Just played the first race, I was on the 3 and would have thought I was cashing pretty easy when they hit the turn. The 5 that won broke out and ran crazy 23/46/1:12 splits and was able to hold on. Not sure if it has more to do with the rest of the field not being quality or a bias on the track.
But knowing the following:
1. This horse should not have been able to hold looking at his current form. Heck, I have him rated as a -53.2 late speed when quick pace fractions.
2. They closed the track yesterday due to track conditions, so you know they had to firm up the track and work on it last night.
It may be some early speed day at PARX to cash in on...lets see how it plays out.
Race 2 - Top E1 got the lead and held, but this one wasn't as surprising IMO. But still something to keep in mind. The place horse was also the top E2 value, with a big -21.5 L8 figure to think about to.
Looking at the 4 KICK SAVE whose morning line is 15-1. He is at the bottom of my list, but should get the lead and get the rail form the spot in a short 6f race. His 262.2 HBD EP should hold if my theory is right, of course the 1 could throw a wrinkle in this if he breaks well and decides to take a stab at the lead. But the 4 moving R2S and with the top EP figure, lets take a shot at a nice price.
Son of A!!! Theory held, but I was on the wrong early pace...the 1 did jump out and hold on nicely! Should have probably seen that one too. That sucks, should have cashed there. But I will be playing a bunch of early speed for the next few races.
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