St. Bonaventure Bonnies -10
Seattle Redhawks -10
Chattanooga Mocs -8
Pittsburgh Panthers -5.5
Miami (OH) Redhawks -4.5
Grand Canyon Antelopes -4
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons -4
Air Force Falcons -3
Jacksonville State Gamecocks -2
Mississippi State Bulldogs -1.5
Campbell Fighting Camels pk
Massachusetts Minutemen +2
Western Carolina Catamounts +8
Delaware State Hornets +12.5
UT Martin Skyhawks +19
Eastern Washington Eagles +19.5
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks +20.5
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks @ Liberty Over 121.5
Morehead State Eagles N Kansas City Roos Over 128
Monmouth Hawks @ Cincinnati Bearcats Over 140.5
Winthrop Eagles @ Washington Huskies Over 147.5
Weber State Wildcats @ Dixie State Trailblazers Under 153
Yesterday: 12-10
ATS Record: 56-52
from now on, just going to list point differential by spread, not game score, which can be inferred.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies -10 (Loss by 20 = Lost Game by 10)
Seattle Redhawks -10 (Win by 7=Won Game by 17)
Chattanooga Mocs -8 Loss by 9
Pittsburgh Panthers -5.5 Loss by 15.5
Miami (OH) Redhawks -4.5 Loss by 16.5
Grand Canyon Antelopes -4 Loss by 1
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons -4 Loss OT by 12
Air Force Falcons -3 Win by 8
Jacksonville State Gamecocks -2 Win by 10
Mississippi State Bulldogs -1.5 Win OT by 9.5
Campbell Fighting Camels pk Win by 2
Massachusetts Minutemen +2 Win by 4
Western Carolina Catamounts +8 Loss by 20
Delaware State Hornets +12.5 Loss by 21.5
UT Martin Skyhawks +19 Win by 4
Eastern Washington Eagles +19.5 Win by 24.5
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks +20.5 Win by 8.5
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks @ Liberty Over 121.5 Win by 12.5
Morehead State Eagles N Kansas City Roos Over 128 Win by 4
Monmouth Hawks @ Cincinnati Bearcats Over 140.5 Loss by 20.5
Winthrop Eagles @ Washington Huskies Over 147.5 Win by 8.5
Weber State Wildcats @ Dixie State Trailblazers Under 153 Loss by 4
Chicago State Cougars +22
James Madison Dukes pk
Bucknell Bison -1.5
Alabama State Hornets +2
Norfolk State Spartans -5
Caifornia Golden Bears -2
Loyola (MD) Greyhounds @ Fairfield Stags Over 131.5
Wofford Terriers @ Georgia Bulldogs Over 140
Miami (FL) Hurricanes N Alabama Crimson Tide Under 151.5
Good work Snowy.
Mike Go post to your NFL thread
Yesterday: 6-3
ATS Record: 62-55
Chicago State Cougars +22 Won by 18
James Madison Dukes pk Won by 4
Bucknell Bison -1.5 Won OT by 7.5
Alabama State Hornets +2 Lost by 10
Norfolk State Spartans -5 Won by 4
Caifornia Golden Bears -2 Won by 6
Loyola (MD) Greyhounds @ Fairfield Stags Over 131.5 Won by 14.5
Wofford Terriers @ Georgia Bulldogs Over 140 Lost by 7
Miami (FL) Hurricanes N Alabama Crimson Tide Under 151.5 Lost by 9.5
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos -12
Saint Mary's Gaels -9.5
South Florida Bulls +6.5
Hampton Pirates +3.5
Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils +37
Grand Canyon Antelopes @ Loyola Marymount Lions Over 130
Tarleton State Texans @ Gonzaga Bulldogs Over 137.5
Wyoming Cowboys @ Cal State Fullerton Over 141.5
Notes to self: don't cap too early in the morning. be more skeptical of effort from players.
Yesterday: 3-6
ATS Record: 65-61
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos -12 Lost by 20
Saint Mary's Gaels -9.5 Won by 7.5
South Florida Bulls +6.5 Lost by 8.5
Hampton Pirates +3.5 Lost by 9.5
Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2 Lost by 5
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils +37 Lost by 2
Grand Canyon Antelopes @ Loyola Marymount Lions Over 130 Won by 20
Tarleton State Texans @ Gonzaga Bulldogs Over 137.5 Lost by 18.5
Wyoming Cowboys @ Cal State Fullerton Over 141.5 Won by 4.5
UNC Greensboro Spartans -4
Indiana Hoosiers -2.5
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles +5
Clemson Tigers -1
Creighton Bluejays -7.5
Duke Blue Devils -2
The OVER in the Duke game also looks promising.
It happens every year. Now we know the season is maturing... because home teams that showed nothing statwise are beating superior visitors. I really thought Duke had this one. Sizable lead all game so I stopped watching.
Nope. Clemson's stats were nothing like on paper. The Rutgers home crowd got to them. Indiana forced 2 OT's but never was in control of the game. Carrier Dome cheerleaders were too much. So it made for a bad night, but now is the time to take home court more seriously, especially for schools where the crowd shows up and puts pressure on them. Home Teams went 36-9 last night.
Another thing I'm going back to is capping before I see the line so it's not an influence. Only after I have my own number will I compare. Home court is worth about 5. In reality it can be worth double digits sometimes.
I don't think it's time to start lowering the number of bets yet, because more often than not, there is safety in numbers when the season is young.
Yesterday 2-4
ATS Record: 67-65
UNC Greensboro Spartans -4 Won by 11
Indiana Hoosiers -2.5 Lost 2OT by 4.5
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles +5 Lost by 12
Clemson Tigers -1 Lost by 11
Creighton Bluejays -7.5 Won by 17.5
Duke Blue Devils -2 Lost by 7
Last edited by Snowball; 12-01-21 at 09:01 AM.
I have wondered about how HCA might differ this season. You basically have two classes of players who have never played a true road conference slate in college. There will be a period of adjustment, but I'm not sure how long it lasts. Be careful though. This time of year you have finals and then Christmas break, which greatly reduces students at games. That said, I think we could see home court influence a lot of outcomes in early January as conference play gets going.
good points and there are probably 3 tiers of HCA by school support. To what degree Christmas Break drains home attendance I think would depend on geographical commute distances. Some places it actually gets more attendance, like in the Northeast where school commute times are very small. Other places I think your point is valid.Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy
I have wondered about how HCA might differ this season. You basically have two classes of players who have never played a true road conference slate in college. There will be a period of adjustment, but I'm not sure how long it lasts. Be careful though. This time of year you have finals and then Christmas break, which greatly reduces students at games. That said, I think we could see home court influence a lot of outcomes in early January as conference play gets going.
Dartmouth Big Green +12
Morehead State Eagles -5
Lehigh Mountain Hawks +11
South Carolina Gamecocks -6
USC Trojans -7.5
Central Arkansas Bears +33
Marshall Thundering Herd -1
Texas Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros -4
Seattle Redhawks -15
Wofford Terriers +3.5
Fordham Rams -6.5
Central Arkansas Bears @ Arkansas Razorbacks Under 153
Last edited by Snowball; 12-01-21 at 10:45 AM.
The Arkansas 97 point brush-up blew those two bets by a little. Disappointed in South Carolina. Marshall tight road loss.
Season still so young. Teams are getting better and getting worse. Some are improving and others are getting exposed.
Just have to hang in until the data we look at means more as the season progresses.
Yesterday: 5-7
ATS Record: 72-72
Dartmouth Big Green +12 Lost by 7
Morehead State Eagles -5 Won by 3
Lehigh Mountain Hawks +11 Won by 1
South Carolina Gamecocks -6 Lost by 30
USC Trojans -7.5 Won by 12.5
Central Arkansas Bears +33 Lost by 4
Marshall Thundering Herd -1 Lost by 3
Texas Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros -4 Lost by 10
Seattle Redhawks -15 Won by 1
Wofford Terriers +3.5 Lost by 12.5
Fordham Rams -6.5 Won by 15.5
Central Arkansas Bears @ Arkansas Razorbacks Under 153 Lost by 4
Everyone's an expert in hindsight, but one thing I have noticed over the years (but have zero data to back up) is that when high majors play these lower tiered schools and the lower tiered school likes to play fast, a lot of points get scored. That game ended with 83 possessions. The horrid FT shooting kept it closer to the total than the pace would have suggested. Not a critique, just an observation.
