Honeybadger's picks

Decided to start my own thread, instead of being all over the tennis section and posting my thoughts in other people's threads. I can't promise that I will be posting every day, but I will try. And also, I'll be updating stats as often as possible. Let's get this!

Hsieh +1,5 sets @3,07 Pinnacle - 2 units

Hsieh ML @7,24 Pinnacle - 1 unit


I think that odds are worth of a try. It is a small tournament, where large favorites doesn't always play at their 100%. Playing conditions are also very difficult, because of that high humidity, but I think that asian players have a slight edge there, because they are more used of that, then european players. Also, Hsieh has a tricky style of game. She is taking the ball on the rise, mostly, which makes her shots more difficult to read and set defense for. Also comfortable at the net.

Looking forward to your posts. Good luck!

Hey I'm also happy to see you've made your own thread. Good luck.

Yes yes yes, Happy to see you open a thread!

one of the wise Guys here,good luck my man,hope to see you kiicking asses!

Thanks guys! I really appreciate all of these positive comments. I hope my posts will help you guys, to win some extra money

Originally Posted by Honeybadger44

Thanks guys! I really appreciate all of these positive comments. I hope my posts will help you guys, to win some extra money

I like your line of thinking! I think you are very clever, and we can become wiser out of it, even if your picks lost.

Love to hear if you have some opinions for rest of ** games,even that all the remaining games are shit.

This is a loser, not because of odds but because of unparalleled lack of anything good about tennis on Hsieh. I expect an easy win by Domi.

However you have good points in a lot of games, BOL in your thread

Originally Posted by JustSomeCash

I like your line of thinking! I think you are very clever, and we can become wiser out of it, even if your picks lost.

Love to hear if you have some opinions for rest of ** games,even that all the remaining games are shit.

Correct. I find the rest of the lines, for matches in Monte Carlo very difficult to break down. I didn't bet any of them. I was clsoe to make a play on Federer to cover. Also thought about Dimitrov giving a hard time to Ferrer, because David was not impressive so far in the season. But I backed down, because I think his style of play will cause problems to Grigor, who is not in best form either...

Originally Posted by kenz

This is a loser, not because of odds but because of unparalleled lack of anything good about tennis on Hsieh. I expect an easy win by Domi.

However you have good points in a lot of games, BOL in your thread

Different oppinions are always welcome here. I am aware that this bet is a longshot, but I thought the value was there, so I went with it.

Hsieh is horrible, I dont know how she even qualified for WTA. On paper she looks ok, especially 2012. But when you watch her, even pairing with Peng on doubles, I ask myself what the fak she is doing there

I know you will do pretty good in the long run, BOL . Looking forward for your angles

Wawrinka-Raonic over 22,5 @1,98 Pinnacle - 4 units

Stan played tennis of his life in Melbourne, but since then, he kinda got back to his old ways. And that is, showing flashes of briliance at times, but being pretty inconsistant overall. I expected him to get slightly more consistant on clay, but considering how Milos played this week so far, I believe we will see a close one here. I like Milos' gameplan this week and the execution. He is aware that he will not win enough points in long rallies against these guys on clay, so he is taking a lot of risk on his return, being very aggressive and it payed off so far for him. He is serving well, returning well, hitting the ball well, playing with a lot of confidence and Stan should not have an easy job here, imho.

I don't have picks yet, for the semifinals and I might even skip these matches, but I still felt that I should post some of my thoughts, regarding these two matches.

Ferrer-Wawrinka

The way David has been playing in past couple of days, I think that his opponents felt like they are stroking the ball into the brick wall, because the ball kept coming back, again, and again, and again... Based on that and on what I already said yesterdaay about Wawrinka's inconsistancy, I am leaning towards Ferrer here. Of course, on a good day, when Stan is really "feeling it", he can punch through any defense, with his big arsenal of shots. We are all aware of that. But problem for him is, that against Ferrer in current form, he has to play consistantly on a highest level, for 2,5 or 3 hours. Can he do that at the moment? I wouldn't say so... I might turn this one into my "official pick", later.


Federer-Djoković

Well, if you saw yesterdays matches, you are probably all over Djoković in this one. Federer played some of the worst tennis, I've seen from him this season. Against Nadal in Melbourne, he was helpless, because of unfavorable matchup, which is always causing him problems, but here, he just commited too many mistakes. And when was the last time we could see Fedex, loosing his focus like this? 0/13 on break point opportunities through first two sets?! He was pretty lucky that Tsonga is not that good at the moment and he somehow managed to win that one.
On the other side, Djoković perfect in first two matches and very good yesterday. Don't let that 3 setter fool you, because he played good tennis. GGL really give his apsolute best there and pushed Nole to work hard for that win.
So, according to those things, which I wrote about above, things seems pretty easy, right? Well, I don't think so. I got myself into a lot of troubles, too many times, when I gave too much meaning to the performances of a tennis player, in previous match. Federer was awfull yesterday, but I can't see him coming out today looking poor like that. And his game is always causing some troubles to Djoković. Novak just doesn't match up well against him. That is why I think it will not be that easy for him.

Cirstea-Jovanovski over 20 @1,86 Pinnacle - 3 units



4th match of this Fed cup tie between Romania and Serbia. After Romania opened this one with a 2-0 lead, Ivanovic's win over Halep kept Serbia alive, so now the pressure is on Cirstea to close this one out for her team. Jovanovski is a very good counter pucher and can bring a lot of shots back into the play, on clay courts. Forcing Sorana to play an extra shot, combined with pressure which is on her shoulders and her very aggressive and risky playing style, I think she will commit quite some errors in this one and I don't expect an easy win. Line is too low, as we could easily see a three setter here.

Vesely +2,5 @1,88 Pinnacle - 6 units

Chary is simply awful at the moment, imho, so I can't see him as a favorite against any solid player on ATP tour. Vesely is one of them. I am not that worried about the retirment in Casablanca. It was some kind of illness and he had enough time from that match to recover from it.
Beside Chardy being poor lately, there are few other things, which are luring me to take Vesely. He is a lefty, so he will more easily expose one of Chardy's weaknesses - backhand. Also, it will be much tougher for Chardy to run around the ball and hit it with his forehand, which he likes to do a lot. That will force him to get out of his comfort zone and I doubt that will bring him any good.


Gimeno Traver ML @1,94 Pinnacle - 4 units

Little bit of an overreaction here. Carballes Baena put his name on the ATP tour map, with his semifinal apperence in Casablanca. He did played well, but I doubt it he can do it regulary, at least not this season. Also, now the other players know more about him and his playing style and he is not a surprise for them no more. He is a very good defender, but still lacks some quality in other aspects of the game. I just can't see him being neck to neck, against one of the experianced clay courter like Gimeno Traver, just yet.
At the moment, all you have to do against young spaniard is to lure him into being more offensive and dictate the point more often. He is not that good at that. If I know that, Gimeno Traver does to and that tells me, Carballes Baena doesn't have 50% chances for the win, like bookies think.

Like Traver too..good luck..yes over reaction to his run is casa