Honeybadger's picks

Jankovic ML @2.00 Pinnacle - 4 units

Kuznetsova did play some good tennis lately, but I think that is not enough to put her as equal to a very good top 10 player, like Jelena Jankovic, speaking of odds. She is a good shotmaker, but she will be forced to play on a very high level today and show some serious mental toughness, unlike the final match of Oeiras, where she crumbled under pressure against Suarez Navarro. Jankovic is extremly good from the baseline, defending and making good shots and I don't believe Kuznetsova can beat her in her own game. Also, Jelena likes this tournament, as she is a former champion here.


Lepchenko +3 @1.90 Pinnacle - 2 units

As I wrote before, odds on Stephens matches can fluctate quite a lot from week to week. I think that here we have a case, where with couple of wins, she is getting the trust back, from the casual tennis bettors, and imho, value is on Lepchenko's side. Of course, value is important, but I also like to have a good case behind that side, that she can really win or cover the line. Lepchenko can definitely do that. She knows how to play on clay. She is using her left handede playing style well, to make her opponents uncomfortable. She counter punches well fromt he defense and she is not that bad at serving. She can make it interesting here, at least, if not win the match.


Haas -3,5 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units

I am aware that Haas has not been that good lately and was pretty inconsistant. Also, loss against Sijsling in Madrid last week is not in favor of this bet. Still, I think that Sijsling really enjoyed that playing conditions in Madrid and he will have a lot of difficulties, keeping up with Haas, here in Rome. Surface is too slow for him, wind is messing up with his serve and I believ that he can't win a lot of points from Tommy in longer rallies on ths surface, while approaching the net is not that great of idea here, because the surface slows down the ball quite a lot and makes it easier for opponent to hit a passing shot.

3 for 3, nice job.

Thanks! I needed this bounce back, after that ugly performance last thursday...

Originally Posted by kenz

any leans for today hb?

No solid picks yet. I have to do some "homework" first and then I will let you guys know... Maybe the strongest lean at the moment is Ivanovic over, but that means nothing. I might wind up on the completely other side, when I think it through.

will wait for it hb. thanks! hope to see some ml bet from you!

Ferrer -3,5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units

I have a feeling that Gulbis is slowly but steadily returning to his old ways, just like Fabio Fognini. He is loosing focus on court way too easy, mostly over some unimportant things. That is resulting into more UE, which is a very dangerous thing in his game, where it is a thin line between genius and a lunatic, if I am allowed to say it that way. If he countinue to do that, he will get punished severly against Ferrer, who is playing some great tennis in last 10 days or so.


Lepchenko 1st set @6.87 - 1 unit

This is a type of bet which Hardcoar loves to make and I decided to "borrow" this method here, as I think it holds a lot of value. I have been high on Lepchenko since the start of the clay season. She is playing some decent tennis and what I noticed in couple of matches, is that she tends to come out of the blocks real strong. If Serena comes out on court, like she doesn't care for this match, Varvara has chance to steal 1st set from her.

Originally Posted by Honeybadger44

Ferrer -3,5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units

I have a feeling that Gulbis is slowly but steadily returning to his old ways, just like Fabio Fognini. He is loosing focus on court way too easy, mostly over some unimportant things. That is resulting into more UE, which is a very dangerous thing in his game, where it is a thin line between genius and a lunatic, if I am allowed to say it that way. If he countinue to do that, he will get punished severly against Ferrer, who is playing some great tennis in last 10 days or so.


Lepchenko 1st set @6.87 - 1 unit

This is a type of bet which Hardcoar loves to make and I decided to "borrow" this method here, as I think it holds a lot of value. I have been high on Lepchenko since the start of the clay season. She is playing some decent tennis and what I noticed in couple of matches, is that she tends to come out of the blocks real strong. If Serena comes out on court, like she doesn't care for this match, Varvara has chance to steal 1st set from her.

Nice analysis on the Lepchenko bet. Im thinking of tailing. good value.

I dont like Lepchenko. But odds speak for itself, me not liking is not so special BOL

Good.

Originally Posted by Honeybadger44

Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

Pennetta +1,5 (games) @1,91 Pinnacle - 5 units

Mathieu -3,5 @1,83 Pinnacle - 5 units (better odds can be found, shopping around)

Ivanovic/Goerges over 20,5 @1,90 Bet365 - 4 units

Verdasco ML @1,99 Pinnacle - 2 units

Sharapova -5 @1.79 Pinnacle - 4 units

Giraldo +4,5 @1.83 Bet365 - 3 units

Jankovic +1,5 games @1.81 Pinnacle - 4 units

Zahlavova Strycova ML @2,02 Pinnacle - 5 units

Sousa -2 @1,96 Pinnacle - 5 units

Suarez Navarro +2,5 @1.83 Pinnacle - 4 units

Jovanovski ML @1.91 Pinnacle - 4 units

record: 13-8-0
Hit rate: 61,9%
Staked: 77u
Yield: +22,08u
ROI: +28,67%

Tailed you on Ferrer. Thanks for another easy winner!

Radwanska ML @1.74 Pinnacle - 3 units

Yeah, Jankovic has been pretty good so far in the tournament. She dominated both Kuznetsova and Pennetta and that is why she is valued so much by the books here. Bit overvalued, if you ask me. Not in the way, where I would think that she doesn't deserve the credits for last two wins, because she does. She outplayed both her opponents. It is just that, when matching up against Radwanska, she will have to do completely different things to win, then she did in previous rounds. Only thing she had to do in previous two matches, is to be solid from the baseline, wher she is most comfortable at. Now, she will be forced to do more to win points and be more aggressive. Radwanska has great shot placment, which makes it difficult for her opponents to build a good point against her. Combine that with her high tennis IQ, great movement and defense and you can see that there is a big challenge in front of Jelena today. Imho, key against Aga is to close out at the net as often as possible, when you get ahead during the point. Jelena is not very comfortable at doing that and I believe that decreases her chances even more. Radwanska @1.74 , I'll take it.

Good write-up, agree with your points.

Did not like Jankovic against Pennetta yesterday. I had a heavy 2nd set live bet on JJ but 7th game in 2nd set was tough to watch, it was very crucial JJ held it. I postponed gym for at least half an hour Also she blew a 2-0 lead to double broken and then re-break to 3-3. JJ was pure baseline yesterday, did not try many winners too. She needs opponents to make mistakes

On it to win it