Horse capping advice?

[hurricane1091]

Hey boys, I've recently gotten into horse racing. Saw the triple crown in person and saw American Pharoah win the Haskell today. I did good at Belmont, but it was luck. Today I didn't do so well, but I understand what I was reading in the book. I did a lot of exacta and trifecta bets and was able to get 1/2 or 2/3 on basically all of them but had some bad luck a few times, like getting 1st and 3rd on an exacta, etc. My question really is this: are exacta and trifecta (and I guess superfecta) bets sucker bets - a la parlays? Should I always be boxing these bets? I'm pretty novice to this. I did a lot of comparing to the types of races the horse was used to (used to short tracks but running a longer one, staying away from horses that were claimed multiple times in the year, avoiding horses with very long layoffs, etc). Maybe someone can point me in the right direction for a book or something? It's fun, and I'd like to get good at it and win when I go. I could throw money on horses that are like 4-1 obviously but then that involves substantially bigger bets to really turn it into real winnings, and I usually end up with an exacta if I like a horse that just has low paying odds to make it worth while. Just curious what is the best route to go.

TL;DR = Are exotic wagers considered sucker bets and should you always box them? Thanks boys.

[BGboothA]

Exacta and Trifectas ARE NOT ALWAYS sucker bets...making ill informed exotic bets, now that is a sucker bet.

I would tell you to NEVER box your exotics....it says, "I can't handicap and I don't know what is going to happen". A trifecta box has 6 combinations, you have to have a feeling that 1 or 2 or 3 of those combinations are more likely or better than the others, you need to put your money where your handicapping tells you.

If you want to bet exotics then you need to read Steve Christ Exotic Betting

I would always tell beginners to focus on win bets and take good notes.

[hurricane1091]

BG,

Thanks for the quick reply. I will check out that book. For the trifecta, I agree that boxing it seems like a tough option, especially if you are wagering more than a $2 bet. Boxing an exacta didn't sound terrible. I can see how getting good at picking winners first is important because it will then allow you to actually win exotic bets. I had more fun despite losing since I wasn't blindly picking, but I know there's a ton to learn.

[Arky]

... Boxing an exacta didn't sound terrible...

It's not. Especially, if you're including say, 8-1 or 12-1 (or higher) type horses. Of course, the odds of hitting are already long with those types. 2-horse exacta box is not a big deal.

One thing that I find helpful is to learn the times. Pre-Beyer one had to figure out who the fast horses were. For example, at Oaklawn, a horse that can run 6 furlongs on a fast track in 1:10 or even 1:11 is a pretty fast horse. Use that as a baseline to compare him to his competition. Consider the track conditions, steady work, weight, jockey, etc. - all the other factors when evaluating the time... The Beyer number is useful but it's just one stat...

[hurricane1091]

Good advice, thanks. I may be at Delaware Park this weekend if I'm not busy to give things a go.

[chaka]

An alternative to boxing is say taking horses 2,4 with 1,2,4,8 exacta

stick with one or two tracks, learn the jockeys and the trainers..eventually the horses will run back in Few weeks

bet win and win/place

Watch for horses for courses

its a big ass mountain to climb but every day learm little more

i feel,watching replays would help immensely if one had the time. Are their free replays anywhere? Everything is pay nowadays

[BOA12]

Toughest game in town and I bet win/place and key with all in exactas $1 box and play one track at a time normally NY . BOL to you and all new players-we need them.

[unusialsusp5]

actually you should play the horses that have multiple claims since whoever claims them wants to get their money back and the horses are usually in good shape. even if they go up slightly in class after the claim that can help the odds. beware of horses that have been idle for 3 months or more. however, if they take money good idea to use them "only" on top in exacta's as they usually either win or are up the track.

[hurricane1091]

I went to Delaware Park today. I ended up just short of +$100. I hit a great trifecta. I got 2/3 on a bunch others and on one or two of them one of the horses I needed finished 4th or fifth. So it was close. Did a few places/win bets with some success. Bought a book from trackmaster to go along with the book at the track. Had fun. I worry a lot about past performance times, time off, etc etc. The trackmaster book had a few notes and the class and speed ratings. I know they aren't the end all be all, but they were pretty helpful in removing half the horses from the field.

Learning boys.

[hurricane1091]

Well I went again finally and lost $20 on Saturday @ Delaware. I had the two programs, one like the regular track program and again the one with the grades.

I'm annoyed because it should of been a good day. I had taken notes before we went and I had told my boys that race 2, 3, 4, and 5 were iffy to be and I liked the others much better. Said we shouldn't waste time with exotics because I did not have a good feel for it. Well, we lost the first race on our exacta horses coming in 1st and 3rd and it was close, so we ended up ditching the plan and went for it in the following race and didn't come close. Fast forward a bit because the losing continued until later on. We ended up getting a couple winners and my brother finished up ahead. Annoying part was one of the late races I had 2,3,4 on the trifecta and we talked it out and decided it seemed doubtful 3 horses in a row would finish first second and third (this is probably dumb, we have no idea) and did 2,4,7 and blew it on the 7 horse. Next race I ended up hitting the exacta for a few bucks, but I had the exacta right written on the program on the notes I took the day before. Had no balls by the last race lol and didn't pull the trigger. Actually would of been in the positive if I did.

Anyways, another learning experience. Have to pick and choose your battles and bet big when you're confident. Learning boys. PA Derby @ Parx is next.

[hurricane1091]

Boys I got murdered yesterday at PARX. Was doing bad all day, had a couple bad breaks but generally would say I was just bad. Bet the rest of my money on Upstart to show and he didn't. Had no money for last race so I went over to the paddock and capped it that way. My GF liked horse six and my brother liked horse five. I liked both, so I went and looked at them. There was only 2 other contenders, and they had their heads down and seemed lethargic. 6 was kicking and seemed energetic, but seemed to be wasting energy. 5 was calm and confident, a big strong horse with his head straight and blinkers on, no bandages. I told my GF to take 5-6 exacta box for $5 and told my brother same thing. Both did and it cashed for $71.00

So I spent this day being absolutely terrible then capped a game but made no money. What gives? I used the paddock method once before and determined horse 3 was no good at Monmouth because his head was down and his trout was slow, and he ended up coming in close 2nd so I blew it. Is the paddock watching method worth while or what?

[temple2010]

read this: beyer on speed- very good book and will def enlighten you.

https://books.google.com/books/about/Beyer_on_Speed.html?id=rztm-KHHBt4C

[Jowframs]

Boys I got murdered yesterday at PARX. Was doing bad all day, had a couple bad breaks but generally would say I was just bad. Bet the rest of my money on Upstart to show and he didn't. Had no money for last race so I went over to the paddock and capped it that way. My GF liked horse six and my brother liked horse five. I liked both, so I went and looked at them. There was only 2 other contenders, and they had their heads down and seemed lethargic. 6 was kicking and seemed energetic, but seemed to be wasting energy. 5 was calm and confident, a big strong horse with his head straight and blinkers on, no bandages. I told my GF to take 5-6 exacta box for $5 and told my brother same thing. Both did and it cashed for $71.00

So I spent this day being absolutely terrible then capped a game but made no money. What gives? I used the paddock method once before and determined horse 3 was no good at Monmouth because his head was down and his trout was slow, and he ended up coming in close 2nd so I blew it. Is the paddock watching method worth while or what?

watch Daily Double will pays
money pools in the place pools
this will help
Money tells a story

[rkelly110]

I make my money on harness racing. I bet on the favorite with 5 minutes to post. $5 win, $7 place and $12 to show.

You could also martingale the two favorites for an exacta. Lose, double up the next race etc, until you hit for a profit.
You must start from the 1st race at the same track. Usually will hit within the 1st 5 races.

GL. Keep an eye out for trends at your local track and hit 'em hard.

[Thunderground]

The trick is to become an expert handicapper and not stop there, but become an expert bettor as well. Most good handicappers have no idea how to wager.

For the first part, expert handicapper, I would study str's thread. It could be edited into a book and it would be second to none. For the second part I would study the book 'exotic wagering formulas' inside out, back to front, and upside down. It will teach you how to bet relatively small amounts to cash huge tickets, and it will also teach you not to throw your money away. Of course, if you want a new school edge over old school, you can learn to program in excel and streamline everything. It's a big mountain to climb, but it can be climbed. One step at a time. This is one paragraph, but it will take you a number of years to master the basics, and the rest of your life to perfect it all.

[mikemca]

Boys I got murdered yesterday at PARX. Was doing bad all day, had a couple bad breaks but generally would say I was just bad. Bet the rest of my money on Upstart to show and he didn't. Had no money for last race so I went over to the paddock and capped it that way. My GF liked horse six and my brother liked horse five. I liked both, so I went and looked at them. There was only 2 other contenders, and they had their heads down and seemed lethargic. 6 was kicking and seemed energetic, but seemed to be wasting energy. 5 was calm and confident, a big strong horse with his head straight and blinkers on, no bandages. I told my GF to take 5-6 exacta box for $5 and told my brother same thing. Both did and it cashed for $71.00

So I spent this day being absolutely terrible then capped a game but made no money. What gives? I used the paddock method once before and determined horse 3 was no good at Monmouth because his head was down and his trout was slow, and he ended up coming in close 2nd so I blew it. Is the paddock watching method worth while or what?

Parx is arguably the worst track in the country to bet.

They put out a terrible product and have among the highest takeout rates in the USA. Also it's like the wild west so you're not betting which horse is fastest but which trainer can modify his/her horses performance the most that day through who knows what means.

For the most part that happens in most lower level claiming races. All the horses have physical issues that aren't public information so there is no telling which horse is going to run 20 points better or worse.

Delaware is not much better.

I would stick to the bigger circuits like Kentucky , who I think has the most stringent testing among all the states. Or maybe NY and Cal.

I love exacta boxes but pick and choose the races to bet from the few tracks. Make about 3 to 5 bets out of the 25-30 races I look at. I usually find a price horse I like and key it in 1st and 2nd.



cliffs

Takeout rates are important to the bettor
Allowance horses/Stakes horses are more predictable than claiming horses(imo)
If you bet too many races you will lose. There are 1000s of races every day so be selective