Question about odds and my friend's book

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  • Romerowned
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-20-12
    • 186

    #1
    Question about odds and my friend's book
    My friend's bookie normally has lines at -105. However, when lots of action goes to one side, he'll change the odds to Even and -110. If even more action goes to the same side, it'll change to +105 and -115. The spread does not change, only the juice.

    My question is, assuming the spread is correct and it is a 50/50 on which side covers, is it not +EV to always bet the +105 side? I'm a poker player and know very little about sports betting, but I know that if I'm getting 1.05 to 1 on a flip, I'll take that any day. So I was planning on just waiting till his book is unbalanced and always betting the +105 side. No research, no nothing. I trust vegas that the spread is a 50/50.

    Am I correct in thinking this? Does this have a positive expectation for me?
  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #2
    If it were a 50/50 bet, then yes, any bet at +105 has value. However, it probably is not a 50/50 bet if there is lopsided action.

    If the whole market were -105/-105 (e.g., Pinnacle, Bookmaker and Hilton), that market is a 50/50 bet. If your bookie offered a bet at +105 or +110 when the rest of the market was 50/50, it is clearly a good bet.
    Comment
    • RickySteve
      Restricted User
      • 01-31-06
      • 3415

      #3
      Are you not including Cantor as a market barometer because it isn't on-screen, or other reasons?
      Comment
      • Justin7
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-31-06
        • 8577

        #4
        Originally posted by RickySteve
        Are you not including Cantor as a market barometer because it isn't on-screen, or other reasons?
        I don't know enough about them. Perhaps I should study them more?
        Comment
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