Honeybadger's picks

I see that Nguyen started his thread and I wish him well. Anyway, enough about that punk. I am back here for my daily dose of input about WC. Honeybadger, thanks a bunch for talking me out of going as big as I wanted on Spain. Once again they had a golden chance to open the scoring in the 1H but they blew it and then just fell apart. It actually was pretty sad to see. But Croates came through though both on the over and -0.5/-1, so it was all good.

Three games tomorrow, and I am not that confident in any of my leans, but here is what I think.

IC vs Colombia: I like over for the first game. Both teams seem to know how to score. And African teams traditionally do not defend that well; but on the other hand both teams might be happy with a draw so they might play cautiously. Hmm. I might also lean Colombia -0.5 due to the home crowd factor.

Uruguay-England: Suarez is supposed to play but I am not sure he will be 100%. On the other hand, England is not that good of a team on a big stage and I am not sure why they are favored to win by so much. I might lean Uruguay +.5.

As for the last game, I would not be underestimating the solidity of the Greece's bus. I think both teams will be cautious in the 1H, and I might play 0-0 1H, under 2/2.5 and maybe Greece +0.5. Yeah, Japan has talent but Greece can defend and if they keep the 1H scoreless they might outlast Japan. But I might be overestimating Greece here. I would say I do not like any of the above leans that much so I would appreciate your input.

Rybarikova -3 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
I feel that this line should be higher. Annika Beck is a talented player, but she doesn't have the game, which could produce big results on grass. She is more of a grinder, playing defensive tennis, far beyond the baseline. Also, her serve is pretty weak. Rybarikova on the other hand, had some decent success on grass in past. I am bit worried about her tendency for meltdowns in certain parts of the match, which could put the spread in danger, but I still believe that line should be closer to -4, so I gotta take it.

Chardy ML @2.22 Pinnacle - 2 units
I believe that I can recognize the trap line when I see one. Lopez @1.75 is just too good to be true, considering how he played in London and his style matching up well, against Chardy. When something like this happens, I usually just stay away. This time, I am going to back the side, which books doesn't want me to. Let's see what happens.

Crvena zvezda +3.5 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
Game 3 of the final series. At the moment, series are tied at 1. After the opening win by Zvezda, in front of Partizan's fans, Partizan managed to "return the favor" in game 2, winning by 20 points! Game was actually closer then the finals score, because Zvezda narrowed the gap to only 3 points, 6 minutes to go, but then they missed open three, on the other side Partizan scored and-one + Zvezda commited technical foul and that decided the game.
Why do I see value with Zvezda here? Well, Partizan is playing at home, but without their supporters. Arena will be empty, because of the suspension, for incidents in game 1. Also, Zvezda will get back heart and soul of this team - DeMarcus Nelson. He was suspended for game 1 (like Milutinov and Pavlovic on the other side), because of a huge brawl on the court. He means so much to this team, that it is difficult to put that into words. He is the only point guard and true leader. Without him, Zvezda looks like a bunch of donkeys on the court. With him on roster and without home crowd, putting additional pressure on the refferes, I think Zvezda wins this one.

Originally Posted by frugalgambler

I see that Nguyen started his thread and I wish him well. Anyway, enough about that punk. I am back here for my daily dose of input about WC. Honeybadger, thanks a bunch for talking me out of going as big as I wanted on Spain. Once again they had a golden chance to open the scoring in the 1H but they blew it and then just fell apart. It actually was pretty sad to see. But Croates came through though both on the over and -0.5/-1, so it was all good.

Three games tomorrow, and I am not that confident in any of my leans, but here is what I think.

IC vs Colombia: I like over for the first game. Both teams seem to know how to score. And African teams traditionally do not defend that well; but on the other hand both teams might be happy with a draw so they might play cautiously. Hmm. I might also lean Colombia -0.5 due to the home crowd factor.

Uruguay-England: Suarez is supposed to play but I am not sure he will be 100%. On the other hand, England is not that good of a team on a big stage and I am not sure why they are favored to win by so much. I might lean Uruguay +.5.

As for the last game, I would not be underestimating the solidity of the Greece's bus. I think both teams will be cautious in the 1H, and I might play 0-0 1H, under 2/2.5 and maybe Greece +0.5. Yeah, Japan has talent but Greece can defend and if they keep the 1H scoreless they might outlast Japan. But I might be overestimating Greece here. I would say I do not like any of the above leans that much so I would appreciate your input.

You are very welcome, Frugal! I am glad that my previews, help you make the correct decision. You were right about the Croatia yesterday. You and Zec, convinced me to trust them again. I took them -1. It was not a big bet, but win is a win. So, thank you guys!

So, for today... Colombia-Ivory Coast sounds like a good one, on paper. In terms of value, I have to lean towards africans and I am probably going to make them my official play later. Despite that 3-0 opening win, I was not impressed by Colombia against Greece. It might sound crazy, but I felt like that. I am aware of the fact, that Greece can make every match, extremly boring and you then have problems with assesing the real abilities of the team. Colombia was very lucky to score a goal, early, because it forced Greece to open up a bit and play out of their comfort zone. I expected much more flair and attractive football from them, but I was not satisfied. Actually, when the game was going towards the end, there was a lot of nonchalance in their game and that is not how I want a team to behave on a such a big competition, like this one. Center midfield seems vulnerable and that should be a problem. With Guarin returning that should improve slightly, but I still think not good enough, to win that battle against Yaya Toure. Anyway, I think that these two teams should be even, while we can get Ivory coast +0.5 @1.85 . Great value in my eyes.
Speaking of o/u. At first, I liked over as well. As you said, both teams can score and Ivory coast has iffy defense. But still, looking at the situation in this group, make me believe that we will see more careful approach from both teams in this game. They both have 3 points in their bag already and they are not forced to risk too much in this one.

Uruguay-England. I didn't expect to see England as such favorite. Uruguay went from overrated to underrated in just one game, in my eyes. They lost to Costa rica. But, they are aware that both England and Italy are beatable. England played well in first game. As I said back then, they need another central midfielder to go with Gerrard, while Welbeck on the wing is not a good idea. If Hodgson realized that and he will not be too stuborn to change something, they could be dangerous here. I even heard some rumours that Rooney might be benched. Anyway, in this one, I would wait for the starting lineups to be announced. If Suarez will play, Uruguay +0.5 is definitely a play, which holds value. That is a player, which can strike, out of the blue sky. Very valuable player for his team. If he is not playing, then I might pass one this one. Especially if England comes out with players like Sterling, Sturridge, Barkley,

We mostly agree on the last one. As I mentioned after the first game, if Grecce manages to keep their net untouched for the first 30 minutes of the game, they are becoming more and more comfortable. But, when you want to beat that parked buss, you have to have a good play makers in that attacking midfield. To get the ball between the defnsive line and midfield and then rely on their individual quality, to threaten the opposing goalkeeper. Not that Japan has one. They have two such players in Honda and Kagawa. That being said, I don't see any value on one side or the other, at current odds. It seems like Greece is going to play with pretty much the sam squad , like against Colombia, and I don't like that. Their starting lineup does not pose any threat to opposing defense. Ball travels way too slow in midfield. Samaras is useless on the wing and Gekas is 200 years old. Fetfatzidis, winger, who entered in the second half, brought that much needed spark into their team and if he starts today and Samaras moves to forward, that would look much better imho. But, according to some preditictions, the lineup will stay the sam and I can't see them scoring, against well organised Japan... Good luck with your bets!

Ivory coast +0.5 @1.85 Pinnacle - 4 units
As I wrote above, I think these two teams should be evened up, so I have to take the african team at these odds. Colombia bit overrated, because of that big win in first round, but they will have much tougher task in this one. Even with Guarin in the team, they will probably lose the battle in the midfield, while Ivory coast's attack, looks like they can score every time they want. Wilfired Bony is a big threat in the box, every time he gets the ball, and I was not that surprised that he got adventage over Drogba in first game.

I haven't seen this much action on points in a long time, I am posting where lines are moving; don't want to take too much of your time; simply say lean one way or other or if you agree, don't need to analyze why or why not..
Jenkins under 14.5 heavy lean
Lauvergne under 12.5
Tepic under 8.5
Small movements on Pavlovic under 13.5 and Marjanovic under 9.5.
All unders, maybe because of the suspended players coming back, people anticipating points to be spread. But man Lauvergne scored 26 in the first one, not sure about the second one, just don't see how that one makes sense..

You know that I simply can't say where am I leaning, without explaining why

Jenkins lean to the under, because this is too high of a line. He is a streaky scorer. He can drop 20+ on anyone, when he is hot, but the line should be somewhere around 12, imho.

I wouldn't dare going with under on Lauvergne. In Zvezda, Radenovic is the only guy who can defend Lauvergne and he got injured last game. It is unceratin if he is going to play or not. Mitrovic is physicaly not strong enough to battle for position in the paint with Lauvergne, while Dragicevic is simply a poor defender.

After being pretty productive recently, Tepic cooled of a bit in this final series. It seems like, he got a completely new role here, where he is more focused on setting their team mates up for the shots, then him taking those himself. Lean to the under.

Pavlovic's line is just about right. It could go either way. While for Marjanovic, I will going to lean towards over. In first 2 games, it was ridiculos, how quickly he got into foul troubles. Zvezda put a lot of pressure on refferes, for this game, to be more careful about calling fouls on Marjanovic. Becuase, it was unbeliavable, how quickly, they called fouls on him, while other way around, he got beaten up in the paint, like a dog and refferes did nothing to protect him. After Zvezda's officials called out refferes on this situation, like this, I believe they will adjust criteria a bit, for Marjanovic, calling it more fair in this game. That can only mean one thing. Partizan centers, need to watch out!

Thanks, Also one guy I follow played Blazic over 11.5. Would you agree with that?

Originally Posted by zec

Thanks, Also one guy I follow played Blazic over 11.5. Would you agree with that?

I would. Always playing on his highest level in every game against Partizan. Always first one running the fast break. Good slasher, solid shooter.

btw, I checked one of your locals, to see what else they are offering. I am bit surprised to see Bertans at 12.5 . I feel he should be much lower. Since he came back after knee injury, he is not the same player anymore. Doesn't score the threes in that high percentage anymore and that is pretty much only thing he can do. Not to mention that he is backup to Pavlovic at SF position and also, every time when he is on court, Simonovic covers him and he does it really well.

Btw, can you open psk website? It's been down for me the whole week but I am out of the country so I don't know if that has something to do with it and no one from psk is responding to my emails but one guy on Facebook said it started working for him..

Yeah, that was one of the sites, were I checked the lines. It worked fine, for me...

Ok works for me now too, didn't this morning, cheers!!

So how about Ivory ML or draw then?

Also, have you considered the effect that the meteorological conditions will have on the two teams?

Originally Posted by Hardcoar

So how about Ivory ML or draw then?

Also, have you considered the effect that the meteorological conditions will have on the two teams?

Both options sound ok. Still, I think +0.5 is the best option. It is covering both the draw and Ivory's win. And you are getting decent odds for it.

I didn't to be honest. I don't see any special informations, which would be important enough, to factor it in.

Well for instance, one might imagine that Colombians will be more used to the humidity and air pressure. Whether that has an effect or not, I wouldn't know.