[BGboothA]

Here we go, it’s about that time in the Road to the Kentucky Derby that we start putting together our top Derby horse lists, we will do the same. As always, we like to be a little different here are our top 6 Kentucky Derby horses as of February 24^th. Pool three opens Friday, let’s take a look at who we think has a chance to take some of our money this weekend.

INTERNATIONAL STAR - An obvious choice thus far sitting on top of our list already with 71 points in the prep schedule and coming off a nice win in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds this past weekend. A nice win over what looks at this point as a semi-quality field, although I am not sure that many of these other horses are going to be around come the first weekend in May. Still a nice run through some traffic that included a solid move entering the turn led to an easy one-length win in the first 50 point derby prep races of the season. If you add the Risen Star win on top of his Lecomte win back in January this is a horse that has beaten the same field easily twice now. I am excited to see what he will do against a tougher field next time out, as he is more than likely pointed toward the Louisiana Derby. He already has more than enough points to qualify for a starting spot in the Derby. He closed pool two at 44-1 and it will be interesting to see what he comes out at in pool 3 this weekend.

FAR FROM OVER - Currently only sitting with 10 points thus far in the prep season, but this is simply my personal favorite. His run in the Withers was without a doubt the best single race I have seen this year, by any horse let alone a young three year old. He stumbled horribly out of the gate and gave a good 10+ lengths to a quality field settled down nicely and finished strong to win the race. But it wasn’t the win that really has me excited, watch the replay of this race and you will see the jockey Manuel Franco pressing him and going to the stick with three furlongs to go. This is a red flag to some, but most horses who get the whip that early have nothing to offer down the stretch, instead this horse started to pick off horses the second he was asked to move. The other thing to keep in mind with this race was the pace, it wasn’t as though FFO was picking off horses that were tired, this was a quality field that ran the half in 47:95, plenty of speed up front to keep him near the rear, but they weren’t able to. As the entered the stretch FFO was down along the rail and looked to be pinned made a nice move through some traffic and pulled away to win by a more than a length. Thus far he is an impressive 2-2 and will likely make his next start in the Gotham stakes in a couple of weeks at Aqueduct. He would have been 5/2 as part of the field in pool 2, but will likely be worth a look coming up in pool 3.

FAR RIGHT - This is an interesting colt and will be sitting on our list after an impressive win at Oaklawn this weekend in the Southwest Stakes. Here is another horse that I am excited to see take on some stiffer competition in the coming month or so as he has shown the ability to beat a similar field twice in a row in the Southwest and in the Smarty Jones. The impressive thing about this horse is his ability to move through some traffic. His race in the Smarty Jones back in January was impressive in the way he was able to move through horses coming into the stretch, most young three year olds have a hard time splitting horses and pulling through, but Far Right made it looks easy and then came back from an impressive run to win again. Looks like he will be pointing toward the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in early April. He was sitting at nearly 50-1 in pool 2 and will likely be a good price in pool 3.

AMERICAN PHAROAH - Its probably crazy to have a horse on this list that hasn’t ran in a race since the end of September, but this is a horse that looked absolutely amazing at the age of 2 before dealing with the injury that kept him out. He looks to return in a couple weeks in the Rebel Stakes and could get an exciting field to make a comeback against. The pedigree on this horse is absolutely stunning and Baffert seems to be able to get a horse ready come prep season. He has been working out well the last couple of weeks. I am really interested to see where he is on the pool three odds and could really get a nice price on a horse that could come back to be one of the favorites in May.

OCHO OCHO OCHO - Another horse that missed some time due to injury, but this is an impressive horse that is undefeated in 3 starts and will be making his return in a couple of weeks at the San Felipe Stakes at his home track Santa Anita. He only has 10 points in the prep season with a win at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Jackpot, but he beat some quality horses including a horse higher on this list in Far Right. He also had an impressive win on the undercard of the Breeders Cup races in the Juvenile Turf Sprint that was moved to the dirt that he won by more than 5 lengths. He was 26-1 at the close of pool 2, and I would love to see if we can get him closer to 30-1 in pool 3 and will be well worth the bet.

DORTMUND - Another west coast undefeated horse who is a perfect 4-4 including a nice start on the Churchill Downs Dirt back in November. The problem here is the complete lack of quality fields that he has faced thus far in his journey. His win in the beginning of February in the Robert B Lewis was impressive, but beating Firing Line and Rock Shandy just doesn’t boost my confidence in him. Connections have been pretty quiet on where they are pointing him next, but he will likely meet Ocho Ocho Ocho in the Santa Anita Derby in April. I would expect him to run again coming soon in the next couple of weeks as well. This is a colt that I feel will likely be over bet in pool 3 due to his undefeated record, and he could be the real thing, I just don’t know yet.

Honorable Mentions

TEXAS RED - The injury is the only reason he is not halfway up this list. He is coming off a 2^nd place finish in a tough 7f sprint that he would have won easily had he had any more distance. His win the in the Breeders Cup Juvenile was more than impressive, but the injury could keep him off the trail for a while and will likely need a 2^nd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby in April to have a shot at the field.

MR JORDAN - Who? Watch out for this horse in the coming months at Gulfstream. Undefeated in three impressive starts at two years old this horse may have had a more impressive 2-year old campaign than American Pharoah and just got back on the workout trail this week. Many sources say he is off the Derby trail, but we will see how he works out in the coming weeks. I wouldn't surprise to see him jump into the Bluegrass or another late prep race and try to sneak into the gates in May.

[Madison]

Your comments on Upstart and Carpe Diem would be appreciated.

[BGboothA]

Your comments on Upstart and Carpe Diem would be appreciated.

CARPE DIEM - Honestly, there is a good chance that American Pharoah should come off my list and Carpe Diem should go on it if I was really looking at things as of right now. I like Carpe Diem and he would clearly be the next horse on my list at this point. He worked a couple of days ago at Palm Beach Downs and will likely start in the Tampa Bay Derby on the 7th. The field for that one looks a little soft right now (that will likely change over the next couple of weeks) and he should bounce back well. At this point he has done nothing wrong, 2 wins in 3 starts and his only loss was to a monster race ran by Texas Red in the Juvenile. What gets lost in that run by Texas Red was the move that Carpe Diem made in some traffic to go from 8th to 2nd down the stretch. Pedigree is solid for the classic distance (I don't have my numbers in front of me, but they are good). Another positive note is that he has ran three good races on three different tracks, something I like to see in a horse that is going to have to run on the road at Churchill.

UPSTART - I will be honest, I don't know what to think of this horse. I think we can we can toss out the Fountain of Youth all together, there was something weird about that track last weekend. IT was a tarpit! Look at the final times the Holy Bull ran in 1:43.61 on the same track a month later the Fountain of Youth ran in 1:46.28 and it just looked funny all day long. Upstarts win in the Holy Bull looks nice but I am not sold on how good Frosted is and he came back to finish a distant fourth in the FOY. He was right next to Carpe Diem in the BC Juvenile, but I just don't think he ran as nice of a race as the other horses in that field. He will likley run in the Florida Derby at the end of March against a much higher quality field and that will tell us a lot.

[trytrytry]

ocho ocho ocho

[trytrytry]

look for Mr Jordan maybe in the PReakness..spoiler...

[boomer62]

It's amazing how fast time goes bye. Love the triple crown but still way too early to have a grasp on things yet. Have to start paying attention, appreciate the info!

[pick4player]

hey BGboothA do you got a app for that site? i mean the website is it app friendly

[Madison]

CARPE DIEM - Honestly, there is a good chance that American Pharoah should come off my list and Carpe Diem should go on it if I was really looking at things as of right now. I like Carpe Diem and he would clearly be the next horse on my list at this point. He worked a couple of days ago at Palm Beach Downs and will likely start in the Tampa Bay Derby on the 7th. The field for that one looks a little soft right now (that will likely change over the next couple of weeks) and he should bounce back well. At this point he has done nothing wrong, 2 wins in 3 starts and his only loss was to a monster race ran by Texas Red in the Juvenile. What gets lost in that run by Texas Red was the move that Carpe Diem made in some traffic to go from 8th to 2nd down the stretch. Pedigree is solid for the classic distance (I don't have my numbers in front of me, but they are good). Another positive note is that he has ran three good races on three different tracks, something I like to see in a horse that is going to have to run on the road at Churchill.

UPSTART - I will be honest, I don't know what to think of this horse. I think we can we can toss out the Fountain of Youth all together, there was something weird about that track last weekend. IT was a tarpit! Look at the final times the Holy Bull ran in 1:43.61 on the same track a month later the Fountain of Youth ran in 1:46.28 and it just looked funny all day long. Upstarts win in the Holy Bull looks nice but I am not sold on how good Frosted is and he came back to finish a distant fourth in the FOY. He was right next to Carpe Diem in the BC Juvenile, but I just don't think he ran as nice of a race as the other horses in that field. He will likley run in the Florida Derby at the end of March against a much higher quality field and that will tell us a lot.

Much appreciated. I had bet Cape Dem across the board in that 2d to Texas Red and was impressed

[BGboothA]

Updated after Gotham / Tampa Bay / San Felipe

Here we are sitting about 7 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby, we will likely see most of these contenders once may be twice more before they take the gate in Kentucky. After an exciting weekend last weekend with three and a half Derby prep races, let’s see what our top six look like now.

1. DORTMUND – I will be the first to admit, I was not high on this horse entering last weekend’s San Felipe Stakes, but he proved me wrong. He won and won going away and looked good doing it. Ocho Ocho Ocho was nowhere to be found in this race after being pinched pretty hard in the gate, but this was a quality field and Dortmund was clearly the best here. Dortmund will likely make his next start as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby and with 70 points already in the bank, he clearly has enough to find a spot in the gates on Derby Day.

1. INTERNATIONAL STAR – We have another couple of weeks to see this horse again in the Louisiana Derby at the end of March. This is a horse that has seem to have finally found himself and has looked great in his last two starts in the Risen Star and Lecomte.

1. FAR FROM OVER – Undefeated in two starts and his win in the Withers as simply amazing. It was hands down the best run we have seen from any horse looking for this field. I was kind of surprised that the connections decided to skip the Gotham and train straight for the Wood on April 4^th. With only 10 points he will have to have a good race against a high quality field at Aqueduct a month from now. But if he breaks well and then runs the same race he ran in the Withers he can win by 5+ lengths.

1. FAR RIGHT – Coming off two nice wins we will likely see FAR RIGHT next in the Arkansas Derby on April 11^th, giving him one more prep before he heads off for Kentucky. This is a horse that will really be tested for the first time against high quality competition in April, he has won and looked good, but hasn’t seem to beat anyone of note quite yet. Sitting with 22 points he likely needs to show in the money in Arkansas to find the gates in Kentucky, but if he runs up to his potential he should find his way into a gate without issue.

1. AMERICAN PHAROAH – Like most of the country, I am super excited to see what this guy can do this weekend in the Rebel, but unfortunately this is shaping up to be nothing more than a paid workout. Other than a Pletcher hopeful in MADEFROMLUCKY there really doesn’t seem to be any competition in this field. I am not sure what AP can show us that would prove that he is ready for the big boys this weekend. That being said, showing up and losing this race would throw this horse well off my list and force a good showing next time out.

1. EL KABIER – Another impressive winner last weekend in the Gotham, this time he switched up his style and rated just off the leaders and pulled away for an impressive victory. This is a horse that has won three of his last four, and his only loss was to an amazing over the top run from Far From Over which in my opinion makes EL Kabeir look even stronger. He will likely be pointing toward the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct but is currently in the lead with 75 derby points and clearly already has enough to qualify for a starting spot at Churchill.

Honorable Mentions

OCHO OCHO OCHO – Was loving this horse heading into last weekend’s San Felipe, he broke late and was pinched off and simply never recovered. There is still a great deal of talent in this horse, he was making his first race after an injury induced layoff. He will make his return in Santa Anita Derby and with a better start I still think he has a chance to put up a fight against Dortmund.
CARPE DIEM – Another nice win in the Tampa Bay Derby and he will easily have enough points to make the gate, but I still don’t know if he has beat anyone worth noting. We haven’t really seen a whole lot from the field of the BC Juvenile. And there was simply no body of note in the Tampa Bay Derby. To make matter worse, he is pointed toward the Blue Grass Stakes which at this point looks like a rematch between Carpe Diem and a bunch of nobody’s. We may not know who this horse really is until he runs against a real field in the Kentucky Derby.
MR. JORDAN – With Khozan out of the picture this is the horse that could make a late splash if he is ready to run in the Florida Derby. Obviously he will likely need to win the Florida Derby to get into the gates at Churchill. But this is still the horse that I am most excited to see make his 2015 debut. He is back on the workout trail, but we will have to wait and see.

[biggamerife21]

I thought prospect park was begging for more ground that he will get you can't look past him