Peng @ 2.7 and Evans @ 2.55 both seem high to me.
Peng just won Roland Garros so she couldn't've been that whoreshit, plus Vesnina is always a good fade. What's not to like at these odds besides bitches defending??
Last edited by Hardcoar; 06-16-14 at 07:08 AM.
I can understand the odds for Peng. She was not that great in singles lately + Vesnina is a defending champion. But Evans is suspiciously high, to me.Originally Posted by Hardcoar
Peng @ 2.7 and Evans @ 2.55 both seem high to me.
Peng just won Roland Garros so she couldn't've been that whoreshit, plus Vesnina is always a good fade. What's not to like at these odds besides bitches defending??
I agree there's more "reason" to Peng's odds. I just mean I find both high at the given values. Obviously you agree personally to some extent. In my opinion it's a July-miracle that Vesnina ever won anything in her life.
Evans absolute whoreshit. Kamke rock solid. Tough shit. -7.5 was the obvious pick after all.
Cepelova line seems very trappy.
Yeah, Kamke impressive today. Commited very few errors and ran down pretty much every single shot, which Evans threw at him.Evans absolute whoreshit. Kamke rock solid. Tough shit. -7.5 was the obvious pick after all.
Cepelova line seems very trappy.
Bitches f*cking bitches up... what else is new??
First bitch to hold loses. This is the WTA after all.
Thanks for taking the time to respond to my soccer questions with detailed writeups. There have been no 0-0 first halves at this WC, which is crazy. I feel like Germany-Portugal and Iran-Nigeria are excellent matches to break that spell. In the first one, I think both teams will be very cautious early on, while in the second one Iran will probably park the bus and Nigeria does not seem to have real talent up front. Also, liking the over in the USA-Ghana match. Let's see how it goes.
LOL. Another early PK. That one was probably deserved. I dunno if it is the air in Brazil or what, but even the best defenses look like Jamaica's defensive line.
Hey man. I am going to take some more space in your thread, if you do not mind (if you do, let me know). I appreciate your soccer writeups and I wanted to bounce some ideas off you.
Brazil-Mexico. I was surprised to see the line so low for Brazil. Yeah, Mexico looked decent against Cameroon, but Cameroon is probably the bottom three team this year, along with Nigeria and Iran. And Mexico did not really dominate that game. Brazil got their first important win against a tricky opp and I expect them to win by 2+ goals in a more relaxed manner. It would also help if Hulk is injured and will not play. So I like Brazil -1/-1.5.
I have looked into Group H quite a bit because I follow the Russian league pretty closely and I already have a decent-sized futures bets on Belgium to win the group. I also think that Korea might finish last and Algeria might possibly produce a surprise and qualify. The Russian squad is made only of players from the domestic league and so far none of the "star" players from that league looked that great on other squads (Noboa, Musa, Emmenike, Hulk, a couple of Portugese, etc.). On the other hand, Korea looked very hapless just before the WC. They run fast and are pretty athletic, but they lack finesse to score. Russians lost their best offensive midfielder and they have no great strikers on the team (just like Korea). So I am leaning under2/2.5 and 0-0 1H for Russia-Korea. I think both teams will play a defense first game and will struggle to score.
Belgium-Algeria: Belgium is loaded with talent although they lack the big-stage experience (just like Brazil). On the other hand, Algeria has a pretty decent roster, seems to like attacking and it looks like they can score. I am liking o2.5 in that one.
I hope you'll have time to share your opinion. GL with your picks.
Last edited by frugalgambler; 06-16-14 at 10:44 PM.
Lepchenko +3,5 @1.91 Pinnacle - 2 units
With Zhang reaching semis last week in Birmingham, she instantly became overvalued imho. Imagine, not factoring in, that result. I believe that in such case, Lepchenko would be the favorite. That being said, these odds are overreaction to the results from last week. Value with the underdog.
Duque Marino ML @4.33 Pinnacle - 2 units
I have a hunch that this south american, should do just fine on grass, and should not be such an underdog. She has very good serve and good ball striking.
Giraldo ML @2.04 Pinnacle - 2 units
Nieminen did play well, last week in Queen's club. But, he got injured as well. He started to train at 100% just recently. Worrying about recent injury, on a slippery grass, less then a week before Wimbledon, could be a serious distraction.
@frugalgambler
We have identical thoughts, on how will things end up in group H. Belgium is too strong. South Korea doesn't seem to have quality, like in previous world cups. Russian are their own worst enemy. They have some decent players, but I expect them to shoot themselves in the foot, somewhere. So, Algeria might sneek into the second place. I've seen them play in African cup of nations, last year and they played some good football. So, Belgium, Algeria, Russia and South Korea is my prediciton.
Speaking of today's games... Belgium has a mean squad, on paper. World class players, on every single position, except those full-backs, where they will put probabyl some centre-backs, which will play out of there position. Vertonghen or Vermaelen are predicted to start on the left side. That might not sound like a big deal, but it could make quite a difference. That position is not very easy to play. If you have great players there, you cna provide a very good support to your attack. But, if there play guys, who are naturally centre-backs, I don't know how much can they help on offense. Also, centre-backs are not used of playing in space, running around, chasing quick opponent's wingers... Also, Belgium has world class team, but zero experiance in such competitions. That is an important factor, to consider
That all being said, value is definitely with Algeria, at these odds. I am just little bit worried about them being too attacking minded. Because, against a team, which have Hazard, Mirallas and Lukaku, threatening from counter-attacks, there is no room for mistakes. But, since they have very experianced coach, they should be fine, in terms of tactical discipline. Also, slight lean to the over, but not too excited about this line, which is at 2.75 at the moment.
Russia-South Korea. I don't think that this is the game, where Russia will shoot themselves in the foot, but also, I am definitely not trusting them enough, to back them at these odds. I would lean toward the under as well. South Korea lacks talent, while Akinfeev is pretty solid, between the posts. On the other side, Russia also doesn't have great strikers. Kerzakov is their option for almost a century now. Him and Gekas seems like competing, who is going to play longer for their national teams. Combined, they are like 500 years old, now...
Brazil-Mexico. I can see you leaning toward Brazil covering the spread. I disagree there. It is not that low, for no reason. This Brazilian team is not build, to play their traditional football. It is built in Scolari's way, to have tactical discipline, strong defense and to win tournaments like this one. Even if the price is to play boring. Think about this. They scored 3 goals in the opener. How where they scored? One from he penalty. Other one from the shot 25 meters away, and the third one, after a obvious foul in the midfield, quick counter and not good reaction from Pletikosa. Those were not very well built attacks, imho. And how many good opportunities to score, did they have beside those goals? Not many. AT least I don't remember them.
On the other side, Mexico was way better then Cameroon. But they looked way better then they really are, imho. Cameroon didn't put any pressure on their passing game, and they were able to do whatever they want with the ball. That will not be possible in this game and I didn't see enough qulity up front, that they could make their way, through that tough defensive midfield and defense, which Brazil has.
I think that under/over line is too high. under 3 is my play here and a prediction 1-0 for the correct score. Good luck!
Brazil/Mexico under 3 @1.79 Pinnacle - 3 units
As I wrote above, this line is way too high. This Brazilian team is not built to play attractive football and score bunch of goals, but to get the job done, at any cost. Mexico will probably have their little finals against Croatia in next round, which should decide, who is getting the spot in next phase. It would be crucial to get some kind of adventage over Croatia before that game, so 1 point from this game, would be huge. They will probably park the bus and do everything defensively to keep their net untouched. Can they succeed? I am not sure, but I definitely don't give them much chances to scre themselves. Correct score 1-0, or 2-0.
Thanks for the reply. We seem to agree on most points, just a couple of thoughts. I think Croatia played really well in the opening match while Cameroon did not really test Mexican defense, which therefore appears more solid than it is. In short, I am still liking Brazil to win by 2+ goals. Hulk might not start which should improve Brazil's chances. But, I might put a little on 0-0 1H, just in case the Mexican bus proves to be more solid than I think. As for Russia, I do not think Kerzh will be starting today. I think Kokorin will be their starting option, he is a bit more talented than Kerzh but still he is not a world-class scorer.
Also, I am seeing Spain to qualify @-110, and I think those are good odds. All they have to do it beat Chile and expect Holland not to lose to Chile. I think that will happen with more than 55% probability. Portugal is +110 which is also a nice line I think.
