[BGboothA]

1.HOPPERTUNITY - He was my derby run pick last year along with Samraat and I was really bummed when he was forced to scratch out of the 2014 Kentucky Derby. But he has been on a tear since coming back and hasn’t finished worse than 2^nd in his three starts this fall and winter, including back to back wins leading into this race. The rail should really help his trip and he will likely get the shortest trip of the bunch and will wait until the turn to make his move. I really like Hoppertunity in this spot and I think he has to be one to look at. With the other two big names in the field it will be interesting to see if we can get something like 4/1 or better out of this live shot here.

2.TONITO - Tonito is a solid horse who has won 7 of his 15 tries, but he has only managed to win once in a graded field in six tries. Simply put he seems outclassed here in this field. Looking back his two biggest numbers come from smaller tracks and he has never found his run on the big stages. The pace doesn’t set up well for him here as he will likely be near the rear of the pack trying to make a late run. The idea of him passing Hoppertunity, Shared Belief along with the others is just too big of job here. This will easily be a toss for me, I would be surprised to see him hit the board in this one.

3.YOU KNOW I KNOW - Some interesting numbers on this horse, his only 100+ Brisnet speed figure came on his last start here in Santa Anita in last years Awesome Again, of course he finished a distant back 8^th to some horse name Mucho Macho Man. He has made his 4 of his last 5 starts on synthetic and for some reason threw a OC75k turf race in the mix three back. The pedigree of this horse agrees that it is probably racing well above his level and should likely take two or three steps down, but simply doesn’t belong with this group. Easy toss for me and could be the least likely of the group to hit the board.

4.IMPERATIVE - After a trip to Japan that didn’t go as well as they had hoped, Imperative returns to the US and will make his first start this year here. He finished third to Shared Belief in august at Del Mar and I don’t see him coming close this time either. This an interesting horse that has some big races in him, he has a pair of 106 brisnet figures including a nice win over Game On Dude at Charlestown. But I still think he is going to need a miracle trip along with some help from others to get home. He could find a piece of the board though.

5.SHARED BELIEF - I would make the argument that this horse has never really been beat. He is 8 of 9 and I have to say that throwing out the BC Classic makes a lot of sense here as he was completely blocked from the start and still managed up for a strong 4^th place finish. Clearly the best of the bunch and has already won 4 grade 1 starts. Coming off a nice win in December at 7f, he has already shown that the distance isn’t going to be a problem. The only way Shared Belief loses here is another tough trip or if the pace allows someone to get loose on the front.

6.CLUBHOUSE RIDE - I can’t make an argument for why this horse is even in this field. He hasn’t ran a decent race in since last June. And that was a 6 length loss to Majestic Harbor. Pedigree shows that this horse should have some talent, but he hasn’t showed it recently. We are talking about a huge improvement in form just to be a factor in this race.

7.BRONZO - After a disappointing finish in the BC Mile Bronzo tried again at Santa Anita in the San Pasqual Stakes and failed to fire again, finishing 6^th more than 5 lengths off the back of Hoppertunity. This is a horse who has had a great deal of success in South America, but hasn’t shown the ability to move it up north in his last two attempts. If he finally fires he could be somewhere, but I don’t think even his best run puts him up front in this one.

8.CALIFORNIA CHROME - Horse of the year and our latest Triple Crown attempt will take on his first race of his new 4-year old campaign. A couple of quick things….first a big thank you to CC connections for running him in his 4-year old campaign. I don’t know how long it will last, but its great to see the top 3-year olds continue to race at four. That being said, California Chrome is home at Santa Anita where his only loss was to Bayern in the BC Classic. You can’t write him off here and I am looking forward to seeing how he gets after it this year.

9.ALFA BIRD - The untested colt will make his graded stakes debut against some solid company here to say the least. He has won two in a row coming into this race including an impressive 5 length win last time out. The impressive aspect of his last race is the splits he was able to put up from the front of the pack (22.6/46.4/1:10.16) and was still running well coming home at a 1 1/8 mile. That isn’t something that your average horse should be able to pull off even at Santa Anita. The outside post could kill him here and I think it really depends on the jump that California Chrome gets to his inside. If he can get by Chrome and get to the rail, he will have the opportunity to wire this field. I really think this is a win or come in near last type of race here.


MY PICKS

ALFA BIRD - The price that we might get here is going to be too good to ignore. With names like California
Chrome, Shared Belief and Hoppertunity in the field we could easily be staring at amazing post time odds on the horse who will most likely have the lead and the rail at Santa Anita. Those two facts alone make this horse worth playing. Add to the fact that he has already shown the ability to keep and win with a torrid pace, there is no question that this is the value of the race.

SHARED BELIEF - Quite simply there is likely going to be zero value in this play, if there is a chance at grabbing him 2/1 I will be all over it, but even with CC and Hop in the field I think we are looking a lot closer to less than even money here. You have to use him in the exotics and he is far and away the best horse in the field.

CALIFORNIA CHROME - If all things are equal I don’t see him anywhere near Shared Belief at the end of this thing, but the way the post draw fell and how CC got the outside post, he will likely have the first run at Alfa Bird and will have to be pushed out or passed by Shared Belief. Coming out of the turn I would expect these two to be right next to each other and if SB finds trouble it may be an easy win for CC.

[Madison]

Thanks BGA! Always appreciate your insight and help. I'm just playing for entertainment so anything you wish to share in the other races is appreciated. Good luck!

[BGboothA]

I am going to be taking a good look at the Withers and the Robert B Lewis this afternoon. I will post on here as well.

[BGboothA]

Here is our sheet for the race...HBD SAN ANTONIO

Hoppertunity is the computers top pick and I still love Alfa Bird for a value play. Alfa is sitting at a 55.4 point advantage in the early pace. He should get the rail and the lead without issue looking at that scenerio, the only question is if Imperative wants to jump out with him, but I don't think he will.

[BGboothA]