Is Kershaw A Good Number at -275??

**THE_RUDESTER** · 06-17-15, 01:42 PM

Kershaw will be monew tonight. L.A. lost 2 and I think they take this one tonight at home. Too much talent and fans don't want to see their team lose again. I think they take care of business. Also keep in mind no DH for the Rangers tonight should quite down the bats for them. This definitely favors LAD going against a hot hitting team vs one of the best pitchers in baseball.

**LT Profits** · 06-17-15, 01:45 PM

No. Rodriguez has been just as hot and Texas is far from horseshit. They have a chance to win their division this year.

**jjgold** · 06-17-15, 01:49 PM

Merge my thread

There is another one on game

**Giants007** · 06-17-15, 01:52 PM

Rodriguez is 3-0 in 6 road starts with a 1.89 ERA, LA is 4-6 against lefties and their bats are ice cold, also the Rangers are 17- 6 this season playing against a team with a winning record. IMO Texas +240 has some value and +1½ (-115) doesn't look bad either

**SteveKerrsJunk** · 06-17-15, 03:01 PM

got it last night at -175, suckers.

**mitch51** · 06-17-15, 03:16 PM

Sandy Koufax ain't worth that.

**thebestthereis** · 06-17-15, 03:24 PM

if you can't find a better option stop gambling. good luck!

**EVfollower** · 06-17-15, 03:31 PM

Got an awful line on texas but +235 ML putting $100 on it. I honestly see it being 1-1 or 2-2 after 5 innings and it being a coin flip the rest of the way so +200 anything is a good number. Other plays for me are $230 each on STL and PIT tonight.

**twestacott** · 06-17-15, 03:59 PM

Seriously if you need to ask if any pitcher is worth -275 then just stop before you make yourself broke. Essentially you are implying that there is slightly under a 27% chance of Texas beating him. If you are that sure that he wins tonight why not bet the RL instead and protect your bankroll?

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 06-17-15, 04:39 PM

Kershaw has been money at home this year but Texas is hot and +240 is too good to pass up. Down big on Texas.

**44 Mag** · 06-17-15, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

Kershaw has been money at home this year but Texas is hot and +240 is too good to pass up. Down big on Texas.

So, for the sake of argument, you are going to put up 100. 00 of your money HOPING Texas beats Kershaw in his house ??? Why bother, wishful thinking. Looks good on paper, but in reality, are you willing to waste 100.00 ????

**Amadeo-Picks** · 06-17-15, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by SteveKerrsJunk

got it last night at -175, suckers.

the opening line for this was -250. It was never even as low as -220 .... So yea

**jjgold** · 06-17-15, 05:10 PM

I decided to pass mentally on this game best of luck to all

**LT Profits** · 06-17-15, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

So, for the sake of argument, you are going to put up 100. 00 of your money HOPING Texas beats Kershaw in his house ??? Why bother, wishful thinking. Looks good on paper, but in reality, are you willing to waste 100.00 ????

That is not it it at all. I have Texas winning this game 35% of the time which equates to "only" +185, Wandy being just as hot as Kershaw. Even if Texas wins this game 1/3 of the time to the Dodgers 2/3, +250 is good +EV.

**Ghenghis Kahn** · 06-17-15, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I decided to pass mentally on this game best of luck to all

wtf does this even mean?

**opie1988** · 06-17-15, 05:53 PM

Anyone laying -275 against a team that has the best record in baseball since May 4th is a dumbfukk. Period.

**jjgold** · 06-17-15, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by Ghenghis Kahn

wtf does this even mean?

It means I am making mental bets right now until July 4th.....it feels real though

**44 Mag** · 06-17-15, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

That is not it it at all. I have Texas winning this game 35% of the time which equates to "only" +185, Wandy being just as hot as Kershaw. Even if Texas wins this game 1/3 of the time to the Dodgers 2/3, +250 is good +EV.

So you have a 1/3 chance to win ???? And you think those are good odds ???? What am I missing here. 2-1 against at that rate. You said yourself last week, your "models just don't like Wandy...." now you are backing him ???? What changed in a week. LOL.

**TxBulldog** · 06-17-15, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by mitch51

Sandy Koufax ain't worth that.

This sums it up very nicely. If you are willing to lay $100 to win less than $38, you are a blithering idiot. I don't care if they were paying the Marlins.....People who lay prices like this are the "donators" who build those big buildings in the desert ;-)

**TxBulldog** · 06-17-15, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

So you have a 1/3 chance to win ???? And you think those are good odds ???? What am I missing here. 2-1 against at that rate. You said yourself last week, your "models just don't like Wandy...." now you are backing him ???? What changed in a week. LOL.

44 MAG....I will take 35% winners at +250 All Day, every day. If this doesn't make sense, do us a favor and back every -275 FAV on the board all year. You will not last long!

**El Sol** · 06-17-15, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

So you have a 1/3 chance to win ???? And you think those are good odds ???? What am I missing here. 2-1 against at that rate. You said yourself last week, your "models just don't like Wandy...." now you are backing him ???? What changed in a week. LOL.

roll a die and pick a number. All have a 1 - 6 chance in winning and all numbers will pay 6 - 1. You choose the number 6. You will go on massive losing streaks. But Over a 1000 rolls the number 6 will win enough at 6 - 1 that you break even. But what if the number 6 pays 7 - 1. numbers 1 - 5 will break even over 1000 rolls while the number 6 will earn you a profit at the end of 1000 rolls. So theres no reason to pick any number other than 6. This is what value is and this is exactly how you win at sports betting.

Its not about picking winners, its about putting your money on the side with value and grind. Theres no other way.

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 06-17-15, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

Kershaw has been money at home this year but Texas is hot and +240 is too good to pass up. Down big on Texas.

I think Texas is significantly better than 5/17 to win; that constitutes value.

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 06-17-15, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

So, for the sake of argument, you are going to put up 100. 00 of your money HOPING Texas beats Kershaw in his house ??? Why bother, wishful thinking. Looks good on paper, but in reality, are you willing to waste 100.00 ????

I think Texas is significantly better than 5/17 to win; that constitutes value.

**44 Mag** · 06-17-15, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

44 MAG....I will take 35% winners at +250 All Day, every day. If this doesn't make sense, do us a favor and back every -275 FAV on the board all year. You will not last long!

Thank you. I will take that under advisement. BOL tonight. And I don't back every -275 FAV.

**pbanks33** · 06-17-15, 08:20 PM

Under

**jjgold** · 06-17-15, 09:17 PM

Play ball

**frogsrangers** · 06-17-15, 10:02 PM

Joey Gallo just hit a home run halfway up the right field bleachers, right fielder didn't even bother

Kershaw also gave up a hit to the Rangers pitcher... not his night

**RavensFan2k3** · 06-17-15, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

Joey Gallo just hit a home run halfway up the right field bleachers, right fielder didn't even bother

Kershaw also gave up a HR to the Rangers pitcher... not his night

In what game?

**RollinDo** · 06-17-15, 10:09 PM

I should have just sat out tonight...had a solid day yesterday.
Played Under 6.5 in Cincy, Under 6 in LA, and LAD ML.

**LT Profits** · 06-17-15, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

So you have a 1/3 chance to win ???? And you think those are good odds ???? What am I missing here. 2-1 against at that rate. You said yourself last week, your "models just don't like Wandy...." now you are backing him ???? What changed in a week. LOL.

1/3 chance = +200. I get Rangers at +250. So long-term +EV if the 1/3 is accurate.

**frogsrangers** · 06-17-15, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

In what game?

Meant to say hit

**King Mayan** · 06-17-15, 10:19 PM

I wouldn't lay a 6 month old bag of chips on that pussy kershaw.

**opie1988** · 06-17-15, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by King Mayan

I wouldn't lay a 6 month old bag of chips on that pussy kershaw.

Dodgers look good, bruh.

**King Mayan** · 06-17-15, 10:21 PM

Fukk u Opie.