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Honeybadger's picks

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#361

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I am not sure I get the idea of a solid baseliner doing good on grass. And Ferrer has no serve. The only year Ferrer played good on grass was 2012 but he still could not serve enough to bother top 3-4 players and still lost to Murray from 1-0 and 5-4 serving for 2nd set. And that year he was great. This year he is shaky.
Glad you cashed 5K on Stanimal beating injured Nadal.
With everyone pretty much shitty or close to shitty or not impressive for the first time in years (Novak, Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga, Wawrinka, Nadal, Berdych...) Federer has a chance but he has new twins a month ago now he is a father of 4.
This is his best chance to win a slam with everyone shitty but not sure he is up to it. Still I would not trust Ferrer, Raonic or Isner to beat him at all. Maybe Gulbis but he is not a good grass-courter.
BOL in your plays
#362

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What he's writing is just complete trash kenz.

Quote Originally Posted by NguyenImproved View Post
On grass in best of five I'd put: Raonic, Gulbis, Nishikori, Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer, Isner
AT LEAST better than him.
On that list, the only player IN THEIR CURRENT FORM I would consider putting in front of Fed on Grass in a best of 5 @ Wimbledon is.














































Nobody.
#363

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Thanks man.

Well firstly I must defend myself and say I think Nadal's 'injuries' have always come with disclaimers. I mean he was serving at 120kph in the third set when it was done and dusted and then amps his serve up to 180-190 again in the LIVE 4th set.
Gamesmanship? He's a winner and winners take every advantage. I have no moral qualms with it if that's what he feels he needs for an edge.

To my mind he is a master tactician and I admire that but I think an athlete would be a lot more hindered by a serious back injury.
He was playing at 90+% in the 4th.
Anyways I was sweating bullets when it looked like he was going to forfeit so I'm glad he 'toughed it out'.

Yes this year hasn't been a bumper crop in terms of stars dominating but I think people have been spoilt by certainty in the Fed/ Nadal era. Today's players are closer and there's way more variance in performance levels since they don't stand head and shoulders above their peers.

Thanks for going easy on me mate! I do know a lot of my theories collide head on with popular opinion.
That's usually a sign I'm on the right track.

Anyways I don't wanna hog this guy's great thread so I'll call it a night.


Keep it up man. I like perusing your posts. You should add an avatar to make it easier to see which posts are yours though!
#365

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Quote Originally Posted by Honeybadger44 View Post
Didn't find any good value in these lines, but here are my thoughts.

From group C, I have Colombia and Japan proceeding to the next phase, so obviously, I like them today as well.

Colombia will miss Falcao for sure, but they have 4 great strikers, behind him on depth chart (Bacca from Sevilla, Ramos from Hertha, Martinez from Porto and Guttierez from River Plate). Of course, they are not like Falcao, but still very good. Also in other positions, their team looks pretty strong, especially on the flanks with Armero and Rodriguez on on side and Zuniga and Cuadrado on the other side. That is why I am leaning their side, but I am not too thrilled about the odds. Greece play super boring football, but very disciplined at the same time. I don't like their football very much, and from what I was reading, their midfield is not that great in destructing opponents game, like it was, back in the days. That is important information, because that is huge part of their game. Mitroglu was great in Olympiacos, but since he trasfered to Fulham, he only played like 2-3 games there. And he is their starting striker. Also, don't know if Samaras can play at his best on the wing. We will see. As I said, lean toward Colombia, but not great value in the odds.

I like your thinking about Uruguay game. Suarez is out. They have a good team, but I feel they are bit overhyped, because of Cavani-Suarez duo up front. Costa Rica will obviously have very defensive minded approach and that 1H draw, does not seem like a bad option.

Italy-England is a big question mark. I don't like England's predicted starting line up. Just don't trust Henderson in the centre of the midfield, while Welbeck on the wing is not a great idea as well, imho. I can see Italy dominating the midfield in the first half with Pirlo, De Rosi and Veratti. Probably scoring an opening goal. And then England will probably rely on their young guns from the bench, like Sterling and Barkley, adding some flair to their game in second half, scoring an equalizer.

Ivory Coast-Japan. As I said, I like Japan. They always had the tactical discipline in the game and played like a team. I think that at the moment, they finaly have some individual quiality as well, to get through to the next phase.
Ivory coast has few big names on their team. But I saw few of their friendly games. Their defense was hilarious against Bosnia, few days ago. Midfielders not being careful with the ball in that dangerous area, 35 meters, in front of their goal. Defenders bmping into each other, when trying to make a play... Kolo Toure was once a very good player. But at the moment, I don't trust him, comanding their defensive line. Up front, they are loaded with talent, but if they will fail to back it up with some team play, Japanese will upset them. Good luck!
Thanks a lot for the reply. I laid off my Greece +0.5 and actually made some money by taking Colombia 3-0. Another questionable call by the ref on the pk against CRica. I mean, it was a foul but there are fouls like that one on every other corner. There was a clear foul on the last corner by Costa Rica but the ref did not call it: the Uruguayan defender was basically hanging on the Costa Rican who was trying to get a header going. I dunno if it is the heat or what but the pace looks pretty sluggish. Well, Greece was horrible anyway. There have been three pretty iffy PKs already: Brazil, Spain and now Uruguay all got calls that would not be given in EPL or UCL. Makes me wonder. And three goals scored in the added time in five games.
#371

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Quote Originally Posted by frugalgambler View Post
Thanks a lot for the reply. I laid off my Greece +0.5 and actually made some money by taking Colombia 3-0. Another questionable call by the ref on the pk against CRica. I mean, it was a foul but there are fouls like that one on every other corner. There was a clear foul on the last corner by Costa Rica but the ref did not call it: the Uruguayan defender was basically hanging on the Costa Rican who was trying to get a header going. I dunno if it is the heat or what but the pace looks pretty sluggish. Well, Greece was horrible anyway. There have been three pretty iffy PKs already: Brazil, Spain and now Uruguay all got calls that would not be given in EPL or UCL. Makes me wonder. And three goals scored in the added time in five games.
No problem.

Yeah, Greece looked piss poor. You said well. There was no pace. But heat has nothing to do with it. That is the way Greece plays. But, I wouldn't count them off just yet. I believe that because of this performance, value will be available with them in the next game. Early goal was the one which spoiled their plans completely. They cannot play from behind. That is obvious. But, if they keep clean sheet for first 30 minutes or so, then they become comfortable and can play...

I haven't seen that foul for Uruguay's PK. I was watching a basketball game, so I can't really make a comment.

Thanks for Buffon info. Altought I already made a small play on a draw. Both teams would probably be happy with taking 1 point each. And when Italy is satisfied with a point, they usualy get it.
#373

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Guys how do you stand soccer?

Dont get me wrong I am 32 and was playing on school team in middle-school, I was a sweeper and used to love soccer but did not play/want to play for 5-6 years.

After the ridiculous pace of tennis soccer is impossible for me to watch unless there is Real Madrid or Bayern of 2012
#375

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the quality of the discussion on this page is actually very high...and betting-(which is essentially an exercise in applied probability, informed by specific sports knowledge) focused...

miles beyond the endlessly puerile literature on the great NBA-GOAT (aka. LBJ vs. Kobe vs. Jordan vs. "fill in the blank with your favorite super-hero")...which usually exhibits little if any attention to exploitable "edges" in that great Zig-Zag-Zig-Zag-interaction we all try to profit from: namely, the complex interacting chain/web/network of "chicken and egg" entities like...

ZIG=currently-common perceptions about the principals we bet on (usually people, horses and multi-faceted financial/research/ground-support-teams for vehicle-racing)
ZAG= current actualites about it (this one's known only to god, but we all try to model/perceive it)
ZIG=bookie's pricing to exploit that ZIG-ZAG...and finally our
ZAG=our deliberations/executions designed to expoloit the preceding ZIG-ZAG-ZIG

none of this is mentioned in the usual idiot's GOAT-debate, super common with young time-wasing idiots over NBA, while the old time-wasting idiots love to haggle endlessly over boxing...

the commonality of all absolutely-useless time-wasting versions of sports-talk like this is...it is ALL about the sports..."who" could/would do what if confronted with such and such in-game challenge by ______...etc. etc. etc....." and never about how you would bet to exploit the possibility of your model being accurate...no...it's all about the sports...and not about the "applied-probability in an atmosphere of heavy uncertainty" that betting really is

But in the dozen-or-so posts above, i like the spin NguyenImproved (great "play on words" BTW) put on this usually old-hat discussion...first he stirred up some sport-specific knowledge shit with his clearly-fringe evaluation of Fed...then, he put on a clever "how I'd TRY to exploit the proposition that your strong disagreement with me is both common-enough and just outdated-enough to create an exploitable dog-ear that I'm contrarian-enough to not just think about putting money on...but will"...so there

_____________________________

was anything resolved definitively?...no, that never really ever happens in a tv-movie ("eventually all participants reach a consensus") kind of way...but at least here there was some observable value in that the debate itself sharpened the reasoning and presentation skills of each participant, by challenging it...not bad since it was centred on a decidedly shop-worn issue...but there was a novel-enough new spin on it to make it actually worthwhile

altho the tone was testy at times...the level of the ideas and the clarity with which they were presented was solid all around......fascinating really...they generated all the usual HEAT over such a topic ...but also some of that stuff that seldom is generated by...some LIGHT as well...

good work guys

next scene: all hold hands while signing a pledge to respect other posters' inalienable "right to agree/disagree and especially BET as as we see fit"...and singing "kum-ba-ya!"
Last edited by fitguy67; 06-14-14 at 05:01 PM.