EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

*Awkward, stupid silence*

Originally Posted by Hardcoar

*Awkward, stupid silence*

Creepy....like trying to ignore the neighbour you see staring into anther neighbours bedroom....

Previews coming out quarter by quarter as I go. Tweeting them as well when they are ready. After the quarters, I will have a separate post on 1st round upsets/futures. Good luck gents.

US Open Preview: Men's Quarter #1

Seeds
#1 Djokovic
#8 Murray
#9 Tsonga
#13 Isner
#22 Kohlschreiber
#24 Benneteau
#28 Garcia-Lopez
#31 Verdasco

Djokovic sports a 45-8 all-time mark at the U.S. Open, but when it comes to taking home the big prize, he's only done it once. That doesn't mean he isn't part of the conclusion most years. In fact, Djokovic has made the Final four straight years. The plus is that Rafael Nadal who has placed two of those defeats in the past four years is not here. For Djokovic though, it's really about himself. Since winning Wimbledon, his most important victory seems to be getting married to his long-time girlfriend. His results on the court have been well below par for the top ranked player in the World. He's just 2-2 on hard courts this Summer with straight sets losses to a previously out-of-form Jo-Wilifried Tsonga and to Tommy Robredo in Cincinnati. He's admitted being a little emotionally drained and flat this Summer following Wimbledon and the wedding. The big question will be if he can raise his intensity for the next two weeks. It's hard to go against his track record, but one would not be thought a fool if they picked against him being around on the Final weekend.

8th seeded Andy Murray seems much more relaxed this Summer, perhaps part of that due to the new coaching stylings of Amelie Mauresmo. What has not changed is that Murray has been unable to find a ton of consistency in 2014. He did okay with quarterfinal showings in Toronto & Cincinnati, but never seemed a legit contender those two weeks. The good news for Murray is that the USO has great memories for him. He's 33-8 at the USO and of course it was his breakthrough moment in 2012 when he won his first Grand Slam title. He has made at least the quarters three straight years. Despite the turmoil of working back from back surgery late last year and the coaching change. Murray has still managed to make the quarterfinals of all three Slams this year. That could certainly be a challenge if Tsonga is in his way, but Murray has said he is looking to infuse his game with a little more "flair" ... we'll see what results that brings.

9th seeded Jo-Wilifried Tsonga comes in with some regained confidence after his Rogers Cup title. Tsonga though generally has not made strong runs at the USO. He's 12-5 all-time, making the quarterfinals once. In six tries, he's lost in the 3rd round or earlier in half of those occasions. So while many will be looking for him to pounce, he will need to overcome his own failures here. His draw is safe enough with a lethargic Juan Monaco up first. The biggest test ahead of meeting a big name could come in the 3rd round against a fellow Frenchman. Benoit Paire & Julien Benneteau are pitted against each other in the opening round with the winner expected to get to that date with Tsonga. Give Benneteau the edge with much better form than the wildly inconsistent Paire, but don't be completely shocked if Paire amps it up against his countryman and notches a win.

Of the other seeds, keep an eye on Kohlschreiber. He's made the 4th round each of the last two years and beaten John Isner to get to that round. Anyone want to take a wild guess who he is seeded to play in the 3rd round in this quarter? You got it. John Isner. You can't make that up. Isner himself has a 15-7 mark all-time at the USO. The third round though and Mr.Kohlschreiber have been his kryptonite. Three of the last four years he has last in the third round, two to Kohlschreiber. His route to another meeting with Kohlschreiber looks conducive to him being there. Maybe the third time in the third round will be the lucky charm he needs.

The unseeded players in this quarter don't look overly dangerous. Yen Hsen-Lu has had a nice Summer, but does not play well here. He's 2-7 all-time. Sam Querrey will of course be tabbed as someone to watch being an American playing on American soil. Querrey does have a little momentum with a semifinal appearance in Winston-Salem this past week, but he really should have made the Final so there could be some disappointment from that. Overall, Querrey does seem to enjoy the Open. He's 12-7 and has made the 4th round a couple times. That is asking too much possible with Novak Djokovic the seeded player in his path if he makes the third round, but that would be a good showing for Querrey this week.

4th Round Predictions
Djokovic vs. Kohlschreiber
Benneteau vs. Murray

End Game
Void of any truly dangerous unseeded players, this quarter looks like it could come down to the marquee quartefinal of Djokovic & Murray. I still question the fitness of Tsonga to be around when it comes to money time in this quarter. He'll need to make light work of his first couple of matches to be prepared for the business end of this quarter.
Semifinalist: Djokovic

US Open Preview: Men's Quarter #2

Seeds
#3 Wawrinka
#5 Raonic
#10 Nishikori
#16 Robredo
#21 Youzhny
#23 L.Mayer
#29 Rosol
#30 Chardy

It looked to many that Stan Wawrinka had arrived with his Australian Open title this January, but since then his form has wavered. He flopped in the opening round at the French Open, but did make the quarters at Wimbledon. In between though, his form has been all over the place and this Summer it's been the same. He won one and lost one in Toronto and then made the Cincinnati quarters where he was upset in three lopsided sets by Julien Benneteau. So which Wawrinka shows in New York? The one who finally showed he was ready for prime time with a quarterfinal demolition of Andy Murray last Fall and an electric five set loss to Djokovic in the semis? Or the 2014 version post-Australia? He has always been pretty good here with a 23-9 mark. His draw looks full of promise for at least a 4th round birth. The third round would be the possible trap against Donald Young or Jeremy Chardy. Young beat Wawrinka at this tournament three years ago. Otherwise, what's between the ears would seem to be what stands in Wawrinka's way the most en route to another potential semifinal trip.

As the 5th seed, Milos Raonic has made plenty of noise this Summer. The Canadian won the title in Washington DC and followed up with decent quarterfinal and semifinal showings in Toronto and Cincinnati. His Grand Slam resume in 2014 is solid. He lost a tough third round match to Grigor Dimitrov in Australia and then made the quarters at the French and his first semifinal at Wimbledon. Is he prepped to take that one or two steps further? He's been consistent at the USO the last two years, making the 4th round both times. His draw looks very well laid out to a potential quarterfinal clash with Wawrinka. 10th seeded Kei Nishikori has health concerns in this part of the draw. 29th seed Lukas Rosol might be the toughest out after winning in Winston-Salem this week. The two would face off in the third round. Raonic's better all-around skills should prevail and the hard hitter should make it three straight quarterfinals at Slams.

Of the remaining seeds, Nishikori would have been one to watch perhaps. The highest ranked Japanese player though has been dealing with the recovery following surgery on a cyst in his foot. It kept him out of the pre-US Open prep and in interviews, he has not sounded like a player confident of doing much. 16th seeded Tommy Robredo is the guy I would monitor as he had made the 4th round in four of his last five trips to the USO. However, his draw is difficult. Roger-Vasselin to open. Vasek Pospisil likely in the 2nd and then if he survives that he could see Youzhny, Kyrgios, Stakhovsky or Seppi in the third. I won't count him out, but he'll earn every round he makes this week.

And speaking of Mikhail Youzhny, the 21st ranked Russian could stamp his place on the four year plan at the USO. He made surprise visits to the semis in 2006 and 2010. He also made the quarters in 2013. 2014 though has been a nightmare for him with a 13-17 mark and 2nd round ousters in all three Slams to-date. With a 1st rounder against what could be a future star in the making in Nick Kyrgios, Youzhny will have to escape that test first. If he does though, keep an eye out.

If we're looking for unseeded floaters, the danger men in this quarter start with the aforementioned Nick Kyrgios. The young Aussie marked his arrival at Wimbledon with an upset over Rafa Nadal in the 4th round and then provided a solid showing in losing in the quarters to Raonic. This is just his 2nd main draw appearance at the USO, making it through qualifying last year before David Ferrer whipped him in straights in the opening round. This year, expectations will be a bit higher even against a veteran like Youzhny. If he can score that opening round upset, Kyrgios could make a run for a few rounds.

This quarter really has some potential for non-seeds to surprise. You've got Stakhovsky, Pospisil, Jack Sock and even Donald Young as guys who can do some damage in the right situation. Sock all of a sudden with the injury news on Nishikori looks a threat for a run as well. He opens against Pablo Andujar and then gets Nishikori or Odesnik. If Nishikori is less than 100%, Sock can take advantage. There's a chance he could see the 4th round if everything falls right. That would beat his last two years where he's gone out in the 3rd round.

4th Round Predictions
Wawrinka vs. Robredo
Sock vs. Raonic

End Game
Wawrinka and Raonic seem a clear cut above most in this quarter, but that's not to say they are locks by any means to be in contention for a semifinal birth. Still, I like what Raonic has shown this Summer to follow up his Wimbledon performance. For me, he's the one to beat in this quarter and he seems to have the hunger. There are definitely some outliers who could pull shocks and shake this quarter up. Robredo being the vet with the heart and Sock being the young player here who seems to get a boost from the surroundings.
Semifinalist: Raonic

US Open Preview: Men's Quarter #3

Seeds
#4 Ferrer
#6 Berdych
#11 Gulbis
#14 Cilic
#18 K.Anderson
#19 F.Lopez
#26 Simon
#27 Giraldo

This to me is the most mouth-watering quarter of the draw if you like open competition and the air of uncertainty. That is what you're going to find here. The quarter is void of a dominant force with David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych as the top seeds. Ferrer, seeded 4th, will again be the guy no one wants to play in a best of five. The Spaniard has also found some form to finish the Summer prep with a Finals appearance in Cincinnati. Ferrer has found NY pretty pleasant with a 27-11 record during his career. That includes two semifinals, the last of which came in 2012. He has made at least the 4th round in four straight years at the USO. To me, this is the typical set-up for Ferrer to be there at the end with a chance to make another Grand Slam semifinal. No one will talk about him much amid the question marks with Djokovic and Murray and the resurgent season of Federer. But Ferrer generally is always there near the end. He has two Slam quarters under his belt this season and his draw, while not easy, does lend itself to him having a chance.

In recent times, this quarter would be one that Tomas Berdych would likely be carrying the label of favorite in. However, Berdych's 2014 season has been a rollercoast ride with more dips than rises. Berdych carries a 24-11 record at the USO into this year's tournament, but he's had somewhat of a rougher time than the record indicates. He made the semis in 2012 and lost in the 4th round to Wawrinka last year. Before that though, Berdych went four years without making it past the third round. That disappointment could be on tap again as Berdych has won just two matches since Wimbledon with suspect losses to Yen Hsen-Lu in Cincinatti and Vasek Pospisil in Toronto. He'll be up against Lleyton Hewitt first which will require a hard hat and lunch pail to perservere to the 2nd round. Darcis or Klizan in round two won't be a cake walk either. While a third round reprieve would be likely, the 4th round could feature a seeded player in either Lopez or Gulbis. I don't fancy Berdych turning around his poor form of late and getting together a run in NY.

Of the other seeds, there's danger lurking in Gulbis, Cilic, Anderson and Lopez. Gulbis has had the worst Summer of that quartet, but remains a mercurial talent capable of flipping the switch at any time. His pedestrian 6-7 mark at the USO though makes him the longest shot of these four to bust out. That and really a rather blah slate of form since his semifinal surprise at Roland Garros. Since then, it's been more of the Bad Gulbis people expect.

Cilic will have to be on alert from the opening bell with Marcos Baghdatis as his 1st round opponent. While Baghdatis has had a poor run of form for most of a year and a few months, he has put together some wins on the Challenger level in recent weeks that could change his mindset and courage. Upset alter right off the bat. If Cilic survives, things progress easier to a third round encounter with Jerzy Janowicz or Kevin Anderson most likely. Anderson has that tougher road with Janowicz possible in the 2nd round. 19th seed Felciano Lopez does have a tough path with Dodig to open and then maybe American Steve Johnson all before getting to a possible third rounder with Gulbis. Lopez though had some form this Summer in Toronto with a semifinal run there before tiring in Cincinnati in the 1st round. For me if Berdych fails and Gulbis keeps in his current form, Lopez could sneak into the quarterfinal mix.

There are a few non-seeds that could open some eyes in this wide open quarter. American Steve Johnson scored a couple nice scalps this Summer, beating Isner in DC and Gulbis in Cincinatti. He narrowly lost in three sets in a third set tie breaker to Milos Raonic in Cincy as well. Johnson will look to rebound from a disappointing opening round loss to Tobias Kamke at the USO in 2013. He draws Ito to open, a very winnable match and then faces Lopez or Dodig. His game matches either guy, it's not hard to see him making the 3rd round with a good run of play.

Janowicz will be back in the spotlight after a nice week in Winston-Salem where he made the Final before losing in three tight sets to Lukas Rosol. Janowicz has been desperately void of form for most of 2014, so the question will be whether or not he can carry that into the next week or two. His opener against Lajovic should be expected as a winner, but his stay could be short with Kevin Anderson likely as a 2nd round opponent. That however could come down to tie breaks and you never know when it gets to that point. As mentioned before, Baghdatis bears watching. His confidence has to be boosted by finding some form albeit in Challengers. A win over Cilic to open though would really boost that sky-high and maybe give the Cypriot a chance to truly be relevant again.

4th Round Predictions
Berdych vs. Lopez
Baghdatis vs. Ferrer

End Game
No one could fault a person for picking any of the seeded players in this quarter as a potential semifinalist. It does appear that wide open. Historically though, that has always seemed to be the time that David Ferrer has defied the perceived odds and worked his way through a draw to a deep run at a Grand Slam. With the lack of form from Berdych and more question marks than answers for a lot in this quarter, I'm not going to bet against the ultimate grinder to do his thing here and be the last man standing from this quarter.
Semifinalist: Ferrer

Amazing write up man. Glad we agree on Sock to go far.

US Open Preview: Men's Quarter #4

Seeds
#2 Federer
#7 Dimitrov
#12 Gasquet
#15 Fognini
#17 Bautista-Agut
#20 Monfils
#25 Karlovic
#32 J.Sousa

The most consistent performer on the men's tour heads this quarter with Roger Federer seeking another deep run. Federer is 67-9 all-time at the USO, but has not been involved in the Final since 2009. That could change. After rolling through three rounds last year, he was stunned in straights by Tommy Robredo in the 4th round. Since 2014 started though, Federer has been playing at an elite level for most of the year. He comes in with momentum off a title in Cincinnati and a decent draw. He does have big servers like Sam Groth potentially in the 2nd round and Ivo Karlovic in the third. His seeded 4th round opponent though is weak in Fabio Fognini, so if Federer can avoid the early pitfalls of the power servers ... he should be in excellent shape for another Slam semi.

Grigor Dimitrov looks to be ready for prime time after making his 1st Slam semifinal at Wimbledon. He played reasonably well in making the semis at the Rogers Cup in Toronto before crashing out in his opening match in Cincy. This looks like an easy bet for Dimitrov to finally win a U.S. Open match. He's 0-3 at the Open, but should have an opportunity to break that streak against Ryan Harrison. His part of the draw looks easy early, but will get difficult by the third round where he could face a resurgent, unseeded David Goffin. His 4th round match could be against either of two Frenchmen in Monfils or Gasquet. That's what makes Federer a better looking proposition to get out of this quarter.

Of the remaining seeds, Monfils will be the showman of course and he could legitimately be a late threat. Monfils has a workable draw that looks like it is hell-bent on that all-French meeting with Gasquet if Gasquet abides. Gasquet does have what could be a tough opener with Denis Istomin. Istomin has not had a great year, but his game can be tough at times. Gasquet is 19-8 at the USO and made the semis last year. Health is always the biggest question. He pulled out of Toronto with an abdominal strain, but should be fit to start this week. Karlovic's big serve will test some of the veterans in his part of the draw as he opens with Jarkko NIeminen and then would face either Melzer or Granollers. If it's "on" then he is a challenge to even the likes of Federer, but the question will be his ability to maintain a high level serve over the course of four or five sets if needed.

If you're looking for a floater with some potential to shock in this quarter, Goffin cannot be discounted. The Belgian won 25 straight matches after losing his opener at Wimbledon. Yes, more than half of that was down on the Challenger level, but he proved at Kitzbuhel & Winston-Salem that he is a threat in main draws on the ATP level. He opens against fellow Belgian Neils Desein and then has Dancevic or Sousa. A third round run seems possible for him.

4th Round Predictions
Dimitrov vs. Monfils
Smyczek vs. Federer

End Game
It's difficult to go against Federer, especially given that with some question marks across the board that he has to feel as good as anyone about winning this thing. Dimitrov certainly can be a fly in the ointment. but his 4th round match could be the difference depending on how much it takes out of him.
Semifinalist: Federer

Seeded 1st Round Upsets
2013: Ten seeds lose
2012: Six seeds lose
2011: Four seeds lose
2010: Eight seeds lose

The majority of the seeded upsets come from the bottom seeds from 20-32, but there always a few from seeds higher on the food chain. Here's a look at some prone seeds for the 1st round.

Rola over Verdasco [31]
Don't sleep on Rola. He doesn't have the pedigree, but he's not terrible on the surface. Verdasco as always can look like a world beater one week and utter garbage the next. He suffered a 1st round KO to Ivan Dodig last year and lost in the 2nd round in the other hard court Slam this season to Gabashvili.

Kyrgios over Youzhny [21]
Sure to be one of the more popular upset tries in the 1st round. You certainly have to give Kyrgios a chance here with the Russian still not in very good form. The one drawback is Kyrgios' lack of experience at this stage of the season and not much match prep this Summer.

Coric over Rosol [29]
A long week and fairly quick turnaround for Rosol could be trouble. Yes, he has a nice title from Winston-Salem to show for this past week, but will he have fuel left in the tank? Coric is very green on the surface, but advance through qualis to get to the main draw. Couple in that Rosol has never scored a win at the USO in the main draw and there's a scent of upset here.

Gabashvili over Giraldo [27]
50-50 type of match here. I do like Giraldo's game better on this surface, but he's 1-8 at the US Open.

Baghdatis over Cilic [14]
Cilic had some physical problems in Cincinnati in his loss to Stan Wawrinka. He likely is just fine heading into the week, but he's got even more to worry about with an in-form Baghdatis coming to town. Baghdatis has worked two straight titles on the Challenger circuit, so the question is whether or not he can push that level up a notch this week. Cilic has been pretty solid all year and made the Wimbledon quarters and is a two-time quarterfinalist at the US Open. Baghdatis scored an upset of Kevin Anderson last year at the USO and this is just one that comes from the gut for me.

Golubev over Fognini [15]
Simply because you don't know which Fognini is going to show up. I don't rate this very high because of that, but it's one to think about.

Nieminen over Karlovic [25]
Karlovic's level of play has not been great this Summer since Bogota. He's had some okay results in New York before, but plays with a smaller margin for error with the serve being his main weapon still. The Fin has plenty of experience to rely on, so the feeling is if he can serve well himself that this is tight and can go either way.

8.25.14 US OPEN
ATP: Rola +2.5 sets @ -140
ATP: Gimeno-Traver @ -150
ATP: Klahn-Kuznetsov Over 39.5 @ -105
ATP: Bachinger @ +305
ATP: Stakhovsky @ +161
WTA: Pironkova +1.5 sets @ -125
WTA: Lucic +1.5 sets @ +150

Either to win one unit or risking one unit
Either to win 0.5 unit or risking one unit

All lines for the tournament I am getting from BetDSI

Favorite Futures Play
Ferrer to Win Quarter @ +220

Good luck EP. Thanks for the write-ups, as always.

tailing u dos equois guy, hope ur good tomo

Bold pick with Smyczek making 4th round!

Agree with a lot of your picks but can't see that one

Weakest seeds in that section with Fognini & Bautista-Agut. One of them might step up, but looks lik a section for a weird upset. Smyczek has fared surprisingly well at the USO. Took a shot.

Thanks. Hopefully some of the expectations work out to be winning picks. Stak is sucking dong to start.