Honeybadger's picks

Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

I see value here. Simon was injured and since his return, he didn't really impress with his results. But, I have seen his last two matches, and I can say he was not that bad at all. Maybe that loss against Gabashvili looks bit disturbing, but trust me, Gabashvili was hitting that ball like crazy in that match.
Simon is looking to get some momentum going, and where to find a better place, then a tournament, where he won 3 titles and has 17-2 record. He feels great here, he will play with more confidence on these courts... I am aware that he is not at his best at the moment, but these odds are still an overreaction to his poor results lately. Simon @1,95 on clay, against Hanescu. It sounds good to me.
I saw Hanescu against Delbonis in Casablanca. Not impressed.

Originally Posted by Honeybadger44

Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

I see value here. Simon was injured and since his return, he didn't really impress with his results. But, I have seen his last two matches, and I can say he was not that bad at all. Maybe that loss against Gabashvili looks bit disturbing, but trust me, Gabashvili was hitting that ball like crazy in that match.
Simon is looking to get some momentum going, and where to find a better place, then a tournament, where he won 3 titles and has 17-2 record. He feels great here, he will play with more confidence on these courts... I am aware that he is not at his best at the moment, but these odds are still an overreaction to his poor results lately. Simon @1,95 on clay, against Hanescu. It sounds good to me.
I saw Hanescu against Delbonis in Casablanca. Not impressed.

Oh god I need this winner so much..Bulls ****** me again lol

Let's see,up to now Simo was f** poor,choked every time..

Tnx HB good luck to us.

someone sold their soul

nice pick

Originally Posted by Honeybadger44

Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

I see value here. Simon was injured and since his return, he didn't really impress with his results. But, I have seen his last two matches, and I can say he was not that bad at all. Maybe that loss against Gabashvili looks bit disturbing, but trust me, Gabashvili was hitting that ball like crazy in that match.
Simon is looking to get some momentum going, and where to find a better place, then a tournament, where he won 3 titles and has 17-2 record. He feels great here, he will play with more confidence on these courts... I am aware that he is not at his best at the moment, but these odds are still an overreaction to his poor results lately. Simon @1,95 on clay, against Hanescu. It sounds good to me.
I saw Hanescu against Delbonis in Casablanca. Not impressed.

Just now I had time to see the result,tnx mucho mucho on this winner

First time in my life that I followed someone with closed eyes.

Originally Posted by shimeon40

nice pick

Thanks!

Originally Posted by JustSomeCash

Just now I had time to see the result,tnx mucho mucho on this winner

First time in my life that I followed someone with closed eyes.

You are welcome, man!

Only, I am not a fan of "following somebody with your eyes close", system. That is why I write the reason, why I choose this pick, so everybody can read it and either say: "This guy has some good points there. I am going to follow". Or, you can say: "This reasoning is one big load of bullshit. I am going to pass on this one" .

Yeah I'd love to provide more reasoning without request as well but I'm simply too damn lazy and let the stats speak for themselves!

Originally Posted by Hardcoar

Yeah I'd love to provide more reasoning without request as well but I'm simply too damn lazy and let the stats speak for themselves!

Don't get me wrong, Hardcoar. I am not judging anybody, for not providing reasoning with their picks. I was more trying to say that when you follow somebody, it is always good to turn on your brain and put some extra thought about the bet, as ultimately, that is your money, which you are risking, and it is not bad to act responsable as possible. While most of the people follow and bet any shit that they could find on forums and then blaiming everybody but themselves, for loosing money.

Actually contrary to what I'd expect you to expect, that post was a hundred per-cent outrightly honest. There was not a single hint of sarcasm.


As such, I did not in any way, shape, or form, get you wrong.

Combining you lyrical geniusness, with the fact that English is my third language, I had to go through your post twenty times to understand what you are trying to say

Pennetta +1,5 (games) @1,91 Pinnacle - 5 units

She is playing some of the best tennis in her carrer, this season. I saw parts of her match yesterday against Petkovic and it seemed to me that she is comfortable with these conditions. She was hitting the ball well, while improvments could be made upon her service performance yesterday... As I was mentioning here, few days ago, it seems to me that these conditions in Stuttgart are favoring the players, which are hitting aggresivly from the baseline, over the grinders and counter-punchers (Pennetta = ball striker, Jankovic = counter puncher). Not impressed with Jankovic lately. She was not playing that bad, but she seems to be loosing her focus way to often, when the things don't go her way. She saved 3 match points against Barthel in previous round and probably shouldn't even be here.

Mathieu -3,5 @1,83 Pinnacle - 5 units (better odds can be found, shopping around)

I know that I went with Copil the other day, but that was more fading his opponent then backing him. He was pretty solid in that match, but here he will face a match-up problem. His backhand seems to be the weak spot of his game, while Mathieu's backhand might be even be the strongest weapon. His backhand cross court is very good and he will use it very often today, in order to exploit Copil's weaknesses. Also, we could see in previous match, what we already know. Copil is not a clay courter. He is relying on his serve quite a lot and he can keep this one close, only if he serves perfect today, imho. He can do that, but those chances are not huge, so I am willing to take that risk.

Ivanovic/Goerges over 20,5 @1,90 Bet365 - 4 units

No special reasons for this one. I simply think that both girls have games, which are perfect for these conditions. Both hit the ball really well in first round and I believe they will go back and forth in this one, pushing the total easily over this line.

Verdasco ML @1,99 Pinnacle - 2 units

Only 2 unit play here, as I am not overwhelmed by the value in these odds. Verdasco is 8-4 h2h and I think I know why. As A lefty, he can easily stay away from Almagro's punishing forehand and work his backhand, during the rallies. Especially on clay, where players with one handed backhands have more problems, controling the shots with a lot of top spin, when playing on that side... Verdasco seems to be in better form as well here. But as I said, only 2 units, as value is not big + Almagro had quite some success on this tournament earlier.

Originally Posted by Honeybadger44

Combining you lyrical geniusness, with the fact that English is my third language, I had to go through your post twenty times to understand what you are trying to say

It's all good man... I like myself some proper mind-f*cking now and then.

That post was actually dead serious as well, despite what any sane person would suppose.

Originally Posted by Hardcoar

It's all good man... I like myself some proper mind-f*cking now and then.

That post was actually dead serious as well, despite what any sane person would suppose.

In my place,this was your avatar ():

Sharapova -5 @1.79 Pinnacle - 4 units

My line here was -6 , so in my eyes, this line is offering nice value. Probably it is set this way, as Sharapova is not a huge fan of clay, while for Errani this is favorite surface. But still, Sharapova was doing really well here in the past and I think that it has something to do with playing it indoors. Imho, here she has more control over her serve, which is very important for her game.
That is why I see an easy win for her in this spot. Pretty much everything will be decided within the first two shots in every point, where Sharapova should take control over the points and hopefully win them. Errani's serve is weak. Especially her second serve is begging to be returned for a winner. She will have a lot of problems holding on to her serve as I believe Maria will attack it right away and put Errani into bad situation. If Sharapova's serve will be at least decent, she should cruise through this one.

Giraldo +4,5 @1.83 Bet365 - 3 units

This one doesn't have that much to do with Giraldo. He has been playing well lately, but I expect Almagro to have a letdown here. Something similar to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, who played nowhere near as good in the semis, comparing to the performance in quarters, where he eliminated Nadal. That is a huge achivment for these guys, who got stopmed by Nadal over and over again in previous years, especially on clay. That might cause, Almagro not to be 100% focused on the next opponent + the fatigue, after 3 hour battle...

Jankovic +1,5 games @1.81 Pinnacle - 4 units

These two girls know each other really well, as this will be their 12th time to play against each other. Ivanovic is owning the series 8-3, but I am still leaning toward Jankovic in this one. She has simply been more consistant and played better throughout this week. Ivanovic hit the ball really well at times, but also went from one msitake to another at times. She had problems finding rhythm on her backhand side and with her serve. Jankovic will for sure try to expose that backhand side during the rallies, because she have abilities to do that. She is commiting less mistakes and also serving pretty well. I see Jankovic as a slight favorite here and not the other way around.

Hi HB,Thanks again for your picks two days ago.

I parlayed Flavia +1.5 sets @ Ivanovic over and made my money for this day. All credit for you.

for today,you said "I expect Almagro to have a letdown here. Something similar to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, who played nowhere near as good in the semis, comparing to the performance in quarters, where he eliminated Nadal. "

But that way diff IMO,Ferrer game against Rafa was much more exhausting than yesterday game,also Ferrer played against Waw in SF and Waw was Wow lol,he just was great in this turny and Ferrer didnt have any answers for his powers,this time the guy waiting in the corner is far from being good player,last game vs Kohli,he berly manage to win a set against inj player,he was up 5-2 in the first set that choke and alow Koli to back to 5-4 15-40* but than Kohli went crazy and lost 4 points in a row to loss the set,than in the 2nd Gilrdo was up 3-0 but again Koli back to 3-3 and was so close to break again to lead 34 but than the inj was to much,so really, he is nothing but shit,and this bet not really up to him IMO but good luck.

For Janko bet,IMO its better this time to take the ML bec Ana had some inj last game and if she get kick in the ass she can ret like CSN yesterday than the bet will win(in Pinni)

however,goood luck today hope you will kick their ass!