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Keeneland Fall Meet 2015
The Fall meet at Keeneland takes on added significance because it ends with the Breeders Cup which is finally away from Santa Anita. Will try to play along every race day in order to get an idea of how the track has been going into the big days October 30th and 31st.
BTW enjoy it while it lasts as the BC goes back to California 2016 and 2017.
Look Forward to your picks. Will use them as a resource in contests on DW. One inquiry about the Brisnet's. I believe you stated in the past that you do not find them to be effective. Timeform is a great product, but I find that I have the most success using Brisnet. I find the numbers to be solid and the breakdown of info is big help. Good luck at the Meet.
Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 10-01-15 at 10:22 AM.
Day 1
Friday October 2nd
Race 1 can be tricky with low level claimers coming from tracks all over the country. The big 3 imo are 1-Moonlit Meteor 7-2 who is 1 for 1 at KEE at this very level and distance , 4-Proven Warrior 5-1 who is 2 for 2 at KEE , and 7-Defer Heaven 5-2 who is also 2 for 2 at KEE. They are also the only horses that have won over the track. Of the three 4-Proven Warrior has won here a class higher than this and then an allowance race here before that. The other two have all 3 wins at this 10k level. The 4 is the best price too so it's a no brainer to me.
4-Proven Warrior 5-1
1-Moonlit Meteor 7-2
7-Defer Heaven 5-2
Race 2
Not going to redboard , just will say Kalamos is one of my new favorite horses. That being said he was 50-1 last race and 3-1 here. No way he is even on my radar. Think they got the right favorite with 2-Knights Nation 5-2. He ran huge in his 1st and 2nd starts off the layoff before having a toss out race in his 3rd because of ramming into the gate. Not sure what to make of 3-Pablo Del Monte 7-2 but if he goes like he should then he has a pretty big pace edge as the only runner on the front end. Then there is 5-R. Great Adventure 10-1 who is the biggest price in the race. He has run well each of the 4 times he has come off a layoff with a 4-1-2-1 record. Finished behind Knights Nation in the Firecracker but gets a jock upgrade to Bridgmohan. The fave is legit but at the prices I'd have to stab at the 5 to win or w/p or w/p/s. Whatever your cup of tea is.
5-R. Great Adventure 10-1
2-Knights Nation
3-Pablo Del Monte
Race 3
The first of many tough baby route races on the card. None of the 2 year olds have established their route form with some trying it for the first time. On paper 7-Conquest Big E 3-1 looks tough. He ran a big race after having trouble from the rail in his debut. IMO Churchill gets more credit than it deserves based solely on it's prestige. So you may find some speed figures bloated as most have the class ratings for CD higher than they should be. This horse and Dothraki Dance will hold the keys to a couple other races today and Saturday with some others coming out of the same race. So if the figure is bloated we can play on or against them. I know this race is becoming long winded but Maiden Special Weight and Maiden Claiming races are where you can hit the most long shots out of any subset of classes. Mainly because of horses like Conquest who have a big figure going against many other lightly raced horses who can improve a ton in their 2nd and 3rd lifetime starts. Horses like 3-Blame The Caddie 15-1 or 10-Aztec Sense 20-1 fit the mold of the horses you want to play in races like this. They look a lot slower than the fave but horses will often make the biggest jump in ability/figures from start 1 to start 2. You can say well Conquest is making 2nd start too. The difference being a trainer like Casse or Pletcher or any other great 1st out trainer will have their horses cranked for that debut so they are more likely to run the same or even regress while trainers like Romans(Blame The Caddie) and Stewart(Aztec Sense) use the debut as educational so their horses almost always improve off debut. Rant over... Conquest probably wins by 10
10-Aztec Sense 20-1
3-Blame The Caddie 15-1
_________________________
6-Stand Guard 6-1
7-Conquest Big E 3-1
2-Attraction 6-1
Race 4
5-Gangster 8-5 lays over this field on figs so trying to find some prices to throw in exacta box with him and hope for the best. 1-Flash Trading 10-1 and 7-Motivational 12-1 run for trainers who do well in Kentucky and some trainers like them point to this meet in the Spring and Fall. Both horses go turf to dirt so their overall form is a bit murky to the public. Like Motivational a bit more as I don't think he has run his best race yet on turf or dirt.
7-Motivational 12-1
5-Gangster 8-5
1-Flash Trading 10-1
Race 5
The next 2 year old route has another big figure favorite for Mark Casse. I almost want to see them all lose just because I'm tired of seeing Conquest this and Conquest that. 7-Say Hey Kid 6-1 is one of those horses that was in the other Conquest and Dothraki race where we can see how they do and apply it to this race and another 1 or 2 Saturday. Dallas Stewart also has another 2nd timer who finished strong in an educational sprint debut , 11-Saint Aloysius 15-1 . Even in his down years the one thing N Zito has always done good to great is moving horses from sprint to route so maybe 1-Vilma 20-1 will be a different horse than we saw in sprint run.
11-Saint Aloysius 15-1
1-Vilma 20-1
3-Conquest Windycity 8-5
7-Say Hey Kid 6-1
Race 6
The two favorites here Pin Up and Miss Mo Kelly are favored because of there trainers. K McLaughlin and C Block have fared the best with more than 12 entries by far with horses at Keeneland in routes over the last 5 years. Block is more one dimensional with specifically turf routers but McLaughlin is turf and dirt. And if you just change it to the past year and a half McLaughlin is hitting at close to 45% with all runners at KEE. All that said I usually try to go mostly by the horse and they look pretty good too. So this may be a tough race to find a price.
5-Pin Up 3-1
10-Miss Mo Kelly 7-2
4-Crocus Hill 5-1
Race 7
10-Enchantress 7-2 may be the single on the card. 7-2 is a big price for this horse after facing much tougher last 6 races. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see how this horse is not even money. 9-Chortle 12-1 is alone on the lead and can hold on for at least a piece at a nice price. The there is 4 or 5 horses that seem about right in price to pick from. I'll go with 7-Elusive Fate 8-1 who ran big here in the spring. 2,3,4,5 are the others.
10-Enchantress 7-2
7-Elusive Fate 8-1
9-Chortle 12-1
Race 8
1-Runhappy 9-5 who drew the rail ran out of this world last race but this is a big field with some good horses to be 9-5 and 2nd choice is 2-1 and drawn furthest outside in post 12. Everyone else but Holy Boss is 15-1 or more. The two faves plus Fast Anna all want the lead almost guaranteeing a very fast pace. There has to be some value somewhere. 5-Sharp Sensation 30-1 is also entered in the turf sprint on Saturday so we'll see where he goes . Would be interesting here with 14 of his 15 starts on turf on synthetic he is a bit cloudy but won his only dirt start. If this ends up being a chaos race where the 1 and 12 duel each other to death then it will be baloons all over.
Race 9
Don't want the winner of Pocohontas , Dothraki Queen got a perfect trip riding the rail toward the rear and then the seas parted around the far turn for her to shoot right up the rail. 3-Put Da Blame On Me 15-1 , 4-Decked Out 20-1 , 7-Dream Dance 12-1 , and 11-Just Wicked 3-1 all had tougher trips in some way. I'm looking to 6-Little Cherie 12-1 and 8-Lookout Sister 8-1 as new shooters. Have to narrow it down but those 6 are the field I'm picking from.
Race 10
8-Execute 9-2
3-Muddbone Road 8-1
5-Sound Of Freedom 7-2
6-Qaadih 20-1
Brisnet is completely computer generated off raw times. With the draconian way the races are timed in this country you need a human eye to account for all the mistakes that are made. Also am a firm believer that the track can change multiple times a day so using one variant is a big mistake imo. With that said you can get bris free for 99% of the races at the major tracks so if it works for somebody it's the best value there could be. I just prefer and trust the work behind making timeform speed , pace , and class ratings
more than any other provider
OK. I was not aware that the figures are computer generated. Thx.Originally Posted by mikemca
good luck Mike, have a great meet in Keenland.
Thanx
mike,let's nail some winners
Too many short prices Day 1. Going to get old real fast if I have to start picking all favorites.
Saturday
Keeneland
Race 1
3-Spangled Banner 9-2
Race 2
5-Whence 4-1
2/2B-Catalano Entry 5-1
Race 3
4-Exodus 3-1
Race 4
5-Escalante 12-1
10-Amazing Charisma 6-1
Race 5
7-Mongol Bull 20-1
Race 6
1-Heykittykitty 10-1
Race 7
1-Crowley's Law 5-1
Race 8
9-Wild Man 15-1
Race 9
4-Grand Arch 8-1
Race 10
4-Bluegrass Special 5-1
Saturday
Keenland
Race 6
#8 Brown Eyed Mary 20-1
#5 Leigh Court
#7 Fioretti
Race 8
#8 Sheikh of Sheikhs * BB
Race 9
#12 Tourist
#13 Seek Again
#5 Dutch Connection
Race 1
#6 Emmajestic
R2
#3 Condominium
R7
#11 Tepin
Scratched into Amazing Charisma race 4 to get me ahead on day
Mongol Bull scratched race 5 so trying Mongolian Saturday
Modest win Saturday with Amazing Charisma $17 and Grand Arch $10.60 . If I would have played W/P bets would have been in the same ballpark roi wise as 3 horses finished 2nd and would have put the total near $60 on $40 bet instead of $27.60 on $20 bet.
Sunday
Race 1
4-Awesome Citizen 8-1
Race 2
5-Horsetailspeedster 6-1
Race 3
8-Southern Blessing 6-1
Race 4
(Turf)9-Pennmarydel 8-1
(Dirt)8-Stardom Found 12-1
Race 5
7-OTB Bob 4-1
Race 7
2-Cinder 10-1
Race 8
2-Sallisaw 8-1
Race 9
2-Tiz Windy 15-1
Race 10
7-Thisoneismine 12-1
Man i sucked today. Got 3 days to study up for Wednesday though.
Wednesday
Keeneland
Race 1
10-Tusk 5-2 might be tough finishing behind some good horses in 2 career races . Third in debut behind G2 winner Azar and then third behind Camelot Kitten who finished 2nd in the Bourbon here a few days ago. I'll go with the unknown 1-Sir Dudley Digges 10-1 making first start for Maker with Leparoux up. Gio Ponti is off to a pretty good start as a sire and Maker is more than capable of winning long with a juvenile on turf.
1-Sir Dudley Digges 10-1
10-Tusk
Race 2
3-Maziette 6-1
Race 3
8-Hidden Brook 12-1
Race 4
3-Christie's Ready 20-1
Race 5
3-Hey Cuz 12-1
Race 6
2-Carita 8-1
Race 7
9-Inconclusive 20-1
6-Sapphire Kitten 10-1
11-Family Tree 20-1
Race 8
3-Parting Gift 10-1
6-My Majestic Flight 12-1
2-Perfect Saint 8-1
8-Stand Guard 6-1
Another beating... Not throwing anymore money away until i get a better grip
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