Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=21773945'>posted</a> on 05/02/2014:
This is my strategy/theory of sports betting. The angle I choose to make money will be to take advantage of teams' trends.
A team can only do 1 of 3 things in a fixed number of games. (1) They could win most of their games. (2) They could lose most of their games. (3) They could have a close to even mix of wins and losses.
The odds, of course, play a huge part of whether there is profitability or not. The odds reflect how good/bad a team is thought to be. What I am saying is: a "good" team needs a stronger winning trend in order for you to profit, if you were to follow that team, because the odds will be higher.
I choose to look for the opposite. I want to fade a "good" team or ride a "bad" team or ride/fade a "mediocre" team. Of course, "good" or "bad" team is relative to what the public thinks. That is easy to determine. This is to keep the odds lower.
I need to create a set of parameters to try and take advantage of team's trending to make a profit. I need a "tell" of some kind to determine when a trend will take place.
(1) Well, I just simply look at the team's recent performance and if they win/lose 4 in a row or 4 of 5, I will look for that to continue.
(2) It needs to be "opposite" of what kind of team they are: GOOD or BAD. Middle-of-the-road teams have no discrepancy.
(3) I bet on that trend to continue until a profit of around 4 units or until a "draw down" of around 4 units. Not a loss of 4 units, but a draw down. Of course, the max loss would be around 4 units.
I set up these parameters to give the team a good chance to come to some sort of conclusion. Eventually, they will profit me 4 units or have a draw down of 4 units. I will play no more than 5 teams at once. If they play each other, I will not double up. I will cancel the bet if they play each other with opposite trending.
*For point spread bets, such as over/unders, I look for a trend and bet the opposite to occur.
Here are my baseball results broken down so far:
(Retired betting trends)
Ride Brewers - (5-0)
Fade D-backs - (7-3)
"Follow the last result Over/Under" Nationals - (5-1)
"Follow the last result Over/Under" Tigers - (7-3)
Fade Angels - (10-14)
Ride Giants - (6-9)
Ride Marlins - (1-4)
Ride White Sox - (0-4)
*current trending bets*
Ride Rockies - (5-3)
Ride Royals - (5-5)
Fade Red Sox - (7-8)
This is my strategy/theory of sports betting. The angle I choose to make money will be to take advantage of teams' trends.
A team can only do 1 of 3 things in a fixed number of games. (1) They could win most of their games. (2) They could lose most of their games. (3) They could have a close to even mix of wins and losses.
The odds, of course, play a huge part of whether there is profitability or not. The odds reflect how good/bad a team is thought to be. What I am saying is: a "good" team needs a stronger winning trend in order for you to profit, if you were to follow that team, because the odds will be higher.
I choose to look for the opposite. I want to fade a "good" team or ride a "bad" team or ride/fade a "mediocre" team. Of course, "good" or "bad" team is relative to what the public thinks. That is easy to determine. This is to keep the odds lower.
I need to create a set of parameters to try and take advantage of team's trending to make a profit. I need a "tell" of some kind to determine when a trend will take place.
(1) Well, I just simply look at the team's recent performance and if they win/lose 4 in a row or 4 of 5, I will look for that to continue.
(2) It needs to be "opposite" of what kind of team they are: GOOD or BAD. Middle-of-the-road teams have no discrepancy.
(3) I bet on that trend to continue until a profit of around 4 units or until a "draw down" of around 4 units. Not a loss of 4 units, but a draw down. Of course, the max loss would be around 4 units.
I set up these parameters to give the team a good chance to come to some sort of conclusion. Eventually, they will profit me 4 units or have a draw down of 4 units. I will play no more than 5 teams at once. If they play each other, I will not double up. I will cancel the bet if they play each other with opposite trending.
*For point spread bets, such as over/unders, I look for a trend and bet the opposite to occur.
Here are my baseball results broken down so far:
(Retired betting trends)
Ride Brewers - (5-0)
Fade D-backs - (7-3)
"Follow the last result Over/Under" Nationals - (5-1)
"Follow the last result Over/Under" Tigers - (7-3)
Fade Angels - (10-14)
Ride Giants - (6-9)
Ride Marlins - (1-4)
Ride White Sox - (0-4)
*current trending bets*
Ride Rockies - (5-3)
Ride Royals - (5-5)
Fade Red Sox - (7-8)