[BGboothA]

Of the three Kentucky Derby Preps slated to run on Saturday, March 7^th the San Felipe at Santa Anita is far and away shaping up to be the best field. The third and fourth place finisher in this race will likely be placed higher on my overall KY derby rankings than the place finishers in the other two.

1 - LORD NELSON - This is an interesting horse that many people have high on their Kentucky Derby boards and for good reason. His HBD pedigree rating for this distance is an impressive +9 and his run in the San Vincente beating Texas Red at 7f was nothing to discount. The Kentucky Jockey club run was something to be concerned about, but no one seemed to run well that day and the track as a whole was producing weird times and figures that weekend, so I think it’s a fair toss. I think he will take more money on Saturday than where is fair odds will lie, but this is a horse that can win this race without much of a big surprise.

2 - OCHO OCHO OCHO - My top pick for this race and if I can see anything close to his 4-1 morning line I will be ecstatic. This undefeated colt has done nothing wrong and ran three very impressive racing including a nice win in the Delta Jackpot and an even more impressive win the morning of the Breeders Cup in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (ran on dirt). His HBD pedigree rating is +3, and shows no worries about the distance, I like him coming out of the 2^nd post position and getting a good jump on the rail and getting a possible short trip from near the front at Santa Anita. His only questions mark is the time off and coming back from injury he may need one race to return to form.

3 - DORTMUND - The clear morning line 8/5 favorite and some of the California money may push him closer to even money which is fine by me. I have my concerns regarding this horse including an HBD pedigree rating of -5 for this distance. He ran well in the Robert B. Lewis last time out, but frankly barely won a race against a fairly weak field. In his penultimate start he raced against a very short field and again barely hung on to beat a similarly weak field. This is a colt that will not find his way onto my ticket and I would love to see the public play down to even money.

4 - THE GOMPER - Fields need horses and this one fills a gate, but really doesn’t come close to comparing with the majority of this field. The 15/1 morning line seems low and will likely be closer to 30 and for good reason. It’s tough to picture anything other than complete breakdown of a race to see this colt find his way into the money let alone the winners circle. HBD pedigree rating of -6 doesn’t help my confidence in this colt. Tossing with confidence.

5 - KENJISTORM - I love the name but again this is a horse making a start in a G2 Kentucky Derby prep race who hasn’t ever hit the board. Not only has he not broke his maiden, but this is a horse that hasn’t finished in the top three against much much much weaker fields. Why am I still typing about this horse…toss’em.

6 - PROSPECT PARK - Making a step up to compete with the big boys is this colt who has made two nice runs here at Santa Anita in his last two starts, both finished in the winner’s circle. His last outing was an impressive 5 length win at a mile against a quality field. The distance shouldn’t be a problem even with a fair +1 HBD Pedigree number. His speed may be a problem. It’s going to take a step up in form to compete here. The fact that he has a morning line of 4/1 equal to Lord Nelson and Ochox3 is a little low, I have his fair odds line closer to 8-1 for a bet here.

7 - BOLO - Turf to dirt at Santa Anita hasn’t always been the strongest play, but this is a horse that has shown tremendous early speed and stamina on the turf. It will be interesting to see how this translates to the dirt. I would expect him to take a shot at wiring this field and he has the potential to do so. His -16 HBD Pedigree rating is a bit misleading with the move off the turf. It’s also interesting to note the jockey change as Mike Smith will be on Ochox3. Of all the horses in the race with question marks this is the one that could surprise the field especially if the pace sets up for him on the front of this field.

8 - PULMARACK - Here is another horse that I see having a hard time hitting the board in this field. He showed some nice improvement coming back to Santa Anita last time out in the California Cup where he finished 2^nd at this same distance to a much weaker field. HBD pedigree rating of -7 doesn’t bode well for his ability to hang with the others in this race.

9 - SIR SAMSON - This is an interesting horse for this race, not because I think he can win, but I think he can play an important role in deciding who does win. He has two nice races including a solid third place finish just a length off of Lord Nelson and Texas Red in the 7f San Vincente here at Santa Anita. He has a positive HBD pedigree rating of +1 for this distance and should be able to finish strong, but the question here is the pace. If he jumps to the lead and pressures the pace he could destroy Bolo’s chances of holding off this field of horses that will likely want to be just off the leaders. If he sits back I don’t see how he puts himself in a position to score here. The outside post makes this questions a tough one to answer for his connections and I am excited to see how they play him from the beginning of this race.

10 - PAIN AND MISERY - The name says it all, breaking from the far outside against this field, if you put your money on this horse all you will receive is pain and misery. This horse doesn’t seem to belong in this field. He has a scary -18 pedigree rating for this distance, he doesn’t have the speed to connect with anyone in this field. He hasn’t raced over 6f, he hasn’t put up a speed figure close to the rest of this field. He is moving from the downhill turf course at Santa Anita to the dirt track. I haven’t seen this many negative marks on a PP in a long time.

Overall -

Pace makes the race! And at Santa Anita this seems to be true more than other places. There is going to be value here IMO. And I will be throwing together a number of exotic tickets here that leave Dortmund out of the money as I think he is amazingly over-rated and will be highly over bet here. My focus will be on OCHO OCHO OCHO, LORD NELSON and BOLO. With the likely winner of OCHO OCHO OCHO. But this is far and away the race of the weekend that will tell us the most about the field that will enter the starting gates in Kentucky, at least until next weekend.

[BGboothA]

I was expecting to see those three on the top, but the Gomper surprised me to see him come out as the fourth choice. Top L8 speed but not by much and interesting note on Bolo that I thought may go out early, but really doesn't seem to have the Early speed that I thought I saw on teh paper. Ocho Ocho Ocho is looking even better after looking at these figures.