaningful gambling insights. This means that I have to watch a sh.it ton of baseball.

More than any other sport, baseball is a game of repetition and poise. Every player and team is going to have interruptions and will present value situations from a bettor's perspective. Also, books expect to take such lopsided action when certain pitchers are pitching and on certain teams.

I tend to ignore shallow stats because they aren't predictive as much as they tell a story that's already unfolded. Shallow stat capping encourages lazy and inaccurate handicapping. Gamblers who subscribe to shallow stat handicapping fail to recognize the significance of what those stats might indicate.

I only say this because some of SBR's most respected handicappers are nothing more than shallow stat handicappers who believe they are pulling one over on the books. It looks like they are doing their homework because they are citing boxscores and batter/pitcher matchups, but it's nothing more than a lazy and bogus approach. There's edges to be gained, but shallow stat handicapping is the equivalent of putting a t-ball team up against a MLB team.