Olivetti to defeat Cipolla (1.53) - 3 units
Cilic to defeat Djokovic (5.50) - 0.5 unit
Luckily Golubev retired. 2-0 Wawrinka was one of the worst plays I have made but I have learnt some very important lessons in the last few days.
I will update with results after the doubles' match and the Joker match end.
Istomin to defeat Kamke (1.44) - 2 units
Sijsling to defeat Marchenko (1.50) - 1 unit
Irigoyen to defeat Haddad Maia (1.33) - 2 units win
Raonic to defeat Murray (2.50) - 1 unit win
Wawrinka to defeat Anderson 2-0 (1.53) - 2 units loss
Dustov to defeat Basic (1.40) - 2 units win
Melnikova to defeat Sanesi (1.36) - 2 units win
Hsieh/Peng to defeat Barty/Dellacqua (1.53) - 1 unit win
Golubev to defeat Smyczek (3.50) - 0.5 units void
Olivetti to defeat Cipolla (1.53) - 3 units win
Cilic to defeat Djokovic (5.50) - 0.5 unit loss
Wins-Losses-Void
91-42-8
YTD
+27.81 units
units risked: 265.9 units won: 293.71
ROI
10.46%
Kucova to defeat Bogdan (1.33) - 2 units
Panova to defeat Pella (1.28) - 1 unit
hey Marillion, great thread...
i just want to make sure i'm on the same page as you...
so far today there are 4 plays, namely:
Panova over Pella, 1u@1.28: -1 / +1.28 / +0.28 (ie. risking 1u to gross 1.28u = net 0.28u)
Kucova over Bogdan, 2u@1.33: -2 / +2.66 / +0.66
Sijsling over Marchenko, 1u@1.5: -1 / +1.5 / +0.5
Istomin over Kamke, 2u@1.44: -2 / +2.88 / +0.88
anything i'm missing?
almost no-one saw Wawrinka losing to Anderson like that...looked like he just didn't care (the only time we KNOW these guys are 100% on the job is at a slam)...and u keep your bet-sizes sane so your bankroll didn't even skip a beat due to it
keep up the good work
Hey, thanks sir. There is also the Marie - Niki game... Last time I checked, it hadn't played yet.
ed: This is an ITF game.. in Japan, I think.
I think Wawa in straights was bad because he played against a big server on hard court... so I should have thought if Wawa was even a bit off and Kev's serve was on fire, then the South African could make it at least close... But of course, I didn't see Wawa losing this one!
Last edited by Marillion; 03-13-14 at 09:53 AM.
Li to defeat Cibulkova (1.40) - 2 units
The match is about to start.
Zhang to defeat Sorensen (1.57) - 2 units
Panova to defeat Simmonds (1.40) - 2 units
Gombos to defeat Ilhan (1.57) - 1 unit
Marie to defeat Niki (1.30) - 2 units loss
Istomin to defeat Kamke (1.44) - 2 units loss
Sijsling to defeat Marchenko (1.50) - 1 unit loss
Kucova to defeat Bogdan (1.33) - 2 units win
Panova to defeat Pella (1.28) - 1 unit win
Li to defeat Cibulkova (1.40) - 2 units win
Zhang to defeat Sorensen (1.57) - 2 units loss
Gombos to defeat Ilhan (1.57) - 1 unit loss
Wins-Losses-Void
94-47-8
YTD
+20.85 units
total units risked 278.9 total units won 299.75
ROI
7.48%
This is a pretty bad streak, I am genuinely surprised by 4 of the 5 losses and am 100% sure Gombos was a pretty square play. No need to get disappointed, though.
From now on, I will try to do some brief write-ups, not that I am an expert or something but I will try to put my thoughts in writing.
Federer to defeat Dolgopolov (1.28) - 3 units
As much as I admire Dolgopolov's style, I am pretty confident in this pick. Federer can do everything much better than Dolgopolov, superior technique, superior shots, both are moving pretty well... OK, I don't know about the serve (Dolgo's serve is very impressive considering that he is only 180 cm) but the Master should take this even if the Ukrainian can definitely make it close (something like 6-4 7-5, let's say).
Matsui/Onozawa to defeat Kikuchi/Longhi (1.33) - 2 units
Both Matsui and Onozawa played very well in their double teams in the Kyoto challenger. The other double team seems to be way worse than them and this is also a match I am pretty confident of.
Panova to defeat Simmonds (1.40) - 2 units
Panova has been crushing these South American challengers recently losing only to Begu (probably the best player in that player pool now). Unlike Simmonds, she is a clay court specialist and I think she should take this match.
Stakhovsky to defeat Smyczek (1.44) - 2 units
I think the Ukrainian serve-and-volley guy is good enough to defeat players at Smyczek's level the vast majority of the time (on a fast surface, of course). This tournament has brought me 2 major disappointments so far (Sijsling and Istomin) and almost brought me one more (Golubev retired), so let's hope this ends the losing streak.
Bennetau to defeat Djokovic (11.00) - 0.25 units
OK, if Djoko can lose a set to Alejandro Gonzalez, who is way worse than Bennetau on hard, then he may lose two to the Frenchman (who seems to be in a good form), n'est-ce pas?
EDIT: I now see that the Panova match has already started, so I won't count it when tracking the results. Will try to avoid that in the future.
EDIT 2: Ok, I now see that I had already posted Panova in my previous post (which was a few hours earlier), so I will count it!
Last edited by Marillion; 03-14-14 at 09:14 AM.
Matsui/Onozawa to defeat Kikuchi/Longhi (1.33) - 2 units win
Panova to defeat Simmonds (1.40) - 2 units win
Stakhovsky to defeat Smyczek (1.44) - 2 units win
Bennetau to defeat Djokovic (11.00) - 0.25 units loss
Wins-Losses-Void
97-48-8
YTD
+22.94 units
total units risked 285.15 total units won 308.09
ROI
8.04%
Sasnovich to defeat Ianchuk (1.22) - 1 unit
Sasnovich has been cruising in this ITF tournament so far and seems to be on her way to top 100. She has also had very impressive results recently. I see small value here even with the line that low.
Isner to defeat Djokovic (5.50) - 0.5 unit
With that line I have to go with the big American. He seems to have recovered from his injury and is playing very well. He is going to put a lot of pressure on Nole and I am not convinced that the Serb is in a very good form. He dropped a set to Cilic and, more importantly, to Gonzalez, while yesterday, Benneteau was too bad to even make it close. I definitely think Isner has a chance on hard in his home country and that the odds are good enough.
Weintraub to defeat Sorensen (1.66) - 3 units
The lrish player is a level below Weintraub, I think... He has been an unpleasant surprise for me defeating Ze Zhang in this tourney (8-6 in the third set tiebreak) but I think the Israeli will get this match and the whole tourney.
Will update thread with results after this match.
Djokovic to defeat Federer (1.61) - 4 units
I understand what dictates the opening lines but think that Novak holds some good value and am betting 4 units. I am pretty sure that this line will go down.
