Honeybadger's picks

Originally Posted by kenz

Guys how do you stand soccer?

Dont get me wrong I am 32 and was playing on school team in middle-school, I was a sweeper and used to love soccer but did not play/want to play for 5-6 years.

After the ridiculous pace of tennis soccer is impossible for me to watch unless there is Real Madrid or Bayern of 2012

Bro, if your intention was to brag about your football/soccer skills, then you should not reaveal that information (the one, which I put into bold).

ps. Just joking with you

Yes there seems to be some sharp guys here and informative analysis.


Anyways I bet big but seldomly. (I actually value money)
So I won't be able to contribute as much as other posters.

But when I do have a pick I'll let you know.
Strangely I'm most likely onto a winner when it gets howled down with derision..



Thanks for your kind words. Appreciate it mate!

Originally Posted by Honeybadger44

Bro, if your intention was to brag about your football/soccer skills, then you should not reaveal that information (the one, which I put into bold).

ps. Just joking with you

No my intention was to express I am not an American who bashes soccer

Originally Posted by NguyenImproved

9-19 players?

I see your maths is not great for a sports better. Maybe I can help.
Seeing as he is ranked 4.
That means Only 6 other players need to be better than him to justify my ranking of him being 10th-20th best.

On grass in best of five I'd put: Raonic, Gulbis, Nishikori, Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer, Isner
AT LEAST better than him.

We all agree I assume that Murray, Nadal and Djoker would leave him for dust.

Anyway it's good to have you all overvalue him.
As I guess you haven't learnt making money from betting is best done when the majority are wrong.

I love popular opinions based on historical records and not present day facts.


Seeing Fed as a great is like comparing Ancient Greece to the bankrupt nation it is now.

Gulbis and Birdshit you could make a case for, Ferrer and Wawrinka are nibbling at his feet at best. Federror is far more consistent than Both Gulbis and Birdshit though, and you are quite incorrect if you think he doesn't belong in the top then.

Hey man did you see the end of today's match? Guy didn't even know he won..

His new nick needs to be Forget-erer.


It doesn't matter if those players are OBJECTIVELY better than Fed on grass (and I think they ARE).
The odds you get will almost ALWAYS outstrip their actual chances of success.

Eg. Even if Ferrer is only 40/60 to beat Fed the odds you get will be nowhere near that. People need to stop getting hung up on who's 'better'. I mean this is a sports-BETTING forum. Not a tennis fan forum. Angles need to be found. Otherwise we're just back to discussing comic book scenarios.

Anyways each to their opinion. I'm not here to convince you. Just take it if you can use it and pass on if you disagree.
Betting against weakened "premiums" is an effective strategy but actually still requires the majority of people to believe in the power of that "premium" player as a betting proposition.

So the more people who over-value and support Federer the better for me I guess.

Lopez +2,5 @1.97 Pinnacle - 3 units
I am bit surprised to see Lopez priced this high, for this match. Overall, Dimitrov is a better player. But, considering how well Lopez played his last two matches, and how confident he is at the moment, I think that the fair price should be smoewhere between 2.05-2.20 for the ML and not 2.75, where it is, right now.
His serve was doing a lot of work for him. In this match, his wide serve, from the AD side, should get him out of troubles in crucial points, because Dimitrov should really struggle to do something against it, with his one handed backhand. Also, I noticed that Grigor was struggling to find the right footing this week. That might be extremly important, because Lopez plays with so much variation, that ability to change directions without problems, is very important.

Originally Posted by NguyenImproved

Hey man did you see the end of today's match? Guy didn't even know he won..

His new nick needs to be Forget-erer.


It doesn't matter if those players are OBJECTIVELY better than Fed on grass (and I think they ARE).
The odds you get will almost ALWAYS outstrip their actual chances of success.

Eg. Even if Ferrer is only 40/60 to beat Fed the odds you get will be nowhere near that. People need to stop getting hung up on who's 'better'. I mean this is a sports-BETTING forum. Not a tennis fan forum. Angles need to be found. Otherwise we're just back to discussing comic book scenarios.

Anyways each to their opinion. I'm not here to convince you. Just take it if you can use it and pass on if you disagree.
Betting against weakened "premiums" is an effective strategy but actually still requires the majority of people to believe in the power of that "premium" player as a betting proposition.

So the more people who over-value and support Federer the better for me I guess.

That I generally agree with. I don't agree that's what you initially said though; You were talking very specifically about objective rank, as far as I could tell. My point is this: What you first said has nothing to do with odds or their perceived value.

Hey man. What do you think about WC tomorrow ? I do not know any of the six teams involved that well, but being the junky I am, I expecting a low-scoring game in ECU-SWI, a bashing by Argentina, and a struggle by France without Riberi vs the super-defensive Honduras. So I am thinking along the lines 1H draw for ECU and HON games, and Argentina -1.5 vs Bosnia. Also, Ana is supposed to cover 5+ games vs the balling BZS, will she do it ?

Originally Posted by frugalgambler

Hey man. What do you think about WC tomorrow ? I do not know any of the six teams involved that well, but being the junky I am, I expecting a low-scoring game in ECU-SWI, a bashing by Argentina, and a struggle by France without Riberi vs the super-defensive Honduras. So I am thinking along the lines 1H draw for ECU and HON games, and Argentina -1.5 vs Bosnia. Also, Ana is supposed to cover 5+ games vs the balling BZS, will she do it ?

Speaking about Ivanovic-Zahlavova match, I don't have any strong argument for one side or the another. Line is high enough to bet the dog, I guess, but then again, Ana is playing on a high level as well. If I would be considering bet on Zahlavova, I would ask myself: What will happen, if she starts slow? Or maybe, if she doesn't get so many first servs in, like yesterday? Or, if she keeps it close for some time and then lose few crucial points, which will cost her first set? Is she mentally strong enough to bounce back after that? She seems bit of a lunatic to me. So, I would lean to the anwser - no. You need a strong effort, from the underdog, throughout entire match, to cover such spread for you and I don't believe Zahlavova can/will do that. If she falls behind. She will get down on herself, for every mistake. Her serve will not be as great and she will commit more unforced errors.
That being said, I am not thrilled about that one, but it is your call in the end. I am staying away from that one.

World cup. I am probably making Switzerland my official pick later. They are my "dark horse" of the competition and I think I am getting some nice value with these odds here. Not impressed with Ecuador's squad on paper. Pretty old defense. Their strength seems to be on the wings, but Switzerland has the full back to contain them, on that part of the pitch.Why I like this bet, is that Ecuador is missing Segundo Castillo. Midfielder, not a big name, but does a lot of (dirty) work for them, which is very important in midfield. And I am also hearing that the other central midfieler Noboa, is not at his 100%, speaking of his fitness.
I liked your yesterday thinking about Costa Rica, but I am not sure about Honduras today. Of course, you are always paying a premium price, when taking big name like France, against nobody (Honduras), but I think that France has the team this time, to back that up and they have been playing well lately. They suffered a humiliation in South African republic, 4 years ago, when there was very poor chemistry inside the team. But it seem that coach Deschamps, found out the links, which were causing the rebellion, back then, and excluded them. I am talking primarly about Samir Nasri. Great player, but he is not on the list, probably because of the reason, which I wrote above. France has a great team and I don't see problems for them in this one.
Argentina-Bosnia is an intriguing one. I don't really know, what to think about it. I am afraid that Bosnian coach will decide to defend and that will be mistake, because they doesn't have the squad to pull it off. They have a lot of great players in midfield and attack, while defense seems to be their weakness. That being said, Argentina covering the spread, or the over 2,5 total goals, are the leans for this one. Good luck!

Sousa ML @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
It seems to me that the odds are wrong, becuse of people perception about Sousa being a clay court specialist. Well, If I can recall it correctly, he made a breakthrough on the tour, with some good results on asian fast hard courts and few indoor tournaments. So, he can really play on fast surfaces. Also, last week caused an upset against Struff in Halle and stole a set from Federer. This is a first grass court tournament for Reister this year. I would bet this one with more units, but I am affraid with Sousa being 1st seed, and being first in the line for lucky loser spot.

Switzerland - 0,25 (AH) @2.07 Pinnacle - 5 units
As I wrote in my previous post, I think highly of this Swiss team. Ecuador has an old defense and some problems with injuries in the midfield.

When did JC118 turn into a douchey ass troll? Did I miss something?

Bosnia's coach has said they'll play very aggressively in every match regardless of the opponent.

Good call on Flopez, too bad he flopped on the MP and then up 4-2 in the 3rd set. Swiss however look pretty bad early on. Just no quality on offense. Not that Ecuador is much better but they are up 1-0.

Good call on Sousa, very easy win

Originally Posted by Marillion

Bosnia's coach has said they'll play very aggressively in every match regardless of the opponent.

They all say that before the game

Originally Posted by frugalgambler

Good call on Flopez, too bad he flopped on the MP and then up 4-2 in the 3rd set. Swiss however look pretty bad early on. Just no quality on offense. Not that Ecuador is much better but they are up 1-0.

Yeah, I had little bit on ML as well. Too bad he couldn't get it done. But, the main thing was that he cover the spread.

Swiss have quality on offense, but they look compeltely disconnected at the moment. They are not fluid enough in the passing game, to get through Ecuadorian defense. They seem very tensed, so I hope their coach will find way to calm them down a bit in the half time. But yeah, so far, they didn't look good at all.

Originally Posted by kenz

Good call on Sousa, very easy win

Thanks man!