djokovic/gulbis game total

under 37.5 -115

anyone else surprised by the game total? for a -800 favorite, i'm used to seeing a lower total, like maybe 35 games, based on the apparent lopsidedness of the matchup. seems like a steal when the under 3.5 sets is -120, and djokovic -1.5 sets is a brutal -400.

for conservative types, you can hedge:

under 37.5 games -115
hedged with:
over 4.5 sets +500

only way this fails is if it hits 4 sets and also goes to 38 games. a fair amount of 4 set and virtually all possible 3 set outcomes are covered by 37.5 games. or, you could hedge it with djokovic 3-2 at +600, since i doubt anyone on here really believes that gulbis can win in a 5th set.

I can see gulbis taking set 1, his serve speed this tournament has been equal or close to Raonic's but gulbis(when on) is a very impressive server. I think this match might be very tight

i confess that i haven't seen a lot of live play this tournament, but when i look at gulbis beating federer and berdych, i see him beating guys that aren't great defenders. in the combat sports business, it is said that "styles make fights." djokovic isnt really lightyears beyond federer on clay overall, but he brings a very different skillset to the table. i think gulbis is more apt to struggle and get frustrated against good returners and defenders. supporting evidence would be going 0-2 straight sets against ferrer on clay in 2014. he also lost to nishikori on clay. for the superstitious, hes "due" for a gulbis-esque underperformance now that he has overachieved for the reason.

Always consider 1st timers syndrome in Slam semis. Nerves can get even the hottest of players. The # almost seems like they based it on their 2008 French Open meeting. Books are shady like that.

wouldnt nerves support a lower total? thats what im saying. the under is the right play. seems like we are being given 2 or 2.5 extra games. djokovic could walk through this guy in 26 games.

Hmm, "walking" through Gulbis seems to be impossible atm. Unless he pulls a Ferrer and loses a tight set and then gets double-bageled after that. But I think he is mentally stronger than Ferrer, or at least he is crazy enough like Monfils to make a match out of this. 3+ sets seems pretty enticing.

dont know why anyone would take the sets over. gulbis, if he can win, wont do it in 5 sets. so that is out. you're basically left with gulbis 3-1, djokovic 3-1 and 3-2 as the only reasonable outcomes over 3.5 sets.

you'd be better off taking gulbis +2.5 set spread @ -135, which doesnt pay much worse, but gives you every possible outcome except djokovic 3-0

Im quite sure this will go over unless Gulbis beats Novak in straights just like he did beat Birdshit. There will be no 3-0 Djokovic that's for sure.

Novak is so overrated in this matchup. Yes, he can defend but so can Gulbis now, Yes he can attack but Gulbis right now is a better attacker. And mentioning this 1st-time-semis-thing simply will not apply to Gulbis. He is not gonna cry (like stupid Janowicz did) even if he wins Rafa in the finals. Yes, it's important thing for him, but it does not bother him and ALL the pressure is on those guys playing against him.

Also just like Birdshit, Novak was not yet tested in this tournament. He will be tomorrow, and for sure he will be surprised and i know he can raise his game at any time, but it might be just little too late.


So im saying over for sure and you can bet on ML Gulbis as well. Cause odds are simply so wrong...

Originally Posted by matt1216

I can see gulbis taking set 1, his serve speed this tournament has been equal or close to Raonic's but gulbis(when on) is a very impressive server. I think this match might be very tight

Yes, his serve is very good, but imho, not as good as Raonic's, at the moment. That is because it lacks some variaton. You really need that, when you are going against probably the best returner in tennis atm. Because you need to keep Novak on his toes, guessing which serve you are pulling next. If you are just going to bomb it, Novak will for sure find the way to break your serve. And that will not happen only once or twice...

What makes you think Gulby cant take a set, he's playing some of his best tennis lately, its not out of the question.

Also not a smart thought is to compare Raonic with Gulbis. As Milos's game is based on serve only, he moves a lot worse than Gulbis.
For sure it will help Gulbis if he serves high 1st serve % but this is not the main factor in the match-up.

As always it's the Unforced Error / Winners rate that will determine the Winner of this game.

Fuk is has a lot of talent
Beat some strong players already

It should be close

This seems like a spot where Djokovic steamrolls, but I've been wrong alot this tournament. Everyone drinking the Kool Aid for the opponent. Seems like it never winds up being as good as you think. Pass for me. Props might be something to look at.

Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36

This seems like a spot where Djokovic steamrolls, but I've been wrong alot this tournament. Everyone drinking the Kool Aid for the opponent. Seems like it never winds up being as good as you think. Pass for me. Props might be something to look at.

Your probably right EP. I've been sucked in by the Feddy win and the Bird man beat down. I'm also pressing to get back to break even for the tourney. Another risk is Gulbis losing his cool. Hasn't happened yet in the last few matches but doesen't mean it won't. If Gulbis is somehow able to come out and play like he played against bird dick I don't see that there is anything Joker can do to win in 3.

one of my bigger plays in awhile will be Gulbis +2.5 sets -115