Using 538s MLB elo data to bet game totals
So 538's MLB game projections (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ictions/games/) are done by calculating an elo score for each team, then adjusting each elo based on day-to-day variables like starting pitcher, stadium, rest since last game, etc. to arrive at a final elo for each team in each game. They then compare the elo values to project win% for each team. I want to try and use their adjustments to starting pitchers as an indicator of when to bet the under. Here is some research:
Plays for 4/23 based on information above
Braves - Reds under 8.5 (EVEN) Bovada
pitcher adjustments are +15 Gausman and +5 Gray
Rangers - Angels under 8.0 (-105) Bovada
pitcher adjustments are +8 Lynn and +9 Montas
What do you guys think?
