[aggieshawn]

Contest and entry level (points)?
Sharing Thoughts?
Win 4 Contest?

I like the idea for Saturday of having one Thread per Race for Discussion purposes.


Who here bets on the races on Betfair?

Where will you be during the races?? At home with 3 computers and 2 TV's?

Who will be posting from Keenland during the races?
Who can post some pictures of the action when there for us at home?

[joeyp1222]

i will be in lexinton for the races from wednesday to sunday i will try to post some picks and might pick up some tips from people at the TRACK Kitchen which is a place where alot of trainers, jockeys and owners go have breakfest from 6 am to 2pm cafferterria style im gonna check that place out maybe i can dig up a few good ones tyhat week. good luck guys

[Jowframs]

I'll be playing at home
At Betamerica

[aggieshawn]

Sign up at www.calracing.com to view previous races.

[mikemca]

If all the Euros come that are supposed to they are going to dominated every turf race except maybe the turf sprint.

Will win at least 4 of the 5 if not all 5

Juvy Filly Turf = Illuminate
Juvy Turf = Buratino and/or Gifted Master
Filly and Mare Turf = Amazing Maria
Mile = Esoterique , Muhaarar , Time Test , and 3 to 5 others
BC Turf = This is the strongest group they would send ever if Golden Horn , Flintshire , The Grey Gatsby , Free Eagle , Postponed or just 3 of top 4 come.

[sshz]

Very excited, it's only 2 weeks and a few days away........a few years ago I had my best day in racing (40 years) with a $16K profit. It seemed like I could do no wrong, had a monster Pick 4, 3 very nice $.10 superfecta's, and plenty of exacta's too.

I tend to concentrate my funds on the last 5-6 races, spending small amounts earlier in the day. With the advent of $.50 bets in the pick 4's and pick 5's, it's getting harder and harder to find good value but if you're going to bet any day, this is the one. Monster pools, great competition, at Keeneland, some nice imports, weather (I think it's supposed to snow there this w/e)- you get the picture.

I will probably play at Twinspires and at Betpop (paying track odds for the day) in emergencies or some back-up bets.

I'll be posting some links to helpful articles/stats as I come across them. Good luck to all- let's have a MONSTER day!!!!!!!

[sshz]

Breeders' Cup Takeout, Wagering Menus

10/13/2015
9:58 am


Breeders’ Cup Takeout
Win, Place, Show: 16 percent.
All Other wagers: 19 percent.
Minimum Wagers
Win, Place, Show, Exactas, Pick 6, Daily Doubles, including the Distaff-Classic Double -- One Dollar
Trifectas, Pick 3’s, Pick 4, Pick 5’s and the Super Hi-5 -- 50 cents
Superfectas -- 10 cents
Wagering Menu Oct.30 - Race order will be set on Oct. 21
Race 1 – 12:30 p.m., EDT, with Win, Place, Show wagering; plus Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3, Superfecta, a Pick-5 & a Daily Double into the 2nd race
Race 2 – 1:03 p.m. with WPS wagering; plus Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, and a DD in the 2nd race going into the 3rd race
Race 3 – 1:37 p.m. with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, Pick 4 & a DD into 4th race
Race 4 – 2:11 p.m. with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3 & a DD into 5th race
Race 5 – 2:47 p.m. with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, Pick 6 & a DD into 6th race
Race 6 – 3:30 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, Pick 4 & a DD into 7th race
Race 7 – 4:10 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, Pick 4 & a DD into 8th race.
Race 8 – 4:50 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3 & a DD into 9th race
Race 9 – 5:35 p.m. The BC Distaff; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, a Super Hi-5 & a Special DD into Saturday’s BCup Classic
Race 10 – 6:10 p.m. with WPS, Ex, Tri & a Superfecta
Wagering Menu Oct. 31 -- Race order will be set on Oct. 21
Race 1 – 11 a.m., EDT, with WPS, Ex, Tri, Superfecta, Pick-3, Pick 5 & a DD into 2nd race
Race 2 – 11:30 a.m. with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3 & a DD into the 2nd race
Race 3 – 12:05 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, Pick 4 & a DD into 4th race
Race 4 – 12:45 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, & a DD into 5th race
Race 5 – 1:25 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3 & a DD into 6th race
Race 6 – 2:10 PM: BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, Pick 5 & a DD into 7th race
Race 7 – 2:50 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3 & a DD into the 8th race
Race 8 – 3:30 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, Pick 4 & a DD into 9th race
Race 9 – 4:10 p.m. BCup race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3, Pick 4 & a DD into 10th race
Race 10 – 4:50 p.m. BCup Race; with WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, Pick 3 & a DD into the BC Classic
Race 11 – 5:35 p.m. The BC Classic; WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, a Super H- 5 & a DD into 12th race
Race 12 – 6:10 p.m. WPS, Ex, Tri and Superfecta

[Jowframs]

If all the Euros come that are supposed to they are going to dominated every turf race except maybe the turf sprint.

Will win at least 4 of the 5 if not all 5

Juvy Filly Turf = Illuminate
Juvy Turf = Buratino and/or Gifted Master
Filly and Mare Turf = Amazing Maria
Mile = Esoterique , Muhaarar , Time Test , and 3 to 5 others
BC Turf = This is the strongest group they would send ever if Golden Horn , Flintshire , The Grey Gatsby , Free Eagle , Postponed or just 3 of top 4 come.

Sorry dont agree

[aggieshawn]

The track announcer at Keenland always calls out the fact that it is a short stretch.

Is anyone now under the impression that speed is going to be the biggest key to cappin the day?

[sshz]

You can never tell about Keeneland. You'll have to pay attention to Friday's and early Saturday results, to get a feel if speed is holding up or not, along with any other biases i.e. inside posts. I really expect most of the races to be fairly wide open affairs, as Keeneland can be so unpredictable. The shorter stretch does hurt the late closers though, no doubt about that.

[aggieshawn]

I am coming to the conclusion: If they race.

Honour Code has no chance.
American Pharoah folds like a wet paper bag. I don't even think he realize it was Beholder blowing past him..

[sshz]

Race #11:Print RaceDownload Race
Value Plays: 10 (PP)-8 (PP)-2 (PP)-1 (PP)
Distance: 10 Furlongs
Surface: Dirt
Conditions: BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC. Grade I. Purse $5,000,000 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs., Older, 126 lbs., Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 117 lbs., Older, 126 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs. $50,000 to pre-enter, $50,000 to enter, with guaranteed $5 million purse including travel awards of which 55% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth, plus travel awards to starters not based in Kentucky.
Race Analyzer: Analyze Race

• Basic
• Advanced
• Value Plays

Sort: ValueHorse NamePlay TypePatternAverage Final Pace FigureAverage 4F Pace FigureProgram NumberPost PositionRacesDays Since Last RaceMost Recent Final Pace FigureMost Recent 4F Pace FigureTop Final Pace FigureMorning LineValue

P#	Horse	Races	Last Race	Value	Play Type	Pattern	Avg. Final	Avg. 4F	Last Final	Last 4F	Top Final	ML	PP
	Tonalist	14	28	1	Top Contender	SOFT	76.9	67.2	w76.4	59.7	81.0		10
	Keen Ice	11	63	2	Fringe Contender	SOFT	73.6	64.9	w79.0	62.6	80.2		8
	Beholder	20	35	3	Breakout	SOFT	74.4	73.2	w75.9	69.0	79.3		2
	American Pharoah	10	63	4	Average		77.1	73.0	78.7	67.8	82.0		1
	Frosted	12	42	5	Average		74.0	67.0	w78.5	64.3	80.0		4
	Honor Code	10	28	6	Average		75.7	62.8	76.4	67.5	81.1		7
	Hoppertunity	14	35	7	Average		75.0	67.9	76.4	60.0	80.6		9
	Hard Aces	25	35	8	Too Slow		72.2	66.8	74.1	58.8	77.3		6
	Effinex	18	28	9	Too Slow		73.0	67.7	71.7	60.7	79.8		3
	Coach Inge	13	28	10	Too Slow		72.5	69.3	70.7	59.2	79.8		3
	Smooth Roller	4	35	11	Too Slow		75.2	67.3	w78.4	61.1	78.4		9
	Gleneagles	0	-	-	-		-	-			-		5

[sshz]

The above form is a VERY EARLY analysis of the Classic basically concentrating on the horses FORM leading up to this race. It lists everyone who may enter but there are some listed that won't get to the gate or may race in a different race. When the day gets closer, you add the morning line odds or on game day, the actual current odds and it helps analyze VALUE too. There are numerous codes/numbers/etc listed that I won't go into just now (although I'll be glad to answer any questions).

The botton line right now is, there are probably 7 horses that can win this race. More on this later next week.

I can post these for every race, along with the value analysis the day before each race. I may just post the summary page for each race which explains a short summary for each horse, which may make more sense. These can be very helpful if you remember their purpose is not necessarily to pick the winner, but to show which horses past form is leading up to a strong race this time. There are always some hidden gems when closely analyzed. Stay tuned..........

[Justin_sane]

do we know who is riding tonalist?

[sshz]

Nope......it hasn't been announced and there haven't been any hints released.

[sandyw123]

I saw on m.breederscup.com that it's John Velasquez.

[Justin_sane]

damn it, easy toss now, watch johnny ride him up the track