Honeybadger's picks

Great day for tennis so far. Why not spoil it with a football bet?

Brazil-Croatia draw @5.64 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Opening game of the FIFA World cup 2014. Brazil is a huge favorite, but I am not impressed with the way they are playing. Their midfield is probably the worst in last 20 years (at least). Most of people will say that home field is adventage for them. Not so fast. They will be under enormous pressure and crowd might even turn on them, if they fail to get into the lead, during the first half.
Croatia has nothing to lose. They are fired up and have a very good team. At these odds, draw is a must try.

You are being bailed-out big time today my friend. Big congrat's again!

Originally Posted by Hardcoar

You are being bailed-out big time today my friend. Big congrat's again!

Thanks!

It was a profitable day, but I am not feeling that great right now. Flipkens managed to ruin my @650 odds parlay...

King Konga playing against a limp and he's still down a break.


Edit:

Make that a break and double BP.

A little too ambitious on Croatia I think. I like Croats +1.5 better and draw 1H.

Originally Posted by frugalgambler

A little too ambitious on Croatia I think. I like Croats +1.5 better and draw 1H.

Yeah +1,5 sounds nice. I decided for a draw, because I am not willing to risk a lot of units on Croatia here. Left side of the defense is a suspect, with Pranjic out with injury. Also centre backs are known for making stupid mistakes. Even Lovren, who had very good season with Southampton... It is important, because Brazil's wing backs play very high up front (Dani Alves, Marcelo), creating added pressure on defense. With best defenders available, I would go with few units on +1,5 line, but in this situation, I am going, with the draw option. Odds are juicy. If it hits, great. If it doesn't, I am not going to stress over 1 lost unit. Good luck!

GL to you too. We'll see in a couple of hours. Brazil has an insane record of winning their groups at WCs, and I have them to win their group @-400. So I am not too stressed one way or another, but given the historical trends the opening game should be tight, especially the 1H. Add to that the weather and suspect pitch quality.

That own-goal was almost more pathetic than Konga.

Croatia got f.cking robbed. But I am not too bummed out, since my Brazil to win the group looks pretty good now. And I did get 1H draw@+145. That Croatian goalie really really sucks.

Yeah, there were few questionable calls by the ref. But I think that penalty was a correct decision. Fred is very experianced, while Lovren is stupid. Things simply fell into their place. I might be wrong though.
I again think that I had a good bet. Croatia was the better team imho, and deserved the draw. And frugal, I agree. Pletikosa's reactions at all 3 goals, were pretty poor.

That PK was very very iffy; 95% of the time it would not be given. Then the 2nd goal by Croats was disallowed on another BS call. The Asian refs lost it, as expected actually. They needed somebody like Collina to withstand that crowd pressure. I did not like both teams, but Croats might still be fine: Mexicans and Cameroonians should be even worse. That group might turn out to be about as weak as group H.

Actually, that was definitely not a true PK imo.

wow. no tennis posts for over 2 hrs for entire forum. surprising.

Honeybadger, could you elaborate on the penalty a bit?I really want to read argumented opinions on the case though that's really not what I find on the Internet.
Also do you think Olic did a foul against Julio Cesar?

Can't believe you thought it was PK.. Foul is often given though this one was very iffy