Ferrringo
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #337 Iowa State (+14) over Missouri (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
I have to say that I still don’t trust Missouri as a heavy favorite. They have a big Rivalry game with Kansas next week where this is Iowa State’s last game of the season. The Cyclones are fighting for a winning record (they are 6-5 right now) and I feel like they will have some fire in this game. If Iowa State is good enough to go into Lincoln and beat Nebraska then I think that they are capable of going to Columbia and hanging around with the Tigers. Iowa State has revenge from a butt-kicking that they took last year, but other than that this has been a decent series. Two of the last five games have gone to OT, the dog have covered five of seven, five of eight have been decided by less than a touchdown, and other than last year’s blowout the last seven games in the series have been decided by an average of about 11 points per game. ISU has covered three of four road games and I like the experience of this team to come out and give one more strong effort.
5-Unit Play. Take #341 Kentucky (+9.5) over Georgia (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Note: This is our SEC Game of the Year. I could have just tacked on the extra two Units and "went for it", but that's not my style. So while I hate to not go with a bigger GOTY but I'm not going to put your money at risk for my own ego or "just because". But I like the play and I think it's a strong spot for us.
Kentucky got awful healthy awful quickly. They welcomed back a lot of playmakers last week including Randall Cobb, giving their offense a big boost. This team likes to grind it out on the ground and the plays right into the weakness of the Georgia defense. I think that they will be able to move the ball and turn this game into a bit of a grinder. Georgia really played inspired ball last weekend and they are trying to get themselves bowl eligible (to a respectable bowl). And while I do think that they will win this game I think that Kentucky deserves more respect from the oddsmakers. The last three years this game has been decided by four points, 11 points and four points, so these teams are a bit closer together than it appears. Kentucky went on the road this year and almost knocked off South Carolina and did beat an Auburn team that compares pretty favorably to this Georgia squad. Outside of losses to Alabama and Florida, UK has just a seven-point loss and a two-point loss on their resume, while Georgia, apart from a blowout at Vandy and against Tennessee Tech, has only won by an average of about six points per game. I’ll take the dog here and look for another competitive SEC game with UGA winning, but getting caught looking forward to a huge game with Georgia Tech next week.
2-Unit Play. Take #349 Connecticut (+6) over Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Notre Dame sucks. They shouldn’t have covered last week and I really like the Big East underdog in this one. Outside of a blowout of Washington State, Notre Dame has barely managed to win against a bunch of teams that aren’t very good. The average margin of their last four wins is about four points per game, and, win or lose, outside of two blowouts (Wazzou and Nevada) the average margin in all Notre Dame games this year has been just over four points per game in eight games. This should be a low scoring game and I like Connecticut to make the points stand up.
2-Unit Play. Take #358 Stanford (-7) over California (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Stanford just got done wrecking Oregon and USC, the two titans of the Pac-10. Now they get their rival, at home, without their best player. That means that Cal’s offense is in the hands of Kevin Riley. Well, I’ve seen enough of that to know that means the Bears are in trouble. John Harbaugh has his team clicking on all cylinders and they still have an outside shot at winning the conference title. Stanford has covered 11 straight at home and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have revenge from last year and the home team has won three straight games in this series. This will be a continuation bet, because even if Stanford doesn’t cover we will go right back to them against Notre Dame in a couple weeks.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #362 BYU (-10) over Air Force (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Big home game for BYU and I expect a strong effort out of them after they laid down in New Mexico last week. Their last home game was that blowout loss to TCU. I think they need to erase some of those memories. They do have the Holy War on deck, which worries me some. But they have owned Air Force lately, and that was against much better Air Force teams. BYU has won five straight with the average margin of victory at 19 points per game, with none of the wins by less than 14 points. Air Force has won three straight against very weak competition. This is the best team they have faced since taking on TCU and I don’t think that they are up to the task.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #363 UAB (+12) over East Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
This is a big game between two Conference USA teams that are battling for the East Division lead. Last year a seemingly much better ECU team needed a late drive to earn a come-from-behind win over the Blazers. I think this one will be just as competitive. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and UAB is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games. ECU is in somewhat of a letdown spot after a blowout win at Tulsa last week and UAB has played the top teams in the league tough this year. They beat Southern Miss and UTEP and only lost to SMU by two points. I think this one is played close and that the points hold up.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #371 UTEP (-6) over Rice (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
There is triple revenge on the board for UTEP, which has lost three straight in this series by an average of just six points per game. Also, UTEP has to be frustrated after losing three straight games by four points, by seven in
OT, and by five points. They are just that close to being 6-4 and in the mix for the conference title. Rice is coming off a nice win over a terrible Tulane team. But they simply are not a strong team and I don’t know if they can hold up against a potent UTEP attack. Miners have averaged 10 more points than Rice per game and have allowed six less. UTEP had the goods to beat a very talented Houston team. I think they have enough to beat a weaker Rice squad.
2-Unit Play. Take #382 Marshall (-3.5) over SMU (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
This is a very tricky spot for SMU and I think that the fact that they aren’t favored says a lot about how this one is going to go. This is Marshall’s final home and they are a stellar 11-2 in their last home game. There is a lot of experience on this team (this is Albert McClellan’s last game) and after almost knocking off Tulsa in their final game last year I think they are ready to spring an “upset” over the CUSA West leaders. Other than a 17-point loss at West Virginia, Marshall has lost by 7, 1 and 4 to the best teams in Conference USA (Southern Miss, UCF and ECU). They have covered six of eight games overall and I think that they win this one solidly.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #337 Iowa State (+14) over Missouri (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
I have to say that I still don’t trust Missouri as a heavy favorite. They have a big Rivalry game with Kansas next week where this is Iowa State’s last game of the season. The Cyclones are fighting for a winning record (they are 6-5 right now) and I feel like they will have some fire in this game. If Iowa State is good enough to go into Lincoln and beat Nebraska then I think that they are capable of going to Columbia and hanging around with the Tigers. Iowa State has revenge from a butt-kicking that they took last year, but other than that this has been a decent series. Two of the last five games have gone to OT, the dog have covered five of seven, five of eight have been decided by less than a touchdown, and other than last year’s blowout the last seven games in the series have been decided by an average of about 11 points per game. ISU has covered three of four road games and I like the experience of this team to come out and give one more strong effort.
5-Unit Play. Take #341 Kentucky (+9.5) over Georgia (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Note: This is our SEC Game of the Year. I could have just tacked on the extra two Units and "went for it", but that's not my style. So while I hate to not go with a bigger GOTY but I'm not going to put your money at risk for my own ego or "just because". But I like the play and I think it's a strong spot for us.
Kentucky got awful healthy awful quickly. They welcomed back a lot of playmakers last week including Randall Cobb, giving their offense a big boost. This team likes to grind it out on the ground and the plays right into the weakness of the Georgia defense. I think that they will be able to move the ball and turn this game into a bit of a grinder. Georgia really played inspired ball last weekend and they are trying to get themselves bowl eligible (to a respectable bowl). And while I do think that they will win this game I think that Kentucky deserves more respect from the oddsmakers. The last three years this game has been decided by four points, 11 points and four points, so these teams are a bit closer together than it appears. Kentucky went on the road this year and almost knocked off South Carolina and did beat an Auburn team that compares pretty favorably to this Georgia squad. Outside of losses to Alabama and Florida, UK has just a seven-point loss and a two-point loss on their resume, while Georgia, apart from a blowout at Vandy and against Tennessee Tech, has only won by an average of about six points per game. I’ll take the dog here and look for another competitive SEC game with UGA winning, but getting caught looking forward to a huge game with Georgia Tech next week.
2-Unit Play. Take #349 Connecticut (+6) over Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Notre Dame sucks. They shouldn’t have covered last week and I really like the Big East underdog in this one. Outside of a blowout of Washington State, Notre Dame has barely managed to win against a bunch of teams that aren’t very good. The average margin of their last four wins is about four points per game, and, win or lose, outside of two blowouts (Wazzou and Nevada) the average margin in all Notre Dame games this year has been just over four points per game in eight games. This should be a low scoring game and I like Connecticut to make the points stand up.
2-Unit Play. Take #358 Stanford (-7) over California (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Stanford just got done wrecking Oregon and USC, the two titans of the Pac-10. Now they get their rival, at home, without their best player. That means that Cal’s offense is in the hands of Kevin Riley. Well, I’ve seen enough of that to know that means the Bears are in trouble. John Harbaugh has his team clicking on all cylinders and they still have an outside shot at winning the conference title. Stanford has covered 11 straight at home and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have revenge from last year and the home team has won three straight games in this series. This will be a continuation bet, because even if Stanford doesn’t cover we will go right back to them against Notre Dame in a couple weeks.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #362 BYU (-10) over Air Force (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Big home game for BYU and I expect a strong effort out of them after they laid down in New Mexico last week. Their last home game was that blowout loss to TCU. I think they need to erase some of those memories. They do have the Holy War on deck, which worries me some. But they have owned Air Force lately, and that was against much better Air Force teams. BYU has won five straight with the average margin of victory at 19 points per game, with none of the wins by less than 14 points. Air Force has won three straight against very weak competition. This is the best team they have faced since taking on TCU and I don’t think that they are up to the task.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #363 UAB (+12) over East Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
This is a big game between two Conference USA teams that are battling for the East Division lead. Last year a seemingly much better ECU team needed a late drive to earn a come-from-behind win over the Blazers. I think this one will be just as competitive. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and UAB is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games. ECU is in somewhat of a letdown spot after a blowout win at Tulsa last week and UAB has played the top teams in the league tough this year. They beat Southern Miss and UTEP and only lost to SMU by two points. I think this one is played close and that the points hold up.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #371 UTEP (-6) over Rice (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
There is triple revenge on the board for UTEP, which has lost three straight in this series by an average of just six points per game. Also, UTEP has to be frustrated after losing three straight games by four points, by seven in
OT, and by five points. They are just that close to being 6-4 and in the mix for the conference title. Rice is coming off a nice win over a terrible Tulane team. But they simply are not a strong team and I don’t know if they can hold up against a potent UTEP attack. Miners have averaged 10 more points than Rice per game and have allowed six less. UTEP had the goods to beat a very talented Houston team. I think they have enough to beat a weaker Rice squad.
2-Unit Play. Take #382 Marshall (-3.5) over SMU (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
This is a very tricky spot for SMU and I think that the fact that they aren’t favored says a lot about how this one is going to go. This is Marshall’s final home and they are a stellar 11-2 in their last home game. There is a lot of experience on this team (this is Albert McClellan’s last game) and after almost knocking off Tulsa in their final game last year I think they are ready to spring an “upset” over the CUSA West leaders. Other than a 17-point loss at West Virginia, Marshall has lost by 7, 1 and 4 to the best teams in Conference USA (Southern Miss, UCF and ECU). They have covered six of eight games overall and I think that they win this one solidly.
