[TravisVOX]

Let's say you have a set of win probabilities for a race...

HORSE        PUBLIC    USER    OVER%
V. E. DAY    0.0410    0.072    76%
WICKED STRONG    0.2290    0.170    -26%
TONALIST    0.2290    0.210    -8%
KID CRUZ    0.0630    0.063    0%
MR SPEAKER    0.0970    0.114    18%
VIVA MAJORCA    0.0270    0.020    -26%
CHARGE NOW    0.0250    0.083    232%
ULANBATOR    0.0100    0.073    630%
COMMAND. CURVE    0.0400    0.036    -10%
BAYERN        0.2420    0.160    -34%

Let's say the user column was your probabilities of winning the race. The right column would be "overlay percentage" of each horse relative to the public's win percentage.

Obviously, overlays can carry a positive expectation if you account for odds. However, I'm not worried about that in this particular project. What I'm trying to do is balance the difference between the users odds and the users odds overlay percentage.

Said differently, the user thinks that Ulanbator is a tremendous overlay. However, he/she still thinks that Bayern is a more likely winner, despite being an underlay.

What mathematical and/or statistical techniques can be utilized to balance/merge/combine the user and over% columns to reach a logical win percentage or ordinal representation of the analysis.

One way I could do it is to rank each column then sum the rankings and order them. Then I thought, however, I might want to weight each of those columns differently... at which point I figured I would come on here and see if anyone had thoughts or insight.

PS -- Sorry for the hard to read text above... not sure what the "code" tags are for this software/forum.

[buby74]

Use the kelly criterion

[Martinr]

I would suggest that you google "favourite/longshot bias". You may get some ideas there.