HB you think there is value at Algeria ML, odds are 3.80?
(or maybe Algeria DNB..)
Hey HB. I am gonna break the tradition mention a tennis lean first: Vekic -3.5 vs Zvonareva looks interesting to me. It worries me that Vekic tends to drop a set here and there at 1-6 or so but I think Zvonareva who struggled mightily in the 1st round against a very low-ranked player is to out of shape to keep up with Vekic.
Anyway, onto the FIFA. Today was not a good day to put it mildly, but there is always tomorrow.
GER-USA is iffy but both teams will be happy with a 0-0/1-1 draw. I do not buy into all those grand statements by both coaches that both teams will be playing at the max speed tomorrow. If USA manages to avoid an early goal, I am leaning 0-0 1H and draw FG. If the game is drawn by ~65th min expect a standstill.
POR-GHA: Portugal has looked pretty bleak so far and I have no idea why they are the favs against the surging Ghana. Ghana +0.5/ML and over (gotta like the over with both teams expected to attack and an African defense being involved).
BEL-KOR: Belgium does not have that much to play for but I do not think Korea will see much of a ball against them. I expect a boring first half, again 0-0 1H seems to be interesting; the only thing that worries me is that the Korean D has been piss poor so far. But Belgians will be happy to control the ball and try to avoid injuries. They do need at least a draw to guarantee the 1st place and avoid the mighty Germans. Now, if USA somehow upsets Germany in the earlier game, a full time tank job from Belgium would become a distinct possibility.
RUS-ALG: Russia without star power and under Capello: need I say more ? I expect a cautious start from both teams with Russia trying to attack without much success, while keeping a watchful eye for the counters. But Algeria tends to run out of gas in the 2H and they might have blown their load in the last match. So again I am leaning 0-0 1H and maybe under FG. If the game is tied at HT, I think Russia will somehow manage to win it and possibly qualify, only to face the Germans.
Yeah, as I was saying earlier, I really like Algeria on this world cup as one of the most underrated teams. But, the problem is, already draw does the job for them. So, +0.5 might not be as juicy, but it is smarter play, imho. Good luck!Originally Posted by Marillion
HB you think there is value at Algeria ML, odds are 3.80?
(or maybe Algeria DNB..)
The line got bet up to -4.5, where I honestly doesn't see much value. Yeah, Zvonareva is not very good, but also, I don't think that it is very smart, laying 4.5 games, with the young player, which takes a lot of risk in her game and has a lot of ups and downs, of course... If you got -3.5, it was a good deal, but at curretn line, there is no value.Hey HB. I am gonna break the tradition mention a tennis lean first: Vekic -3.5 vs Zvonareva looks interesting to me. It worries me that Vekic tends to drop a set here and there at 1-6 or so but I think Zvonareva who struggled mightily in the 1st round against a very low-ranked player is to out of shape to keep up with Vekic.
Anyway, onto the FIFA. Today was not a good day to put it mildly, but there is always tomorrow.
GER-USA is iffy but both teams will be happy with a 0-0/1-1 draw. I do not buy into all those grand statements by both coaches that both teams will be playing at the max speed tomorrow. If USA manages to avoid an early goal, I am leaning 0-0 1H and draw FG. If the game is drawn by ~65th min expect a standstill.
POR-GHA: Portugal has looked pretty bleak so far and I have no idea why they are the favs against the surging Ghana. Ghana +0.5/ML and over (gotta like the over with both teams expected to attack and an African defense being involved).
BEL-KOR: Belgium does not have that much to play for but I do not think Korea will see much of a ball against them. I expect a boring first half, again 0-0 1H seems to be interesting; the only thing that worries me is that the Korean D has been piss poor so far. But Belgians will be happy to control the ball and try to avoid injuries. They do need at least a draw to guarantee the 1st place and avoid the mighty Germans. Now, if USA somehow upsets Germany in the earlier game, a full time tank job from Belgium would become a distinct possibility.
RUS-ALG: Russia without star power and under Capello: need I say more ? I expect a cautious start from both teams with Russia trying to attack without much success, while keeping a watchful eye for the counters. But Algeria tends to run out of gas in the 2H and they might have blown their load in the last match. So again I am leaning 0-0 1H and maybe under FG. If the game is tied at HT, I think Russia will somehow manage to win it and possibly qualify, only to face the Germans.
Problem with betting on GER-USA game, is that there is so many different scenarios, leading USA to the next round, even if they lose. I believe that Portugal has no chance to come into the second place, but we all overlooked Ghana, which is actually in better position. As you said, those statments by the coaches, who are saying that both teams will play normal, are BS. Germany will do anything to secure this first place, and avoid Belgium in R16, while USA would really like to stay in this 2nd place. Draw looks quite good to me.
POR-GHA. I completely agree. Portugal overrated. They were pathetic, so far in the competition and everybody is expecting them to make this final push for the 2nd place, in this game. Everybody is overlooking Ghana, which still has decent chance acctually. As you said, over and Ghana +0.5
BEL-KOR: Yeah, here we have to wait for the group G to end. Because Belgium is in great spot, to "choose" the opponent, if something strange happen in that group. Both of their games, have been super boring so far, so I don't think we will see many goals in this one, despite Korean defense being poor.
RUS-ALG: Another pathetic european team proceeding into the next phase, would be too much. Greece was lucky, Russia doesn't deserve it. Algeria showed that 11 of their man on the field are prepared to die for each other and are playing like a team. Russia has no anwser for that aggressive Algerian team. Anyway, at these odds, Algeria +0.5 is the only way to go. Good luck!
Scratch that Ghana +0.5 play. I just read that Muntari and Boateng got suspended from their national team, becuase some arrguing...
Of course this happens 5 minutes after I make a wager.. They just got $3 million shipped to them; spoiled brats..
Awesome 3rd round match coming up HB!!! Monfils vs Gasquet!!! Oh wait, no it isn't.... That match will be Vesley vs Kyrgios, LOL!!!
Try capping that shit fest, lol... BOL man, I hope all is well with you
Thanks for the heads up. I laid off most of my bet on GHA +0.5. Yeah, Ghana has just divided the money among the players and that probably means that they do not expect to advance. Plus the fighting (probably over who gets what). Still liking the over, although that line was really pounded: o3 moved from -110 to -150.
Suarez got suspended btw. The Colombia line did move from -165 to -175, but that happened even before the suspension was announced.
So USA has to beat Germany, don't they??
Not at all.. Draw gets them through for sure and a minimal loss would be enough unless Ghana wins. If Ghana and Portugal draw; USA gets through no matter what. If Portugal wins; as long as it's not blowout they should be safe because they have 5 goals to spare..So USA has to beat Germany, don't they??
What I mean is: For Portugal to advance, USA has to beat Germany, doesn't it?
No, they have a better chance to catch USA because Portugal would have 4 points and the loser of USA and Germany also 4 points. Then they would look at goal differential; since Germany has the best, Portugal's only chance is to destroy Ghana and hope Germany does the same to USA.What I mean is: For Portugal to advance, USA has to beat Germany, doesn't it?
Interesting. Thank you for the heads up.
Wow, the line jumped to -200 five mins my original post. Shoulda pounded it even more.Suarez got suspended btw. The Colombia line did move from -165 to -175, but that happened even before the suspension was announced.
